Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

RECORD
Week 12: 12 - 4
Overall: 86 -57

Two weeks ago following a devastating loss in which his team blew a 21 point lead, Bengals WR Chad Johnson challenged his team to overcome the adversity of losing four out of five games. He, and his team have responded emphatically with a two game winning streak coming into tonight's key divisional game with the Baltimore Ravens. In his last three games, Johnson has 573 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Following a crushing loss in which the Giants blew a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter, Michael Strahan issued a similar proclamation this week. More particularly, he questioned the effort of WR Plaxico Burress who failed to make a real attempt at preventing an interception against the Titans on Sunday. Strahan has missed the last three games, all losses, and is listed as doubtful for Sunday's showdown with the Cowboys. Like the Bengals, at home against the division-leader, the Giants must win this week. If Strahan can go, it would bolster a pass rush that was unable to seal a victory during the fourth quarter against Tennessee, enabling Vince Young to rally the Titans. In a broader scope. we'll see if either of these two teams can take a definitive step towards the playoffs in Week 13.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals

So I am back on board with this squad. But unlike the fools who seem to think Cincinnati's defense is suddenly dominant based on last week's performance turned in against the woeful Browns, I like the Bengals tonight based on their offense. In particular, the passing game is clicking right now. Three and a half weeks ago, I took the Bengals in Baltimore based on their big play capability. I am sticking with that reasoning here because the Ravens defense remains susceptible to the vertical passing game of the Bengals, especially when Cincinnati goes with their three receiver formations. Billick is bound to lose sometime, right?

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots - Patriots

The Lions may have reached a new low on Thanksgiving, losing to the Dolphins who were led by former Lions first-round pick, QB Joey Harrington. It gets even worse for the Lions who were ripped this week by the national media for their mean-spirited introduction of Harrington during pre-game warmups. So Matt Millen, how exactly do you still have your job? Without dragging politics into this column, I will just say that the relationship between Matt Millen and William Clay Ford Jr. must be something comparable to that of Donald Rumsfeld and President George Bush. There might be more to this actually. Millen and Rumsfeld came on the scene eleven days apart in January 2001. One down, the other has to fall soon. There is a limit to how much poor leadership a team or country can endure.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers - Packers

For the last few minutes, I have been trying to justify picking the Jets in this game because they are statistically the better team. I then remembered they lost to the Browns. So that cinched it for me. Packers it is. Green Bay played a whale of a half against the Seahawks. Let's see if they can play like that for a full game this week. The thing about the 2006 Jets is that they don't really have a strength. It's amazing really; they are rated in the bottom half of the league in Rushing, Passing, and Total Offense and Defense. How does this team have a winning record? For getting six Ws in eleven weeks when most thought this team would contend for the first pick in the 2007 draft, Head Coach Eric Mangini deserves consideration for Coach of the Year.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns - Chiefs

Here is something humorous for you: Peter King picked the Browns to beat the Chiefs. I can tell you a million reasons why the Browns will lose this game. However, I will give you just one: I will be unable to view this game as I am traveling to New York City this weekend. The rest of this preview was going to be dedicated to John Tait, the Chiefs offensive lineman who ended up with the ball during the last play, the second to last play I should say, in the Dwayne Rudd game. However, he now plays for Chicago. So I'll just make this wish: here is hoping that somewhere in a plush living room on Sunday, Dwayne Rudd is forced to see his bone-headed play over and over and over again. Ohh by the way, you might have heard that the Browns laid an egg last Sunday and suddenly, the team appears undisciplined, disinterested, and HORRENDOUS.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - Colts

What a job Jeff Fisher does year after year with the Titans. No matter the situation, whether a lack of talent or besieged by injuries, he always gets maximum effort from his team. The Titans refusal to quit against the Giants and stunning fourth quarter comeback ought to be reason enough for Owner Bud Adams to bring Fisher back for a twelvth season. This week, the Colts come to town, which presents a difficult task for Tennessee. However, they surprised everybody in Week 5 with a gutsy effort against the Colts, losing 14-13 on a late fourth quarter touchdown drive engineered by Peyton Manning. It will be close but c'mon.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams - Rams

