Saturday, October 13, 2007
Throwing Together Picks for Week 6
Last Week: 10 -3Overall: 45 - 30
Can you feel it? Fall has finally arrived on the East coast. And I couldn't be happier. A cold wind and a brisk fall day embraced me as I left my apartment this morning. Despite autumn's introduction this morning, baseball still monopolizes my time, thanks to the Tribe's postseason run. Yet this week, I couldn't help but note an event that illustrates the overwhelming popularity of the NFL. Last Sunday, I trudged into my local bar to take in the Browns matchup with the Patriots. As the early games neared their conclusion, a couple of baseball fans entered the bar, looking to catch Game 3 of the ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels. The bartender could not find a television that didn't have people watching the NFL game being shown. Even the Cardinals tussle with the Rams could not be changed, despite the lack of fans for either team. And it got me thinking what a huge boon fantasy football has been to the NFL's popularity. It has given football fanatics more reason to watch teams outside their favorites. No matter what teams are playing or how bad a matchup is, there will always be some individual on a particular squad that draws fans' attention. Take that Rams-Cardinals matchup for example, fantasy owners watched with vested interest as key players like Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, and Larry Fitzgerald put up good numbers in what was otherwise an ugly game.
I was just thinking to myself, "What have the Bengals been up to lately?" They certainly needed the bye week, last week after that pummeling on MNF at home against the Patriots. It's strange to be picking the Bengals who aren't very good on the road at Arrowhead but that's how far the Chiefs have fallen this year with a dreadful QB and an equally bad offensive line. Plus, the Bengals love going 7-9 or 8-8 and just missing the playoffs. They start their traditional mid-October to mid-November run this week.
This is ridiculous. What a brutal game to have to pick. But I am going to take them. I said it at the start of the year how I am not going to get caught singing
Last week at Lambeau Field, the Bears reminded fans that their defense is still a talented, ball-hawking unit as they surprised the Packers 27-20. Following their bye week, the Vikings look to Tavaris Jackson who returns after missing the previous two games with a pulled groin. Until
The Browns have shocked their fan base this year with wins against
Boy, talk of the Packers being the real deal and Brett Favre being the MVP sure slowed this week after the loss at home to the Bears. Maybe now, people can start to recognize that this team isn't as good as people want to believe. The unproven Redskins travel to
It occurred to me this week that the Eagles are in a bit more trouble than I have been willing to admit. They are 1-3 in a NFC East Division that boasts a 5-0 Cowboys team and the Giants and Redskins, both three-win teams. There aren't any gimme wins this year within the division. If the Eagles want to have any chance of clawing back into the NFC playoff race, it'll have to start this week. The season is riding on the health of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Each must stay healthy and produce for this team to have any chance.
In the NFC South, things are pretty mediocre. After the Bucs, you have the Falcons, Saints, and the David Carr-led Panthers. For the foreseeable future, the NFC South will enjoy a reserved spot as the worst division in football. There isn't another division quite like it. The NFC West? Nah, they have the Seahawks and the Cardinals are kind of competitive. The NFC North? Maybe, but deceptively decent records in that division skew the depth of miserable football that resides there. I can't take the Bucs over a talented team that finds ways to win…even when their QB throws three interceptions and looks horrendous. Titans in a close defensive struggle.
Whatever the under in this game is, take it! Here are two teams with putrid offenses. I am not sure if I've ever seen as dull a game as the one witnessed last week in
The Panthers are so desperate for a QB following injuries to Jake Delhomme and David Carr to a lesser extent that this week, they signed the ancient Vinny Testaverde who may get the start in this game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are putting along in the weak NFC West with three wins, despite the loss of Matt Leinart to a fractured collarbone. The Cardinals have the better back-up QB in Kurt Warner and a better team right now.
New England Patriots at
Critics are quick to point out that the Patriots haven’t defeated a quality opponent yet this season. Their victories have come over teams with a combined record of 7-17. But the Cowboys haven’t exactly faced the most talented teams in the league either. Their wins have come at the expense of the Giants, Dolphins, Bears, Rams, and Bills – who boast a combined record of 6-19! Don’t talk to me about the Patriots being untested. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL.
The sweeping changes that followed the 2006 season for the Oakland Raiders have paid dividends much sooner than many pundits expected. With LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas running the ball, the offense has earned a degree of respectability and were it not for a late timeout by Broncos Head Coach, Mike Shanahan, the Raiders would be 3-1. However, the Chargers found themselves in a big way last week, throttling the Broncos in
When you think about the biggest disappointments of the year, the Saints certainly take the cake. What happened to Drew Brees? His touchdown to interception ratio of 1:9 is the most shocking statistic of the season. Everything has gone wrong for the Saints. RB Deuce McAllister is out for the season, the team has committed costly penalties at key moments, and the magic of the 2006 season just isn’t there. In spite of all that, I still like the Saints to turn it around and make a run at an 8-8 season.
