Saturday, October 13, 2007
Throwing Together Picks for Week 6
Last Week: 10 -3Overall: 45 - 30
Can you feel it? Fall has finally arrived on the East coast. And I couldn't be happier. A cold wind and a brisk fall day embraced me as I left my apartment this morning. Despite autumn's introduction this morning, baseball still monopolizes my time, thanks to the Tribe's postseason run. Yet this week, I couldn't help but note an event that illustrates the overwhelming popularity of the NFL. Last Sunday, I trudged into my local bar to take in the Browns matchup with the Patriots. As the early games neared their conclusion, a couple of baseball fans entered the bar, looking to catch Game 3 of the ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels. The bartender could not find a television that didn't have people watching the NFL game being shown. Even the Cardinals tussle with the Rams could not be changed, despite the lack of fans for either team. And it got me thinking what a huge boon fantasy football has been to the NFL's popularity. It has given football fanatics more reason to watch teams outside their favorites. No matter what teams are playing or how bad a matchup is, there will always be some individual on a particular squad that draws fans' attention. Take that Rams-Cardinals matchup for example, fantasy owners watched with vested interest as key players like Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, and Larry Fitzgerald put up good numbers in what was otherwise an ugly game.
I was just thinking to myself, "What have the Bengals been up to lately?" They certainly needed the bye week, last week after that pummeling on MNF at home against the Patriots. It's strange to be picking the Bengals who aren't very good on the road at Arrowhead but that's how far the Chiefs have fallen this year with a dreadful QB and an equally bad offensive line. Plus, the Bengals love going 7-9 or 8-8 and just missing the playoffs. They start their traditional mid-October to mid-November run this week.
This is ridiculous. What a brutal game to have to pick. But I am going to take them. I said it at the start of the year how I am not going to get caught singing
Last week at Lambeau Field, the Bears reminded fans that their defense is still a talented, ball-hawking unit as they surprised the Packers 27-20. Following their bye week, the Vikings look to Tavaris Jackson who returns after missing the previous two games with a pulled groin. Until
The Browns have shocked their fan base this year with wins against
Boy, talk of the Packers being the real deal and Brett Favre being the MVP sure slowed this week after the loss at home to the Bears. Maybe now, people can start to recognize that this team isn't as good as people want to believe. The unproven Redskins travel to
It occurred to me this week that the Eagles are in a bit more trouble than I have been willing to admit. They are 1-3 in a NFC East Division that boasts a 5-0 Cowboys team and the Giants and Redskins, both three-win teams. There aren't any gimme wins this year within the division. If the Eagles want to have any chance of clawing back into the NFC playoff race, it'll have to start this week. The season is riding on the health of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Each must stay healthy and produce for this team to have any chance.
In the NFC South, things are pretty mediocre. After the Bucs, you have the Falcons, Saints, and the David Carr-led Panthers. For the foreseeable future, the NFC South will enjoy a reserved spot as the worst division in football. There isn't another division quite like it. The NFC West? Nah, they have the Seahawks and the Cardinals are kind of competitive. The NFC North? Maybe, but deceptively decent records in that division skew the depth of miserable football that resides there. I can't take the Bucs over a talented team that finds ways to win…even when their QB throws three interceptions and looks horrendous. Titans in a close defensive struggle.
Whatever the under in this game is, take it! Here are two teams with putrid offenses. I am not sure if I've ever seen as dull a game as the one witnessed last week in
The Panthers are so desperate for a QB following injuries to Jake Delhomme and David Carr to a lesser extent that this week, they signed the ancient Vinny Testaverde who may get the start in this game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are putting along in the weak NFC West with three wins, despite the loss of Matt Leinart to a fractured collarbone. The Cardinals have the better back-up QB in Kurt Warner and a better team right now.
New England Patriots at
Critics are quick to point out that the Patriots haven’t defeated a quality opponent yet this season. Their victories have come over teams with a combined record of 7-17. But the Cowboys haven’t exactly faced the most talented teams in the league either. Their wins have come at the expense of the Giants, Dolphins, Bears, Rams, and Bills – who boast a combined record of 6-19! Don’t talk to me about the Patriots being untested. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL.
The sweeping changes that followed the 2006 season for the Oakland Raiders have paid dividends much sooner than many pundits expected. With LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas running the ball, the offense has earned a degree of respectability and were it not for a late timeout by Broncos Head Coach, Mike Shanahan, the Raiders would be 3-1. However, the Chargers found themselves in a big way last week, throttling the Broncos in
When you think about the biggest disappointments of the year, the Saints certainly take the cake. What happened to Drew Brees? His touchdown to interception ratio of 1:9 is the most shocking statistic of the season. Everything has gone wrong for the Saints. RB Deuce McAllister is out for the season, the team has committed costly penalties at key moments, and the magic of the 2006 season just isn’t there. In spite of all that, I still like the Saints to turn it around and make a run at an 8-8 season.
How about these two matchups for national television: Saints versus Seahawks and Giants versus Falcons? I can’t imagine either of these games faring well opposite postseason baseball games on TBS and Fox. The Giants haven’t convinced me that they are for real yet. However, I am not feeling that good about
Random Scott Player Fact of the Week: P Scott Player was waived by the Browns earlier this week.
Labels: cleveland browns, New England Patriots, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, Week 6 matchups
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Picking Week 5 and Digressions about Week 4 and Scott Player!
Last Week: 7 – 7Season: 35 - 27
For the first time since I was a senior in high school, the Indians will play October baseball. Often questioned whether I was a bigger Browns or Indian fan, I always replied that it depended on the year. During the mid-1990s when the Indians were so good, the Browns weren’t around. And the brown and orange have been so bad since their return that never have I encountered the predicament that I now face. With the Indians opening tonight against the Yankees and further energized by a couple of coffees, it’s a struggle to focus. Thirty minutes later….alright, so I just watched the Braylon Edwards 78-yard touchdown reception against the Ravens about a half dozens times, I am focused and ready to forge ahead with my picks for Week 5.