The Rams finally rewarded my faith in them with a hard-fought victory over the 49ers last week. The Cardinals put forth a heck of an effort in the Metrodome last week in a 31-26 loss to the Vikings. I like the Rams to win this game because the Cardinals have one victory this season for a reason. However, I think it means something when I can honestly say that I think the Cardinals have more reasons for optimism than Cleveland. Matt Leinart is playing better of late, which is in direct relation to an offensive line that has allowed just two sacks in the last three games. A side note: I have finally given up on the Rams ever trying to get the ball downfield to Torry Holt who I traded for Texans WR Andre Johnson. Talk about desperate but Scott Linehan has built the Rams offensive scheme around Stephen Jackson, not the down-field ability of the St. Louis receivers.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins - Falcons

Do you really think we have heard the last of the Falcons? The beauty of the NFL in recent years is the fact that you can count on fifteen teams still being mathematically alive for a playoff spot in Week 17. Mark my words. In the NFC, teams like Green Bay won't be eliminated until Week 16. The Falcons will find a way to rally around Michael Vick and put together a decent defensive effort against Jason Campbell who is making his third straight start for the Redskins. The entire NFC is a great snapshot of parity at its finest. Yeah, the Bears are good and the Seahawks and Cowboys are pretty good but is anyone 100% confident in picking any from this trio to win each week? This week is a great example. Looking at trends, the Cowboys should take care of the Giants, but really? And the Bears hosting the Vikings? I could see 5 turnovers from Grossman and a Minnesota W. Seattle at Denver who is starting a rookie QB? Last time I checked, Denver was the favorite! There you go...

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Saints

Although I picked the Rams last week, I was a bit disappointed to see the 49ers lose last week on the road in St. Louis. I think this team is close to turning the corner. Although, maybe Mike Nolan is the next Butch Davis. Davis always got the most out of his teams when they were young and impressionable but proved unable to manage expectations or figure out how to take the next step. The 49ers will need a momentous effort from their defense to steal this game from the Saints. With Carolina's loss last week in Washington, they have once again exhibited their penchant for mediocrity. They have opened the door for the Saints to regain control of the division and I am not sure the Saints will relinquish the division lead again.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears - Bears

The Bears will go as far as Rex Grossman takes them. The Vikings have a very solid rush defense but their secondary is pretty ordinary. Grossman's receivers (Berrian, Muhammed, et al.) will find open spaces and I suspect the Bears QB will turn in a steady performance. The Vikings offense lacks the potential for the big play and the Bears aren't a team that gives up many sustained drives. Chester Taylor will be hard pressed to duplicate the 136 yards he put up last week versus the Cardinals.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills - Chargers

For the first time in as long as I can remember, I wished for CBS to cut coverage of the Browns game against the Bengals. And for a split second, my wish was granted. With a minute left in the Jaguars/Bills game, the game suddenly appeared as David Garrard scrambled to the Bills eight yard line. A split second later, I was watching Chuck Frye throw another incomplete pass. Long story short, the Bills played well against a playoff-caliber team in Jacksonville, pulling the upset on a last second field goal. Rumor has it that during their current two game winning streak, J.P. Losman has played pretty well. Didn't somebody say the same thing about Michael Vick after those two games against the Bengals and Steelers? We'll see how he holds up against the Chargers who will have Shawne Merriman back following his four game suspension for steroids. Tough break, J.P.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins

The Dolphins continue to justify why I picked them as my second half team to watch. But more importantly, the Jaguars continue to show the inconsistency that will ensure an interesting final week of the season in the AFC. I swear Denver and Jacksonville are determined to keep every five win team hanging around in the conference. The only difference I see between Jacksonville and Carolina right now is the fact that the Panthers still have a chance at the NFC South division crown. But each team's inability to win on the road against bottom-feeders in the league is astonishing. Neither team had any business losing against Washington and Buffalo last week who had a combined record of 7-13 before last Sunday. Two of my four losses came as a result of those games so you can understand my bitterness.