How about these two matchups for national television: Saints versus Seahawks and Giants versus Falcons? I can’t imagine either of these games faring well opposite postseason baseball games on TBS and Fox. The Giants haven’t convinced me that they are for real yet. However, I am not feeling that good about
Random Scott Player Fact of the Week: P Scott Player was waived by the Browns earlier this week.
Labels: cleveland browns, New England Patriots, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, Week 6 matchups
Friday, September 28, 2007
Breaking Down Week 4
Year: 28 – 20
The last weekend of September might be my favorite for that very reason. The last weekend in September brings us the final weekend of regular season baseball and ushers in the real start to fall, October. I will soon be able to fully devote my Sunday afternoons to football without concern for my fantasy baseball team, the crazy NL playoff situation, and the race for home field advantage in the AL Playoffs. Soon, football will rule the day with playoff baseball games going late into the evening. What could be better?
It’s been a slow start to the year in terms of my picks. This week, I come storming back. The Rams and Saints look like they’re in serious trouble. Fortunately for the Saints, they have a bye. The Rams, not so much to be thankful for. This week’s loser of the Giants/Eagles game will have major cause for concern as well. But without further fanfare, I present my picks for week 4.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Texans
Coming off a tough loss at home last week, the Texans visit the Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons. The game will also feature Matt Schaub’s return to Atlanta following the off-season trade that sent him to Houston. Schaub and the Texans defense will both be looking to rebound from sub-par efforts last week against Indy. The Falcons cooperate and the Texans recover with a victory. Everybody wins!
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Jets
On this week’s edition of Remember When, “Do you remember when the AFC East was competitive?" Besides the Patriots, teams in the division (Bills, Dolphins, and Jets) are 1-8 with the lone win coming when the Jets and Dolphins squared off last week. The Jets are the least terrible team out of the three. Besides being injury-riddled, the Bills have been terrible on both sides of the ball with the lone bright spot being the play of rookie RB Marshawn Lynch.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – Browns
Still riding high after their win over the Bengals two weeks ago, the Browns host their third division rival in four weeks. Nevermind that bad loss in Oakland. The Ravens strong defense likes the big play whether it be making them or allowing them. Browns QB Derek Anderson likes to throw the ball down the field. Look for a couple of big plays from Browns receivers and a few interceptions from the Browns QB. If Anderson throws more touchdowns than picks, the Browns win. A rather simple formula, don't you think?
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Rams, they lose star RB Steven Jackson to a partially-torn groin and it’s revealed that Marc Bulger is playing with two broken ribs. Nothing has gone right for the Rams who have been decimated by injuries along the offensive line and now the backfield. On the bright side, the Rams team page on NFL.com reports no injuries. Hooray. Everything must be fine. Bulger and the Rams offense will have to play as they did circa 2004 to stay close to the Cowboys this week.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins – Dolphins
In a loss last week against the Jets, I thought the Dolphins offense made some major strides. First, they (hopefully) realized that Ronnie Brown needs to be the focal point of the offense. He has great speed, can run in between the tackles, and exhibited improved pass-catching skills. Last week, he racked up 211 yards in total offense with three touchdowns. After watching each of these teams last week, I like the Dolphins’ talent on offense against a suspect Raider defense that was supposed to be the strength of the team.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Bears
To some including myself, a Bears/Lions matchup doesn’t appear all that appealing. But this game really stands out to me this week. There are a number of different angles that interest me. First, how will Brian Griese respond to his first NFL start since 2005? How will the Lions defense respond after giving up 56 points to the Eagles last week? Are the Lions the confident team that appeared in the first two games or the same old Lions who struggle to overcome adversity?