I was talking to a friend of mine recently who is a huge Red Sox and Patriots fan. He said: “Boy, they made it look so easy. It didn’t even seem like that big of a deal…it was kind of anti-climactic.” He is talking about:
- the Patriots domination over the Chargers in Week 2
- the Patriots domination over the Bengals in Week 4
- Game 1 of the Division Series between the Red Sox and Angels.
- All of the Above.
Now imagine his surprise, when Derek Anderson (the D.A. who is prosecuting defenses across the land) shocks his Patriots in Foxboro. Only in my dreams I’m afraid.
I know they haven’t played since Week 3 and so I haven’t had a chance to comment about it, but the Titans really took it to the Saints in the Superdome a few weeks back. The Falcons meanwhile surprised the Texans for their first win of the season. The offense looks much better in the last two weeks. However, I really like how the Titans are playing and they’ll be prepared with the extra week to stop Joey Harrington and the Falcons.
Quick thoughts about everybody who is belittling Matt Leinart, especially Peter King…
- It’s rare that a player like Leinart will speak his mind to the media but he certainly won’t do that any more thanks to Michael Silver.
- You want your QB to be confident and want the ball in his hands when the game is on the line.
- I find it very bizarre that somebody as media-savvy as the young QB would make comments like that in a dinner with a columnist. He must have known those would come out. Big mistake.
- I like Leinart and think he’s going to be a great player. Sharing his inner thoughts about the situation was a mistake. However, I found the article by Silver interesting and enlightening thanks in part to the former Heisman winner’s honesty.
Gus Frerotte is starting for the Rams! I had to double-check the spelling of his name. Your team was expected to compete for a division championship Coach Linehan and at 0-4, you’re nearly dead. Is Gus Frerotte a better option than Marc Bulger at 75%? The way this season is going; Frerotte pulls off a Warner-esque job replacing Bulger.
Alright
Wow, was David Carr, and the entire Panther team for that matter, terrible last week or what? I was fooled into thinking this team could still win with or without Delhomme. Word on the street has
I like the Giants for one reason: home-field advantage. No but seriously, I like the Giants because I think they’re more likely to win. Okay, that wasn’t serious either. To be honest, it’s a tossup game, of which few have gone in my favor. I’ll take the Giants based on their defense…and the Jets defense…which is poor.
In the last several years, these are the kind of games people build up that end up a disappointment. Sure, the Seahawks look good but let’s be honest. The AFC’s top teams are head and shoulders above the NFC with the possible exception of the Cowboys. The Seahawks will have difficulty running the ball this week against the Steelers. Balance is the key to the NFC’s third best offense. The Steelers do an excellent job, stopping the run led by Nose Tackle Casey Hampton who is a rather large man. This game will be like Super Bowl XL: a boring, lackluster Steeler victory.
The Lions happen to be 3-1 but they haven’t looked particularly inspiring with the exception of the fourth quarter in the
Who would have ever thought the Dolphins defense could be so bad? It’s disappointing to watch. I thought they would bounce back at home last week against the Raiders but their defense was a joke. The front seven is getting blown off the ball and it certainly doesn’t help when Zach Thomas is hurt. The Dolphins are in trouble and it might soon be time to make a change at QB for no other reason than an audition for 2008. Coming off a disappointing loss against
Year in and year out, the Colts find a way to win. It’s pretty impressive. Although when you have one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, it sure makes things easier. Colts are banged up on both sides of the ball with key injuries to Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai. If Sanders doesn’t play, the Colts run defense becomes very porous. However, Manning will find a way to win this game, outscoring Jeff Garcia and the Bucs offense.
Let’s go back to greatest quarterbacks ever debate. How spoiled are NFL fans right now? We are watching three of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game currently. Granted, Brett Favre is in the final stages of his Hall of Fame career. But when you look at Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, you’re looking at two QBs who are as good as they come. I think Brady will be compared to Joe Montana when he’s done. His focus and determination are unparalleled. With Manning, I think what’s most amazing about him is how much he studies and understands the game. His ability to identify defensive schemes at the line of scrimmage is the most amazing (and annoying) characteristic of his game.
I don’t know what to think about either of these teams. The Broncos lost a hard-fought game last week after a lackluster effort against the Jaguars at home the week before. Meanwhile, the Chargers have looked just terrible in three straight losses. Everybody keeps talking about how talented the Chargers are but things just aren’t clicking right now. I don’t particularly like the Broncos as nothing hurts a team’s chances of winning more than settling for field goals in the red zone and that has defined this team’s season thus far. But they’re at home this week in a must win against a division rival. I expect them to win a hard-fought game on a late field-goal by Jason Elam. Sound familiar?
I have been screaming at the top of my lungs that this Ravens team is just not that good. Their defense is stout as always but so susceptible to the big play. Last week, they were really never in the game against
Well, I think the Bears may have hit rock bottom last week. The Bears were in control of a rather ugly game at Ford Field last week 13-3 headed into the fourth quarter. 34 Lions points later, the Bears defense had shown they were about as dependable as Rex Grossman. The question has become, “What now?” And I don’t there is an easy answer. Brian Griese clearly isn’t the answer at QB but you can’t really go back to Grossman now. It’s a perfect mess in
This game could be similar to those Super Bowls back in the early 90s…except the Bills were actually good back then. To the Bills defense, they played very well against a very under-whelming Jets squad. This week, they play the best the NFC has to offer. I don’t think the Bills can hang with Tony Romo and the Cowboys, especially with the rookie QB Trent Edwards at the helm.
