Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

In years past, I used to burn myself out with these ridiculously long columns predicting each game during the NFL season. In an effort to cut down on the word count, I am attempting a new format. More concise commentary or at least extensive analysis will be limited to just a few games. With that in mind, we start in on this week's picks.

SEASON: 29 - 14
LAST WEEK: 11 - 4

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA - CAROLINA

I haven't seen Atlanta play yet this season but Michael Turner does reside on one of my fantasy teams and he's been a very nice surprise thus far. Matt Ryan has managed the game very well in Atlanta's two victories, but Atlanta is a young team that will struggle all season on the road. Carolina's defense, which has yet to play well, enters this contest ranked 27th in yards allowed but will likely move up a few spots after this matchup.

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI - CLEVELAND

The Browns must win this game to save their season. Many Cleveland sportswriters said the same thing about the Pittsburgh game and again last week against Baltimore. But this time, it's true. Derek Anderson needs to play well and the Browns have to find a way to win. Anderson's job and perhaps, Crennel's could be on the line Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.

HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE - JACKSONVILLE

For some reason, Houston always plays Jacksonville tough but Houston has looked awful this season. Matt Schaub is getting hit almost as often as David Carr did when he was under center for the Texans. He's been sacked eight times and has thrown five interceptions in two games. If things don't get better Sunday against the Jaguars and it doesn't seem likely, Schaub may give way to Sage Rosenfels for the Texans home opener in Week 5 against the Rams.

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY - DENVER

Somebody dropped Selvin Young this week in one of my fantasy leagues. What was he thinking? Denver's top-ranked offense enters the game, averaging 38 points per game and this week, Young and company will have a crack at the Chiefs defense, which is allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground.

SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS - NEW ORLEANS

I think it was Rich Eisen who said earlier this week that J.T. O'Sullivan might be the Derek Anderson of 2008. O'Sullivan has gotten off to a solid start in the early going of 2008, averaging 235 yards per game passing while leading the 49ers to a 2-1 record. His counterpart this week, Drew Brees is averaging a ludicrous 327 yards per game. This game figures to be a high-scoring affair but I think the Saints at home in the Superdome are too much for San Francisco.

ARIZONA @ NEW YORK JETS - ARIZONA

I know I am going to regret this but for some reason, I am irritated by all the people in the tri-state area who continue to believe that the Jets are a potential playoff team. I don't believe the addition of Brett Favre to a 5-11 team a year ago is enough to overcome an average defense with average talent at the skill positions. That said, Arizona has an awful time winning on the road. The last time the team won more than two road games in a season was in 2001. After a tough loss in Washington last week, Ken Whisenhunt will have his team ready against the Jets Sunday.

GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY - GREEN BAY

Everybody off the Aaron Rodgers train! The media's favorite story after Week 2 came back to Earth against the Cowboys when he was sacked five times and failed to put the ball in the end zone on several trips deep into Dallas territory. Maybe, people need to calm down about Rodgers but I don't know why people are jumping on the Brian Griese bandwagon. I like Green Bay to bounce back and find a way to win this game at Raymond James Stadium, always a tough place to play.

MINNESOTA @ TENNESSEE - TENNESSEE

Gus Frerotte versus Kerry Collins...what year is this? This game features two stingy defenses that figure to play a prominent role in the outcome. Tennessee is allowing the fewest points per game in the league and they're especially tough at home. Gus Frerotte can't produce enough points for the Vikings to win this game.

SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND - SAN DIEGO

Oakland rarely receives any positive press and with their meglomaniacal owner, it's really no surprise but the team is showing signs of incremental progress. The Raiders were blown out against Denver at home the first game of the year but since then, they've played well enough to be 2-1. I am a fan of Lane Kiffin who seems to be getting the most out his young players. Of which, there are many...JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, the list goes on. It's too bad Al Davis won't keep him around long enough to enjoy the fruits of his labor.

BUFFALO @ ST LOUIS - BUFFALO

St. Louis is an absolute train wreck. Scott Linehan needs to be fired. Franchise quarterback Marc Bulger, in his second year of a $65 million dollar deal, has been benched for Trent Green and all-pro running back Steven Jackson is openly questioning the decision. There are rumors that Bulger no longer wants to play for Linehan. Sounds like the two marquee players of the franchise aren't very pleased with Linehan. I don't think that bodes well for his future. The Rams are committed to Bulger and Jackson (to the tune of $109 million), I don't think either of them are going anywhere. The same cannot be said for the coach.

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS - DALLAS

I watched the Redskins play pretty uninspired football for most of their game last week against the Cardinals. They were fortunate to get a win after letting the Cardinals recover from a 10-0 first half deficit. The Redskins will have to play much better this week on the road in Dallas just to be competitive. The Cowboys passing attack is much too strong for the Redskins suspect defense and inconsistent offense.

PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO - CHICAGO

No McNabb, No Westbrook, no chance for Philadelphia on the road in Chicago. The Bears defense was embarrassed last week by the Bucs and Brian Griese. They won't let it happen again to a backup quarterback in primetime. The Bears win in a low-scoring defensive battle.

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH - PITTSBURGH

The blueprint for defeating the Ravens remains the exact same for the tenth consecutive year. Don't turn the ball over and put eight men into the box and force whoever is playing quarterback for the Ravens to beat you through the air. The Steelers know that and will capitalize on Joe Flacco's mistakes. Baltimore's defense remains strong but the secondary is susceptible to the big play. Pittsburgh finds a way to win without Willie Parker and maybe even without Ben Roethlisberger.

Labels: baltimore ravens, Bill Belichick, bills, chicago bears, cincinnati bengals, matchups browns, NFL Week 4, steelers

Settling in for another quiet day at work this morning, I made my routine visit to my fantasy league home pages, the Cleveland sports pages, CNNSI, and ESPN. What I came across on one of the league messageboards irked me tremendously. A person in our league posted these comments about Bill Belichick: "Who the hell knows if he's a good coach? We know that he's a good coach when he cheats. But what about when he has to play by the same rules as everybody else?"

As a Browns' fan, my feelings for Belichick are predictably hostile. Surrounded by Patriots' fans when I was in college, I ripped Belichick whenever possible for his horrendous coaching job in Cleveland. With enough talent that SI predicted the Browns would win the conference, Cleveland's teams consistently under-achieved in Belichik's five seasons to the tune of a 36-44 record. "Spygate" has left me with mixed feelings when talking about Belichick's legacy and the Patriots' legacy under his tutelage.

I think his reputation has been tarnished in a more permanent way than many people realize. He has jeopardized his Hall of Fame candidacy due to the fact that "guardians of the Hall of Fame" (bombastic sportswriters) will now debate how much influence "ethics" should have as a category for HoF candidates. The voters didn't seem to have a problem voting for Lawrence Taylor and Michael Irvin, who were well-known for their off-the-field activities. It will be intriguing to see if the voters zero in on this incident, especially coming from a guy like Belichick who isn't known for his media-savvy.

Despite his transgressions, Bill Belichick has become one of the best Head Coaches of the modern-era. Since taking over in New England, he has done a fantastic job, hiring capable assistants and delegating responsibility to them. Coaches that got their start under Belichick include: Nick Saban, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Kirk Ferentz, and Al Groh. His speciality has always been defense. Even in Cleveland. The team had the 7th best D in 1994, and were number one in points allowed per game at 12.8. To put that in perspective, only the Ravens (12.8) and the Bears 12.4 have managed such a number in the last three seasons. The biggest mistake he made in Cleveland was trying to be the Offensive Coordinator.

Now, that I've gotten that off my chest, I offer my thoughts from yesterday's slate of games.

1. Right back to the Patriots...the only person doing a better job than Belichick in New England is Scott Pioli, VP of Player Personnel. The guy has accumulated countless picks in trades the past few seasons and netted Randy Moss, a guy who is going to rewrite the Patriots' receiving record book, for a fourth round pick!

2. The Patriots are one of the most complete teams that I've ever watched. Think hard about the best teams in the league the last five or ten seasons? I can't think of a better team. Granted, it's only been three weeks but I think we may be watching one of the most dominant teams of the modern era.

3. As disappointing as the Chargers have been, I am disgusted by the play of the St. Louis Rams. Their offense was horrible yesterday. The only thing worse was the defense. The Rams are allowing 150 plus yards a game on the ground, good enough for 28th in the NFL. I am just shocked by their start.

4. My friend remarked to me yesterday as we glanced over at the Packers/Chargers game, "Look at Tomlinson, doesn't he look angry at life right now?" CNN/SI's Don Banks thinks Larry Johnson is going to blow his top soon but L.T. may not be too far behind. For a competitor like Tomlinson to be not producing and losing, it's only a matter of time before he erupts.

5. Of all the victories for teams who were 0-2 yesterday, no victory surprised me more than the Giants in Washington. Down 17-3 and the season hanging in the balance, they found a way to score 21 unanswered points, stealing a victory from the Redskins at home.

6. Last week, I declared the Jaguars as the team most likely to frustrate people by winning games unexpectedly and losing games in much the same fashion. Seems right on, but perhaps, let's throw the Giants into that group too.

7. That might be all she wrote for lil' Rexy Grossman in Chicago.

8. The Texans are a legitimate team this year and beyond. That's good news for Houston fans who deserve a competitive team after years of ineptitude.

9. The formula for beating the Ravens is so simple. It's a real tribute to the Ravens coaching staff that rarely are teams neither able to completely stop the Ravens one-dimensional offense nor exploit their susceptible secondary.

10. Did anybody else notice the ridiculous white Fu Manchu mustache of Browns Punter Scott Player? In a word: AWESOME!

Labels: Bill Belichick, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL Week 3, Scott Player