For Bears Head Coach Lovie Smith, now couldn’t be a better time to make a switch at the quarterback position. Griese will face one of the worst pass defenses in all of football this week in Detroit. The defense should be able to keep the game a low-scoring affair. I like the Bears with Griese managing the game and Bears RB Cedric Benson chewing out yards on the ground.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Packers
I think this is a dangerous game for the Packers. Are they as good as their 3-0 record? NO! As I broke down this game, I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Vikings. The Packers defense has been solid during the first three weeks of the season. Meanwhile on offense, the Packers have been dependent on QB Brett Favre as the running game has been for the most part non-existent. Going into the Metrodome where they traditionally struggle gives me pause. But the Vikings offense outside of Adrian Peterson is just atrocious.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers – Seahawks
Remember when the 49ers acted like Ashley Lelie and Darrell Jackson would cure their offensive ills and give Alex Smith the additional weapons he’d need to succeed? Three weeks into the season, Lelie is a non-factor and listed as fifth on the 49er depth chart. Jackson leads the club with 186 receiving yards, but Alex Smith and the passing game has looked out-of-sync. As a result, teams are stacking the line to stop All-Pro RB Frank Gore who managed just 39 yards rushing last week in a loss in Pittsburgh. As long as Smith struggles, the 49ers offense as a whole will struggle. The Seahawks are a better defensive team than they were a year ago. This time around, they should be able to contain Gore and the 49ers.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers – Bucs
I can’t believe I am doing it. Maybe it’ll be a curse to the team. But for the first time since Jazzy Jeff Garcia left Cleveland, I am picking his team to win. He has shocked me with his sound decision-making in the young season. He has yet to throw an interception and been a model of efficiency, completing 66% of his passes. Surprisingly for the 2-1 Panthers, the offense has outperformed the defense. New Offensive Coordinator Jeff Davidson has done an excellent job of rotating RBs’ DeShaun Foster and D’Angelo Williams. A steady mix of play-action has helped Jake Delhomme put up better-than-expected numbers too. However, Delhomme suffered a strained shoulder last week and is questionable this week. But my major concern is a defense that is allowing over 20 points and 342 yards per game. Bucs win in a squeaker.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts – Colts
To put it nicely, the Broncos have struggled against Indianapolis at the RCA Dome. In their last two games played there, (when it mattered), the Colts have defeated the Broncos by scores of 41-10 and 49-24. This week, a resurgent Colts defense that has played incredibly since the start of the 2006 playoffs faces off against Denver’s fledgling offense. Led by young QB Jay Cutler, the Broncos have moved the ball well enough and can’t be unhappy about being 2-1. However, they are struggling to score in the red zone and with as much talent as they have on the offensive side of the ball, they should be better. For instance, they are the sixth best offense in football in yards per game. Every team in the top ten in offense is averaging at least 24 points per game. The Broncos are putting up 17 per game. To have any chance in this game, they’ll need to double their current scoring average. I don’t see that happening against the Colts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals – Steelers
The unbeaten Steelers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals this week. The Steelers have been dominant in their first three games against clearly inferior opponents. This week, we’ll get a chance to see how good the Cardinals are. They’ve lost two close games at San Francisco and in Baltimore late, but sandwiched in between those losses was a big win at home against Seattle. The Cardinals must contain Willie Parker to have any chance in this one. The key to the Steelers is forcing them to beat you through the air. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has been solid but untested thus far. He is prone to making mistakes, especially on the road. Games against Oakland and Cleveland last year come to mind. The Cardinals will need a fast start against a tough defense. I expect to see former Steeler Offensive Coordinator and now Cardinals Head Coach, Ken Whisenhunt start the Cardinals in the no huddle. The Cardinals will play tough at home but through three weeks, the Steelers seem too formidable on both sides of the ball for Arizona.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers – Chargers
The Chargers return home this week after consecutive losses against New England and Green Bay. Their pass defense has been atrocious in the past two weeks while neither the offensive unit nor the defensive unit has displayed the explosiveness and play-making ability displayed in 2006. Luckily for them, they return home to sunny San Diego to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite a win last week at home against Minnesota, the Chiefs offense has played horrendously. The Chargers are looking to vent some of their frustrations from the past two games and the Chiefs should prove to be the proverbial punching bag.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants – Eagles
Is there a more entertaining division in football than the NFC East this season? You have the under-achievers, Eagles and Giants and the over-achieving Redskins and Cowboys. Thus far, the only team that looks as good or as bad as their record would seem to be the Cowboys, coming off a convincing win against the Bears at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Giants rose from the dead with 24 unanswered points and a dramatic come-from-behind victory against Washington. It was a bad loss for the ‘Skins who were in control of the game at home and let it slip away. They still had a chance late but poor clock management by QB Jason Campbell cost them a play inside the Giants five-yard line with under a minute to go. In Philadelphia, the Eagles finally played like the team everybody expected this year by crushing the Lions 56-21. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook continue to be the two keys to that offense. Each must be healthy and playing well for this team to be anything better than a Wild Card hopeful.
With that said 1-2 Philly and 1-2 New York battle on Sunday night. After their excellent second half, one wonders whether the second half was a sign of things to come for the Giant defense or an aberration. 97 points allowed through five halves of football really offsets any positives from one good half. A big question for the Eagles will be the availability of Westbrook who is questionable. If he can’t go, beating the Giants in a must-win game on the road will be much more difficult. As it stands now, I like the Eagles.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Patriots
The Bengals and their bumbling defense and special teams play host to the New England Patriots on Monday night. I don’t know where to start in criticizing the Bengals. I guess I’ll start with their special teams. They allowed 183 yards in kickoff returns against the Browns, worked all week to correct deficiencies, and then allowed a 72-yard kickoff return to start the game against Seattle. Nice work. Fumbling away the ball on a return late in the fourth quarter thus preventing one of the best QBs in football a chance to tie the game also wasn’t good. Lost in all this was a less terrible performance by the Cincinnati defense. But let’s cast all that aside and realize that this week, they host the Patriots. I expect the Bengals to put up points even with RB Rudi Johnson out of the lineup. However, I don’t see any chance of the Bengals slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots juggernaut offense.