This week, we’re adding a new feature this week. It’s called the Scott Player Fact of the Week. This week’s fact:
Did you know that Scott Player made the Pro Bowl in 2000? Shocking…
Labels: Football, National Football League, NFL, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL week 5
Friday, September 28, 2007
Breaking Down Week 4
Year: 28 – 20
The last weekend of September might be my favorite for that very reason. The last weekend in September brings us the final weekend of regular season baseball and ushers in the real start to fall, October. I will soon be able to fully devote my Sunday afternoons to football without concern for my fantasy baseball team, the crazy NL playoff situation, and the race for home field advantage in the AL Playoffs. Soon, football will rule the day with playoff baseball games going late into the evening. What could be better?
It’s been a slow start to the year in terms of my picks. This week, I come storming back. The Rams and Saints look like they’re in serious trouble. Fortunately for the Saints, they have a bye. The Rams, not so much to be thankful for. This week’s loser of the Giants/Eagles game will have major cause for concern as well. But without further fanfare, I present my picks for week 4.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Texans
Coming off a tough loss at home last week, the Texans visit the Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons. The game will also feature Matt Schaub’s return to Atlanta following the off-season trade that sent him to Houston. Schaub and the Texans defense will both be looking to rebound from sub-par efforts last week against Indy. The Falcons cooperate and the Texans recover with a victory. Everybody wins!
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Jets
On this week’s edition of Remember When, “Do you remember when the AFC East was competitive?" Besides the Patriots, teams in the division (Bills, Dolphins, and Jets) are 1-8 with the lone win coming when the Jets and Dolphins squared off last week. The Jets are the least terrible team out of the three. Besides being injury-riddled, the Bills have been terrible on both sides of the ball with the lone bright spot being the play of rookie RB Marshawn Lynch.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – Browns
Still riding high after their win over the Bengals two weeks ago, the Browns host their third division rival in four weeks. Nevermind that bad loss in Oakland. The Ravens strong defense likes the big play whether it be making them or allowing them. Browns QB Derek Anderson likes to throw the ball down the field. Look for a couple of big plays from Browns receivers and a few interceptions from the Browns QB. If Anderson throws more touchdowns than picks, the Browns win. A rather simple formula, don't you think?
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Rams, they lose star RB Steven Jackson to a partially-torn groin and it’s revealed that Marc Bulger is playing with two broken ribs. Nothing has gone right for the Rams who have been decimated by injuries along the offensive line and now the backfield. On the bright side, the Rams team page on NFL.com reports no injuries. Hooray. Everything must be fine. Bulger and the Rams offense will have to play as they did circa 2004 to stay close to the Cowboys this week.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins – Dolphins
In a loss last week against the Jets, I thought the Dolphins offense made some major strides. First, they (hopefully) realized that Ronnie Brown needs to be the focal point of the offense. He has great speed, can run in between the tackles, and exhibited improved pass-catching skills. Last week, he racked up 211 yards in total offense with three touchdowns. After watching each of these teams last week, I like the Dolphins’ talent on offense against a suspect Raider defense that was supposed to be the strength of the team.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Bears
To some including myself, a Bears/Lions matchup doesn’t appear all that appealing. But this game really stands out to me this week. There are a number of different angles that interest me. First, how will Brian Griese respond to his first NFL start since 2005? How will the Lions defense respond after giving up 56 points to the Eagles last week? Are the Lions the confident team that appeared in the first two games or the same old Lions who struggle to overcome adversity?
For Bears Head Coach Lovie Smith, now couldn’t be a better time to make a switch at the quarterback position. Griese will face one of the worst pass defenses in all of football this week in Detroit. The defense should be able to keep the game a low-scoring affair. I like the Bears with Griese managing the game and Bears RB Cedric Benson chewing out yards on the ground.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Packers
I think this is a dangerous game for the Packers. Are they as good as their 3-0 record? NO! As I broke down this game, I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Vikings. The Packers defense has been solid during the first three weeks of the season. Meanwhile on offense, the Packers have been dependent on QB Brett Favre as the running game has been for the most part non-existent. Going into the Metrodome where they traditionally struggle gives me pause. But the Vikings offense outside of Adrian Peterson is just atrocious.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers – Seahawks
Remember when the 49ers acted like Ashley Lelie and Darrell Jackson would cure their offensive ills and give Alex Smith the additional weapons he’d need to succeed? Three weeks into the season, Lelie is a non-factor and listed as fifth on the 49er depth chart. Jackson leads the club with 186 receiving yards, but Alex Smith and the passing game has looked out-of-sync. As a result, teams are stacking the line to stop All-Pro RB Frank Gore who managed just 39 yards rushing last week in a loss in Pittsburgh. As long as Smith struggles, the 49ers offense as a whole will struggle. The Seahawks are a better defensive team than they were a year ago. This time around, they should be able to contain Gore and the 49ers.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers – Bucs
I can’t believe I am doing it. Maybe it’ll be a curse to the team. But for the first time since Jazzy Jeff Garcia left Cleveland, I am picking his team to win. He has shocked me with his sound decision-making in the young season. He has yet to throw an interception and been a model of efficiency, completing 66% of his passes. Surprisingly for the 2-1 Panthers, the offense has outperformed the defense. New Offensive Coordinator Jeff Davidson has done an excellent job of rotating RBs’ DeShaun Foster and D’Angelo Williams. A steady mix of play-action has helped Jake Delhomme put up better-than-expected numbers too. However, Delhomme suffered a strained shoulder last week and is questionable this week. But my major concern is a defense that is allowing over 20 points and 342 yards per game. Bucs win in a squeaker.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts – Colts
To put it nicely, the Broncos have struggled against Indianapolis at the RCA Dome. In their last two games played there, (when it mattered), the Colts have defeated the Broncos by scores of 41-10 and 49-24. This week, a resurgent Colts defense that has played incredibly since the start of the 2006 playoffs faces off against Denver’s fledgling offense. Led by young QB Jay Cutler, the Broncos have moved the ball well enough and can’t be unhappy about being 2-1. However, they are struggling to score in the red zone and with as much talent as they have on the offensive side of the ball, they should be better. For instance, they are the sixth best offense in football in yards per game. Every team in the top ten in offense is averaging at least 24 points per game. The Broncos are putting up 17 per game. To have any chance in this game, they’ll need to double their current scoring average. I don’t see that happening against the Colts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals – Steelers