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders - Raiders

Well, this game and the Texans meeting with the Browns at the end of the season could go a long way in determining who will have the number 1 pick next April. The Texans have surprised me a little in back to back losses against New York and Buffalo the last two weeks. I thought they were really starting to put things together and I was thinking of somewhere around six to seven wins. That now seems out of reach. I know that picking the Raiders is a bold statement but they are playing hard for Art Shell of late. Tough losses against Kansas City and San Diego show that the team hasn't quit on him. Perhaps, they manage to win this weekend at home.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants - Giants

So last week, I predicted that New York would rebound from all the adversity with a win against Tennessee. Well, they were close. Unfortunately, they blew a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter. It was a monumental collapse and this week, more adversity faces the Giants. DE Michael Strahan called out Plaxico Burress, and followed that up by berating a reporter when asked about his comments. To put it bluntly, the team is a mess. Some are saying that the team has lost confidence in Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Well, I don't know if Tom Coughlin has anything to do with Eli Manning's struggles but the team has looked flat at crucial times the last few weeks. With their season on the line against the archrival Cowboys, I have a hunch the Giants will bring their A game. If Eli can regain his composure and let the game come to him, the Giants offensive weapons will start producing. Shockey, Barber, and Burress have been quiet the past few weeks. At least on the field. What about the Cowboys you ask? Dallas is playing well right but they haven't played a close game recently. I don't like their kicking situation and I like it even less now with Mike Vanderjagt gone. On top of that, this season has been filled to the brim with drama and I expect a loss at New York to continue that trend. They have to lose just to maintain the unpredictable nature the team seems to enjoy. And then they will win the division. Follow me?

Tampa Bay Bucs at Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers

And to think, the Browns could have been the ones to extinguish the playoff aspirations of the Steelers. I wonder if the Bucs have peaked and are now just waiting for the season to end. It wouldn't surprise me. They got off to a rough start from which they were never really able to recover. For the Steelers, I am curious to see how they perform now that the team is officially done. Will the veteran team pack it in as they are used to playing for something in December? What about Bill Cowher's future? I think how the team plays will give us a good idea on the approach Bill Cowher is taking towards the long-term future. Will the team coast to the finish as he retires to North Carolina with his family? We'll have to wait and see.

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos - Broncos

With ten days to prepare for the Seattle, I can't imagine Mike Shanahan having a game plan that won't produce some point on offense. I imagine he'll will renew his commitment to the running game in an attempt to protect Jay Cutler. Cutler, the first rounder out of Vanderbilt, will be making his first career start in place of the ineffective Jake Plummer. This is a big decision for the Broncos as they hold a tenuous grip on one of the two wild card spots in the AFC. Seattle, on a short week after their win on Monday night, will have a difficult time of it in boistrous Mile High. The Seahawks are just getting healthy again with Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander, showing flashes of their 2005 forms against the Packers. But I am going with the Broncos in this one. Rookie QBS have had a surprising amount of success this year and perhaps, Cutler will continue the trend.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles - Panthers

The Eagles present me with a difficult challenge the rest of the year: by starting Jeff Garcia, I am not sure I can pick them the rest of the season. He is that bad. Did you watch him Sunday night? I said it here last week that he can't throw the ball more than fifteen yards. I guess completing 19-23 swing passes is impressive. Jake Delhomme has not played up to par this season. But if he can just turn it on the next six weeks, Carolina fans will quickly forget about his struggles. This is a team that will only go as far as their quarterback. He must find a way to cut down on turnovers and do a better job of getting the ball to their receiving threats: Keyshawn Johnson and Steve Smith.


NOTE: Though this article has posted after the start of the Raven/Bengal game, you needn't worry because my picks have been uninfluenced. Let's be honest here, the games on NFL Network can be seen in what, 40 million homes? If I were the NFL, I would be concerned because they are alienating a large number of fans with this line in the sand they have taken with broadcasting companies. Needless to say, I wish I could watch the Baltimore/Cincinnati game right now...So there are my picks for Week 13.