Labels: baltimore ravens, cincinnati bengals, cleveland browns, Football, New England Patriots, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 4
Monday, September 24, 2007
Weighing in on Bill Belichick and Other Thoughts From Week 3
Settling in for another quiet day at work this morning, I made my routine visit to my fantasy league home pages, the Cleveland sports pages, CNNSI, and ESPN. What I came across on one of the league messageboards irked me tremendously. A person in our league posted these comments about Bill Belichick: "Who the hell knows if he's a good coach? We know that he's a good coach when he cheats. But what about when he has to play by the same rules as everybody else?"As a Browns' fan, my feelings for Belichick are predictably hostile. Surrounded by Patriots' fans when I was in college, I ripped Belichick whenever possible for his horrendous coaching job in Cleveland. With enough talent that SI predicted the Browns would win the conference, Cleveland's teams consistently under-achieved in Belichik's five seasons to the tune of a 36-44 record. "Spygate" has left me with mixed feelings when talking about Belichick's legacy and the Patriots' legacy under his tutelage.
I think his reputation has been tarnished in a more permanent way than many people realize. He has jeopardized his Hall of Fame candidacy due to the fact that "guardians of the Hall of Fame" (bombastic sportswriters) will now debate how much influence "ethics" should have as a category for HoF candidates. The voters didn't seem to have a problem voting for Lawrence Taylor and Michael Irvin, who were well-known for their off-the-field activities. It will be intriguing to see if the voters zero in on this incident, especially coming from a guy like Belichick who isn't known for his media-savvy.
Despite his transgressions, Bill Belichick has become one of the best Head Coaches of the modern-era. Since taking over in New England, he has done a fantastic job, hiring capable assistants and delegating responsibility to them. Coaches that got their start under Belichick include: Nick Saban, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Kirk Ferentz, and Al Groh. His speciality has always been defense. Even in Cleveland. The team had the 7th best D in 1994, and were number one in points allowed per game at 12.8. To put that in perspective, only the Ravens (12.8) and the Bears 12.4 have managed such a number in the last three seasons. The biggest mistake he made in Cleveland was trying to be the Offensive Coordinator.
Now, that I've gotten that off my chest, I offer my thoughts from yesterday's slate of games.
1. Right back to the Patriots...the only person doing a better job than Belichick in New England is Scott Pioli, VP of Player Personnel. The guy has accumulated countless picks in trades the past few seasons and netted Randy Moss, a guy who is going to rewrite the Patriots' receiving record book, for a fourth round pick!
2. The Patriots are one of the most complete teams that I've ever watched. Think hard about the best teams in the league the last five or ten seasons? I can't think of a better team. Granted, it's only been three weeks but I think we may be watching one of the most dominant teams of the modern era.
3. As disappointing as the Chargers have been, I am disgusted by the play of the St. Louis Rams. Their offense was horrible yesterday. The only thing worse was the defense. The Rams are allowing 150 plus yards a game on the ground, good enough for 28th in the NFL. I am just shocked by their start.
4. My friend remarked to me yesterday as we glanced over at the Packers/Chargers game, "Look at Tomlinson, doesn't he look angry at life right now?" CNN/SI's Don Banks thinks Larry Johnson is going to blow his top soon but L.T. may not be too far behind. For a competitor like Tomlinson to be not producing and losing, it's only a matter of time before he erupts.
5. Of all the victories for teams who were 0-2 yesterday, no victory surprised me more than the Giants in Washington. Down 17-3 and the season hanging in the balance, they found a way to score 21 unanswered points, stealing a victory from the Redskins at home.
6. Last week, I declared the Jaguars as the team most likely to frustrate people by winning games unexpectedly and losing games in much the same fashion. Seems right on, but perhaps, let's throw the Giants into that group too.
7. That might be all she wrote for lil' Rexy Grossman in Chicago.
8. The Texans are a legitimate team this year and beyond. That's good news for Houston fans who deserve a competitive team after years of ineptitude.
9. The formula for beating the Ravens is so simple. It's a real tribute to the Ravens coaching staff that rarely are teams neither able to completely stop the Ravens one-dimensional offense nor exploit their susceptible secondary.
10. Did anybody else notice the ridiculous white Fu Manchu mustache of Browns Punter Scott Player? In a word: AWESOME!
Labels: Bill Belichick, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL Week 3, Scott Player