The unbeaten Steelers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals this week. The Steelers have been dominant in their first three games against clearly inferior opponents. This week, we’ll get a chance to see how good the Cardinals are. They’ve lost two close games at San Francisco and in Baltimore late, but sandwiched in between those losses was a big win at home against Seattle. The Cardinals must contain Willie Parker to have any chance in this one. The key to the Steelers is forcing them to beat you through the air. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has been solid but untested thus far. He is prone to making mistakes, especially on the road. Games against Oakland and Cleveland last year come to mind. The Cardinals will need a fast start against a tough defense. I expect to see former Steeler Offensive Coordinator and now Cardinals Head Coach, Ken Whisenhunt start the Cardinals in the no huddle. The Cardinals will play tough at home but through three weeks, the Steelers seem too formidable on both sides of the ball for Arizona.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers – Chargers
The Chargers return home this week after consecutive losses against New England and Green Bay. Their pass defense has been atrocious in the past two weeks while neither the offensive unit nor the defensive unit has displayed the explosiveness and play-making ability displayed in 2006. Luckily for them, they return home to sunny San Diego to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite a win last week at home against Minnesota, the Chiefs offense has played horrendously. The Chargers are looking to vent some of their frustrations from the past two games and the Chiefs should prove to be the proverbial punching bag.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants – Eagles
Is there a more entertaining division in football than the NFC East this season? You have the under-achievers, Eagles and Giants and the over-achieving Redskins and Cowboys. Thus far, the only team that looks as good or as bad as their record would seem to be the Cowboys, coming off a convincing win against the Bears at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Giants rose from the dead with 24 unanswered points and a dramatic come-from-behind victory against Washington. It was a bad loss for the ‘Skins who were in control of the game at home and let it slip away. They still had a chance late but poor clock management by QB Jason Campbell cost them a play inside the Giants five-yard line with under a minute to go. In Philadelphia, the Eagles finally played like the team everybody expected this year by crushing the Lions 56-21. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook continue to be the two keys to that offense. Each must be healthy and playing well for this team to be anything better than a Wild Card hopeful.
With that said 1-2 Philly and 1-2 New York battle on Sunday night. After their excellent second half, one wonders whether the second half was a sign of things to come for the Giant defense or an aberration. 97 points allowed through five halves of football really offsets any positives from one good half. A big question for the Eagles will be the availability of Westbrook who is questionable. If he can’t go, beating the Giants in a must-win game on the road will be much more difficult. As it stands now, I like the Eagles.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Patriots
The Bengals and their bumbling defense and special teams play host to the New England Patriots on Monday night. I don’t know where to start in criticizing the Bengals. I guess I’ll start with their special teams. They allowed 183 yards in kickoff returns against the Browns, worked all week to correct deficiencies, and then allowed a 72-yard kickoff return to start the game against Seattle. Nice work. Fumbling away the ball on a return late in the fourth quarter thus preventing one of the best QBs in football a chance to tie the game also wasn’t good. Lost in all this was a less terrible performance by the Cincinnati defense. But let’s cast all that aside and realize that this week, they host the Patriots. I expect the Bengals to put up points even with RB Rudi Johnson out of the lineup. However, I don’t see any chance of the Bengals slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots juggernaut offense.
Labels: baltimore ravens, cincinnati bengals, cleveland browns, Football, New England Patriots, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 4
Friday, September 21, 2007
Picks are In for Week 3
Season: 19 – 13
What a week it was in the NFL this past Sunday with numerous upsets, thrilling finishes, and out-of-nowhere performances. On to Week 3 now and I have to say, prognosticators like myself are growing concerned about teams off to slow starts while eying 2-0 teams, looking to separate the pretenders from the contenders. A trio of teams in the NFC who were popular picks to win the conference currently sport records of 0-2. One of those teams is the Saints whose defense has allowed 65 points in two games. There offense is another issue which I'll address later. The other two are the Rams and Eagles. The Eagles have traditionally started strong, owning a 7-2 record the past three seasons in the month of September. QB Donovan McNabb has appeared sluggish and a bit rusty following a grotesque knee injury last season. Usually a team tough to beat at home, St. Louis has lost two games in a row at the Edward Jones Dome in which they were the favorites. The rush defense, a question mark coming into the season, has been exploited in both losses. Each of these teams need a win in Week 3 as 0-3 is a hole from which, few teams recover.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Patriots
Bills QB J.P. Losman is in desperate need of a good game, star receiver Lee Evans has just 22 yards receiving, and the Bills offense has looked wretched in the first two weeks. Unfortunately for Buffalo, they travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. New England's defense stymied the Chargers last week, forcing three turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The news doesn't get any better on the other side of the ball either. The Bills defense will try to slow down the best offense in football thus far led by Tom Brady who is completely nearly 80% of his passes. New England has won each of their first two games by a score of 38-14. That could be a conservative prediction for this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers
The 49ers travel to Heinz Field to take on the 2-0 Steelers who thrashed Buffalo last week 26-3. The Steelers face there first real test of the young season against San Francisco who will rely heavily upon RB Frank Gore who turned in a gutsy effort against the Rams last week. Just days after his mother's funeral and suffering from a leg strain, the 3rd year man out Miami scored twice including an electrifying 43-yard scamper on fourth-and-1. The 49ers are 2-0 in spite of QB Alex Smith who has struggled thus far. The Steelers will challenge the young QB with an array of blitzes. Smith must not turn the ball over to have any chance in pulling off the upset. The Steelers prove too tough at home.