RECORD
Week 11: 10 - 6
Overall: 74 - 53


You can't help but feel good on a Saturday evening, making your predictions for Sunday's games with three games already in the win column. Miami, Dallas, and Kansas City all delivered for me on Thursday. An important point of clarification in regards to the Thanksgiving football article. While our cable provider does offer the NFL Network, the deal does not include the airing of Thursday night games. So Browns/Steelers in 12 days may not be on in my house. My father and I continue to debate the pros and cons of DirectTV. Anyway, to sum it all up, add two more to the thousands of disgruntled fans who are upset with the NFL for putting games on their obscure and overpriced channel. Another issue I am struggling with tonight has to do with that wonderful word game, Boggle. Despite being dedicated to the daily crossword puzzles, I struggled mightily tonight in seven games of Boggle. I was defeated by my opponent 84 to 38. Mind-boggling. Anyway, I am feeling much better about this week's picks. I think I have finally emerged from that midseason funk I experienced for several weeks.

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams - Rams

Here are two teams going in opposite directions. The Rams have lost five straight while the 49ers evened their record at 5-5 with an upset win last week against the division-leading Seahawks. The 49er defense has been playing incredibly well, giving up just ten points a game during their current three game winning streak. Despite evidence to the contrary, I can't help but think we haven't heard the last of the Rams just yet. Their offensive line is struggling but Bulger continues to perform well. Their defense is cause for concern and must stop San Francisco's Frank Gore to have any chance in this game. I like the Rams offense to get back on track as St. Louis triumphs late in this, a must-win game.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons - Saints

I, like most football analysts, see and are quick to point out the Saints shortcomings. It is in style at the moment to abandon the New Orleans bandwagon, which many football pundits enjoyed riding during the first half of the season. However, I think this team, in spite of their weaknesses, has a ton of character. Veterans Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, and Drew Brees will continue to lead this team to gritty victories in the second half of the season. This is one of those games. The Falcons have major issues and though this is a must-win and at home for Atlanta, I still like New Orleans in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens - Steelers

First off, I can't stand either of these teams. Watching the Browns/Steelers game last week was devastating as usual. Another late collapse by the team that I profess to love. Anyway, I like the chances of Pittsburgh stealing this game. Their defense should be able to control the Baltimore offense, which has been playing well in recent weeks. But C'mon, this is the Ravens we are talking about. I can't help but think that Ben Roethlisberger will turn the ball over a couple of times. But Matt Stover field goals are not going to win it for the Ravens. For that reason, I like the Steelers to win a close, hard-fought contest.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins - Panthers

It was nice to see Jason Campbell play well in his first career start last week for the Redskins against Tampa Bay. I think the Redskins will finish the season the way Tampa played initially after rookie Bruce Gradkowski took over for injured QB Chris Simms. There will be some surprising wins but inconsistency and poor outings will be the norm. This game is too important for Carolina to lose. The rest of the season though will be a struggle for me with Carolina. I don't have as strong a feeling about them as I did earlier in the year. If you asked me five or six weeks ago if I liked Carolina in the divisional round in the playoffs over Chicago at Soldier Field, I wouldn't have hesitated with my affirmation. I am not so sure anymore. Their offense needs to start clicking a little better, especially on third down for me to like their chances in the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns - Bengals

The Bengals have established themselves as a weekly troublemaker to my predictions. I tried to ride them out during their slump. After watching them against Baltimore four weeks back, I finally had my fill. So I gave up on them. I was concerned with the matchup last week against New Orleans but I figured Drew Brees could handle their defense. He did throw for 510 yards but three costly interceptions helped the Bengals pull the upset. The Browns continue to break my heart, week after week, year after year. I just don't see how they can bottle up all the offensive weapons the Bengals boast. Whether it's Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, or T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Cincinnati's offense will have a good day in Cleveland. But maybe just maybe, the Browns will do something to ease the pain of fans still feeling last week's loss against Pittsburgh.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - Vikings

Typical Vikings. They provide a decent impersonation of the Wayne Fontes-era Detroit Lions. You can pretty much peg them at 8-8 every season with an outside shot at the playoffs in week 17 with a win and losses by two other teams. Their strength of schedule or talent level doesn't really matter, it's just who they are. They find a way to get back on track against the hapless Cardinals although Matt Leinart's performance last week made me a very happy person. If this game was played in Arizona, I am taking the Cards but in the Metrodome, Minnesota gets it done.