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens – Cardinals
The formula for success against the Ravens is simple. Stop the run, force whichever mediocre QB the Ravens have under center to throw, and don't turn the ball. If the Cardinals can do this, I believe they can grind out a win.
San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers – Chargers
The Packers defense has proven to be a force in the first two weeks of the season. This week, they face their biggest test when Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers come to town. Chargers win a tough game on the road late.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – Colts
The Texans have never beaten the Colts. This game, they'll play Peyton Manning's squad tough but the absence of Matt Schaub's favorite target, Andre Johnson will certainly hurt their chances.
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs – Chiefs
Tarvaris Jackson is a turnover machine. Last week, Minnesota lost a heart-breaker in Detroit thanks in large part to Jackson's four interceptions. The Chiefs have looked horrendous as well but at home, they should be able to grind out a win against the turnover-prone Vikings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks – Seahawks
One would think 72 points in a team's first two games would be good enough for a 2-0 record. Not so for the Bengals. Cincinnati's offense led by QB Carson Palmer looks as potent as ever but unfortunately, the defense is once again as bad as the offense is good. The Seahawks defense should slow down the Bengals offense just enough to escape with a victory.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders – Browns
What do QB Derek Anderson and the Browns have for an encore following their 51-point outburst against Cincinnati? We'll find out Sunday in Oakland. Derek Anderson went from a backup QB turned starter with a short leash to AFC Player of the Week following his 5 TD performance against the Bengals. They'll be going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league in the Raiders. After watching the game last week, it's hard not to like the weapons the Browns have on offense.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Jets
This is a must win game for a pair of 0-2 teams. A win for one of the starting QBs is just as important as both Chad Pennington and Trent Green are fighting to stave off challenges from recent draft picks. For the loser of this game, the calls for his backup will only get louder.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles
When the schedule came out, most experts probably thought this would be a matchup of a 2-0 team and a 0-2 team. However, few must have thought that the 0-2 team would be the Eagles. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offense have managed just one touchdown through eight quarters of play. On the other hand, Kicker David Akers is making fantasy owners happy with six field goals thus far. The Lions, 2-0, face a stiff challenge, traveling to Philadelphia in hopes of their first 3-0 start since 1980.
St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs – Rams
A revamped defense and All-Pro RB Steven Jackson were supposed to lead the Rams back into the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Through two games, Jackson has been bottled up. But the real problem is on the defensive side of the ball. Head Coach Scott Linehan thought he had addressed the run defense when he drafted DE Adam Carriker with their first pick in the 2007 draft. Unfortunately, the former Nebraska Cornhusker has been outmuscled, contributing only 3 tackles through two games. The Rams are giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Jeff Garcia has played mistake free football thus far for Tampa but that will come to an end this week. The Rams need this game too much not to have it.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos - Broncos
Jacksonville travels to Denver this week to take on the Broncos who are incredibly fortunate to be 2-0 instead of 0-2. First, there was the Chinese Fire Drill-esque kick against Buffalo. With no timeouts left, the Field Goal unit rushed onto the field, managing to snap the ball just as time expired as K Jason Elam sent the ball through the uprights for a 15-14 win. In overtime last week, they called timeout just as Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski kicked a game-winning field goal. Do over. Janikowski’s second try hits the left upright. Broncos Elam booted the winning field goal on the ensuing possession. This week, the Broncos host the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense must shut down the cutback lanes that were exploited by Tennessee’s Chris Brown in Week 1 to the tune of 175 yards. The Broncos’ zone-blocking scheme will give the Jaguars fits all day.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Panthers
Every time I checked in on the Falcons/Jaguars last week, Falcon QB Joey Harrington was getting sacked. He’s been sacked 13 times in just sixty-five dropbacks. That’s twenty percent of the time! Head Coach Bobby Petrino’s offense stresses three-step drops and quick passes. Harrington must get rid of the ball. It doesn’t figure to get any better this week as the Falcons face DE Julius Peppers and the Carolina Panther’s defense.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Redskins
Giants Head Coach Tom Coughlin entered the season, knowing that he was on the hot seat. But could he have ever expected the seat to get this hot this quickly? A stout defense has always been a staple of Coughlin-coached teams but the Giants defense has been atrocious thus far giving up eighty-points through two games. The injury bug hit the Giants, especially hard but the snake-bit Giants have already lost their starting RB while QB Eli Manning and lone receiving threat Plaxico Burress try to play through their own injuries. The Giants will have to come up with a Herculean effort to defeat the Redskins this Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Cowboys
I feel pretty stupid having not picked the Cowboys to be at the top of the NFC. In the vastly weaker conference, each contender had major issues coming into the season. The Seahawks had Shaun Alexander coming back from an injury-riddled 2006 campaign. The Saints had a very suspect pass defense. The Eagles had Donovan McNabb attempting to return from a serious knee injury. The Bears have Rex Grossman as their QB. The Cowboys This is a tough pick this week but I can’t in good conscience take the Bears with Wild-Eyed Rexy running the show. He has been terrible in his first two starts and it doesn’t figure to get much better this week.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints – Saints
This game is a must win for the Saints. They’re at home after two tough road games but they face a well-coached Titans team that nearly beat the Colts last week. Somebody recently said something about Vince Young that I thought was pretty accurate: “It’s never pretty with Vince Young but they’re never out of the game with him either.” Seems about right to me…especially on turf. New Orleans needs this game. I think they’ll make more of an effort to run the ball in order to open up the vertical passing game. Head Coach Sean Payton is a good game-planner and I think he’ll find a way to neutralize Young and get a Saints victory.
Labels: National Football League, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 3, Pro Pick
Friday, September 14, 2007
Chargers Head to Foxboro and More; Week 2 Picks
Record after Week 1
Week: 10-6
Season: 10-6
5 Things I learned from Week 1:
1. No matter how much I love the Browns, I can't pick them in any game against a team that was better than 5-11 a year ago.
2. Randy Moss looked unstoppable on the field for the first time since he was in Minnesota. He may shatter most of New England's single season receiving records. He was scary good against the Jets. Kind of like this Randy Moss mask.
3. The Texans look to be a dark-horse candidate for a AFC Wild Card spot. Their defense is young, opportunistic, and talented.
4. Ben Roethlisberger will not throw for four touchdowns in a game again this season. Mark it down. It's not happening. He completed twelves passes on Sunday and had a completion percentage just a notch above fifty percent. Sorry Peter King, he is not a Pro Bowl Quarterback.
5. Of all the quarterbacks looking to take their game to the next level, (J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, to name a few) Jay Cutler may be the one most likely to do so. He has a ton of talent surrounding him and a solid running game. He still needs to learn how to put the ball in the endzone. He won't win many games 15-14. But a 300 yard passing effort on the road and more importantly, a victory, is a good way to start for the second year player out of Vanderbilt.
Now on to this week's games...
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers - Panthers
This game is particularly difficult for me to pick because I have adopted the Texans as my out-of-nowhere playoff contender. Their offense isn't where they want it to be whose is after one week. Besides with a revamped offensive line that only allowed two sack on Sunday and a new RB and QB in Ahman Green and Matt Schaub, it will be a few weeks before the team's offense really begins to jell. You have to like their defense. They were quick to the ball on Sunday and opportunistic, forcing four turnovers and collecting three sacks. Granted it was the Chiefs but look for more of the same throughout the year. Enough fawning over the Texans, I like the Panthers in a physical game. Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage will win this game. I like the talented Panthers front four to stymie the Texans run game. I think the Panthers tandem of D'Angelo Williams and DeShaun Foster will wear the Houston defense. I see a late field goal by John Kasey being the difference in this one.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns - Bengals
The only reason Browns fans have to go games for the rest of the season is the possibility of seeing rookie QB Brady Quinn. Already hailed as the soon-to-be savior of the franchise, look for Browns fans to begin the chant early in the first half. In lieu of last week's debacle against bitter rival Pittsburgh, the Browns made a flurry of decisions. First, they traded Charlie Frye; second, they installed Derek Anderson the starting QB, and third, resigned Quinn's mentor Ken Dorsey after he was cut at the end of the preseason. This might seem like a team in chaos considering Frye was named the starter after a long training camp battle and then pulled after a quarter and unceremoniously traded two days later. But Head Coach Romeo Crennel assures fans that there is a plan. For the sake of Browns fans, let's hope it includes starting Brady Quinn sooner rather than later. Bengals by a couple touchdowns as the Browns will be hard-pressed to match last week's show of incompetence.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans - Colts
Until somebody proves otherwise, the Colts are the class of the AFC South. Since the NFL divided each conference into four divisions, the Colts have gone 23-7 against AFC South opponents. Not bad. Until somebody knocks them off, I will steadfastly remain in the Colts corner. A talented team that is up and coming, the Titans hope to be the team that challenges the Colts for divisional supremacy. The last time these two teams met, the Titans stunned the Colts, winning on a dramatic 60-yard field goal from Ron Bironas as time expired. The Titans will employ a similar strategy to the one they had last year. Control the clock by running the ball, wear down the Colts defense, and most importantly, keep Peyton Manning off the field. I think they will execute their plan successfully but in the end, it's too hard to go against Peyton Manning. Especially when you have Vince Young across the ball who in his second season, lacks the consistency and sound decision-making that is needed to beat a superior team like the Colts.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs - Saints
Wouldn't be interesting if the Bucs upset the Saints this week? All of a sudden, the most trendy pick for NFC Super Bowl is in an 0-2 hole and people are suddenly questioning the team's offensive strategy. I am not saying it's going to happen but it would make for interesting reading. I can certainly imagine Peter King and Don Banks of SI piecing together a thousand word analysis on the team's struggles. Back to the game, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia simply cannot function outside a pure West Coast offense. If he isn't in the Eagles offense under Andy Reid or the 49ers scheme under Steve Mariucci, the guy is a QB with average arm strength who makes poor decisions with the football. I don't believe him to be a good fit in Tampa. He did little to prove me wrong last week as the Bucs offense produced just six points in a loss to Seattle. The Saints should come out firing after a bad loss at Indianapolis a week ago. Look for them to establish the running game early on in an effort to control the line of scrimmage. I also suspect they will challenge the Bucs secondary with a vertical passing attack. I found that to be one of the most surprising things to come out of last week's loss against the Colts. I can't remember a single throw by Drew Brees that was over fifteen yards. Look for that to change this week against the Bucs.