Houston Texans at New York Jets - Jets

This year, there certainly is a chasm between the good teams and the average ones. I think all the upsets this season are a result of teams playing down to their opponents. I am using this principle to explain away New York's victory over the Patriots two weeks ago. The Jets fall in the mediocre column. I was disappointed in the Texans for dropping a winnable game at home against Buffalo. I thought they were interested in a mildly successful season. Now a Top 5 pick in the 2007 NFL draft looks to be a certainty. A shame to be sure. New York wins a boring game at the Meadowlands.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills - Jaguars

Jacksonville is such an easy team to pick each week. They have a great defense, balanced offense, and are well-coached. But for some reason, once every two to three weeks, they lay an egg. I could see that happening this week but I think the weather forecast is a good omen for Jacksonville. Unseasonably warm temperatures are predicted, which seem too fortuitous for the Jaguars to let this one slip away. As long as David Garrard doesn't throw four interceptions like he did two weeks ago against the Texans, they win.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers - Chargers

Ladainian Tomlinson is kind of good. And the Broncos have fallen apart, leaving the Chargers with a pretty solid handle on the AFC West. The Raiders offense showed a spark last week with Aaron Brooks back at quarterback in place of Andrew Walter. And NO sacks allowed, a first for the Raiders offensive line this season. I am not sure that momentum, if you want to call it that, will carry over to San Diego. It is interesting to note that usually, this is the time of year when you start to get a feeling about certain teams and their chances at winning the Super Bowl. Well...I don't have any idea who I like in either conference. I don't possess any confidence in the Chargers with Phil Rivers at QB and more importantly, Marty Schottenheimer calling the shots. No matter for now, they win Sunday against Oakland.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans - Giants

The Titans are a tempting proposition this week. The Giants have been decimated by injuries and Eli Manning has looked terrible in recent weeks. In times of crisis, which the Giants currently find themselves, I take a look at the coach in trying to predict how the team will respond. Tom Coughlin is a good football coach. Having responded to and overcome adversity all season, I can't help but feel the Giants rebound against Tennessee this week after an ugly loss last week in Jacksonville on Monday night. Don't let me down Eli, you're back in my fantasy starting lineup.

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots - Patriots

Here is the game of the week. You have to like the odds that Bill Belichick will produce a defensive scheme that will bewilder the young Bear QB, Rex Grossman. He hasn't looked brilliant in several weeks, to put it nicely. Tom Brady has been prone to turnovers this season as opposed to past years. The Pats also haven't played well at home against good teams this season (see Denver and Indianapolis games). To be honest, I am taking the Patriots because I spent four years going to school in New England, watching Tom Brady guide his team to win after win over seemingly better teams. He hasn't been able to do it this year, but I am going to go with his track record in this case. The Patriots get just enough points on offense and the defense shuts down Grossman and the Bears for the win.

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts - Colts

My old friend, Jazzy Jeff makes his return to the starting lineup of an NFL team. With Donovan McNabb out for the season after a devastating knee injury last week against the Titans, Jeff Garcia takes the helm for the Eagles. They are in trouble. Jazzy Jeff is good for a couple of things: happy feet, forcing the football into tight spots, and regularly spouting off under the guise of being a competitor. Unfortunately, he can't throw a fifteen yard out pattern. Watch him, he can't. Needless to say, I like the Colts. Coming off a loss in Dallas last week, I think the Colts are going to have to adjust to the blueprint teams are using to beat them. Despite their all world QB Peyton Manning, the defense is susceptible to a physical running game. They must address this issue if they want to contend for the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks - Seahawks

That was some shootout between the Packers and Patriots last week. I am glad we got excited about that matchup between Tom Brady and Brett Favre. For people who had to watch it and weren't Patriot fans, I heard words like "brutal" and "awful" in describing the experience. I bet it was pretty similar to the Patriots/Browns game of December 2004. Lucky Luke McCown showed that he could throw the ball a long way in that game, but that was about all the entertainment that could be mustered in that game. I think the final was 42-15. Something like that. Ohh yeah, the Seahawks get back Matt Hasselbeck for this one as they look to rebound from a disappointing loss to San Francisco last week. This game should offer him the opportunity to ease back into form. Brett Favre will play as his streak of starts will remain intact. That is about the only good news for the Packers.