San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams - Rams
The Rams look to rebound after a disappointing loss at home last week against the Panthers. Their defense really struggled last week against Carolina, allowing 186 yards on the ground and three touchdown passes from Panther QB Jake Delhomme. Throughout the preseason, the Rams claimed that first round pick DE Adam Carriker would shore up the porous run defense the Rams had last season. If one game is any indication, Carriker and the Rams are going to see teams pounding the ball between the tackles in an effort to control the game and keep the Rams talented offense off the field. It sure worked for Carolina as they controlled the ball for almost sixty percent of the game. This week, the Rams host the 49ers in what becomes an important game for the Rams who can ill-afford two straight losses at home to start the season. Last season, Frank Gore averaged 178 yard per game in his two matchups against St. Louis. Expect the 49ers to give him the ball early and often. If you have Gore this week in fantasy, you can anticipate a 100 yard plus day with a couple of touchdowns. However, I am taking the Rams in this game. They really need this game and will put eight man in the box in an effort to stop Gore and force 49er QB Alex Smith to win the game with his arm.
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers
What a tough opening week it was for the Bills. They played a hard-fought game at home before losing a heart-breaker 15-14 against the Broncos as Jason Elam nailed a 42-yard field goal as time expired. Trumping the loss was a devastating injury to backup TE Kevin Everett who suffered a spinal cord injury midway through the second half. He lay motionless on the field for several minutes before being carted off the field. This week, the Bills travel to Heinz Field to battle the Steelers. Aaron Schobel and the Bills front seven will face a stiff challenge in trying to stop Willie Parker and the Steelers rushing attack. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills must not turn the ball over to have a chance in this game. J.P. Losman struggled mightily last week at home against Denver. He must connect with Lee Evans on a couple of deep balls to pull the upset. Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh is too tough at home for the Bills. I do think it will be a close game. I think the Bills will wake up Monday morning thinking that their 0-2 record could easily be 2-0 if not for a couple of plays.
Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants - Packers
The Packers travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants in New York's home opener. Last week, the Packers defeated the Eagles 16-13 on a last minute field goal at Lambeau Field. Meanwhile, the Giants were sliced and diced by the Cowboys' Tony Romo en route to a 45-35 defeat. In that game, Giants QB Eli Manning bruised his shoulder. He is iffy for Sunday's game. If he can't go, the Giants will turn to Jared Lorenzen, the mammoth (285 lbs) backup quarterback. If he gets the nod, he may become the heaviest quarterback to ever start an NFL game. Elias Sports Bureau, I need you! I like the Packers in this game but I really don't have a good grip on this game. The two reasons I am taking the Packers are 1) the possibility that Jared Lorenzen starts for New York and 2) the Packers defense, which played exceptionally well last week against Philadelphia. I think Green Bay's ability to stop the Giants rushing attack putting the burden on the New York QBs to win the game. The Packers win a low-scoring affair.
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
The Jaguars are right on schedule. One must credit their consistency. They have another season where they'll hover around .500 all lined up. QB David Gerrard is not a significant upgrade over Byron Leftwich, the receivers still drop too many passes, and the team always finds a way to lose close games. This week however, the Jaguars host the Falcons who look to be in the running for the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft. Last week, they managed a field goal in a 24-3 loss in Minnesota. The offense looked terrible. If Joey Harrington doesn't play better than last week, somebody…anybody is going to get a look in his place under center for the Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals - Seahawks
I still have some hope left for my darling Cardinals. But last week's performance against the 49ers cost them some of my confidence. Matt Leinart played particularly poorly, going 14-28 through the air with two interceptions. This was the guy I was saying was preparing to make the jump into the next level a la Carson Palmer a few years ago. One game does not make a season but he must play better this week against a Seahawks defense that allowed just two field goals in a win over Tampa last Sunday. Look for the Cardinals to play well at home. Unfortunately, the Seahawks look more like the 2005 Seahawks when they won the NFC Championship than they resemble last year's inconsistent, injury-riddled squad. I like the Seahawks in a tight, back and forth game.
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
Dallas travels to Florida to meet the Dolphins in Miami's home opener. Miami is coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Redskins in overtime while the Cowboys are coming off a big win at home against the Giants. Many believe the Cowboys to have the upper hand in this matchup. But I think the Cowboys defense was exposed last week. Their secondary gave up a ton of big plays while the defense surrendered 35 points. Meanwhile, Miami's defense is perennially stout. Look for the Cowboys offense to come back to Earth a bit. I see a physical game that will be won by whoever is able to run the ball with more success. What this will do is open up the play-action passing game. With each team possessing a pedestrian secondary, QBs Trent Green and Tony Romo will take their shots down the field. I think the Dolphins pull the upset with a couple of big plays and a late field goal.
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions - Lions
Is this the year that the Lions finally emerge from nearly ten years of chaos? The Lions have been horrendous for several seasons now. They've haven't made the playoffs since 1999 and at one point, managed to lose a record-setting twenty-four straight games on the road. However, second-year Head Coach Rod Marinelli has instilled confidence throughout the organization through his no-nonsense demeanor and attention to detail. With Mike Martz running the offense, the 2007 Lions should put up some gaudy offensive numbers. For one game at least, the offense looked good as the team ran up almost 400 yards of total offense and 36 points in a win on the road in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Tavaris Jackson experiment in Minnesota passed the first test last week. The second year QB out of Alabama State managed the game well last week, throwing a touchdown pass as the Vikings beat the hapless Falcons 24-3. The Lions defense will be a much more difficult test. Look for Detroit to stack eight in the box to slow the Minnesota running game. With an eight man front, the Lions will have an array of options with which to blitz. If the young QB gets into trouble and turns the ball over a couple of times, it could get ugly. Even if he doesn't, I suspect the Lions to put enough points on the board against an underrated Vikings defense to get the win.
Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos - Broncos
At Mile High, the Broncos host rival Oakland in their home opener. The Broncos return home 1-0 after a heart-stopping last second victory in Buffalo last week. The Raiders played tough before fading late losing at home 36-21 to the Lions. Raiders QB Josh McCown is questionable this week following an injury sustained in the second half last week. If he can't go, Daunte Culpepper will get the call. Realistically though, the Raiders defense must play much better than last week to have a chance in this game. One of the best defensive teams in the conference last season, the Raiders gave up 392 yards to the Lions and twenty-six second half points. Against Denver, they will need to stop a well-balanced attack that features Travis Henry at RB along with Pro Bowl-caliber receiver Javon Walker. They rolled up well over 400 total yards in offense last week in Buffalo. Look for another solid performance from Denver's offense and more touchdowns in the red zone this week as Jay Cutler settles in under center.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears - Bears
There couldn't be a better elixir to heal the Bears' wounds after a tough loss in San Diego last Sunday. Rex Grossman should play much better than a week ago against a below average defense. Meanwhile, the Bears defense led by Brian Urlacher will feast on the miscues that are quickly becoming a staple of the Chiefs offense. Each year, the Bears seem to get one or two patsies at home to feast on. Last year, it was Buffalo and San Francisco. This year, it's Kansas City. This looks to be ugly. Cedric Benson should also get on track this week. The Bears couldn't have asked for a better opponent to play this week. Except perhaps the Browns.
New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens - Ravens
Like the Bears, the Ravens lost a tough road game in the NFL's first week. This week, they take on the Jets at home. The Ravens match up very well with the Jets who have an immobile QB (Chad Pennington) who might not be able to go, in which case Kellen Clemens would get the nod in his first NFL start. Possessing one of the best defenses in the league, look for Rex Ryan's unit to blitz early and often against the vulnerable Jets. The Ravens offense was supposed to be vastly improved from a year ago. However, QB Steve McNair looked no more comfortable in the offense than he did a year ago as the Ravens committed six turnovers. The Jets will have a tough time running the ball against Baltimore and with the Ravens aggressive defense, look for a number of turnovers from the Jets no matter who is playing quarterback.
San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots - Patriots
In a rematch from last year's playoffs, the Chargers battle New England in Foxboro. The Patriots are coming off an impressive victory against the Jets. The victory was overshadowed when it was discovered that a Patriot employee was illegally videotaping the signals of the Jets defensive coordinator. On Thursday, Patriot Head Coach Bill Bellichick was fined $500,000 and the organization docked a draft pick. I suspect the veteran squad will be unfazed by all the controversy. The Chargers emerged victorious last week against Chicago in a hard fought physical game. M.V.P. Ladainian Tomlinson once again did it all for the Chargers tossing and running for a score in the fourth quarter. Phil Rivers is the guy I think will be the key to the entire Charger season. He must perform better than he did in Week 1 for the Chargers to make it through the AFC playoffs. Yes, I already have a spot in the playoffs for the Chargers. Their victory Sunday over Chicago just goes to show you how good Tomlinson is. This week, I like the Patriots for a couple of reasons. They are at home where they always play well. Two, I think they have more offensive weapons and are better offensively than when these teams met last January. And three, I don't think Phil Rivers can beat the Patriots. And by stacking the line against Tomlinson, that is what the Patriots are going to make him do. Pats win in an entertaining Sunday night game.
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles
The Eagles return home after a tough opening week loss to the Packers. In his first game back from knee surgery, Donovan McNabb was noticeably rusty. However, the team was still in excellent position to win the game or at the least go to overtime till a muffed punt late sealed their fate. This week, they host archrival Washington at raucous Lincoln Financial Field. Washington comes in with young Jason Campbell making the start at QB. He managed last week's game against Miami nicely but will need to do more if the Redskins are to have any chance of knocking off the Eagles. I see a big day for Eagles RB Brian Westbrook and McNabb returns to form as the Eagles win going away.
Labels: nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 2, Week 2 matchups
Friday, September 07, 2007
The Rest of Week 1
The Eagles travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, making it the fifth straight times these two teams have met in the regular season. Andy Reid, who got his start in coaching as a mentor to Brett Favre under Mike Holmgren in the mid-90s, leads the Eagles back to take on his former protégé. The Eagles come in as slight favorites over Favre’s pack while Brett returns for one more season (once again) in hopes of leading his team back to the playoffs.
Donovan McNabb starts at quarterback for the Eagles and eyes will be on him as he makes his first start in more than nine months since a devastating knee injury. Dynamic RB Brian Westbrook also will be a focal point of a Packers defense which must contain the well-balanced attack of the Eagles. The young defense struggled at times last season but defensive stalwarts Aaron Kampman and A.J. Hawk anchor a unit that should be much improved. The key to the game rests in their hands as Westbrook and McNabb are traditionally September stars.
This is a big test for the Packers young defense. I don’t believe they’ll be able to contain Westbrook and McNabb. I do see the Packers keeping it close as they traditionally play well at Lambeau Field, but the Eagles prevail in this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns - Browns
Upset special for Week 1. Sure, this doesn't look like much of a game. However, history is on the Browns side. No Steeler coach has ever defeated Cleveland in his first game between the two rivals. I could attempt to feed you some lines about the Browns ability to play tough at home or a revamped defense and an improved offensive line, which is all true but I won't. I taking the Browns because I have a gut feeling that they are going to come out and take control of this game early. If the Browns can build a lead and force the Steelers to abandon the running game, opportunities for turnovers will be there as Roethlisberger led the league in interceptions a year ago. The key to the game will be whether or not the Browns can stop Willie Parker and if the offense under Charlie Frye can move the ball against a traditionally strong Steeler defense.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings - Vikings
Here is the first Friends & Family game of the year...meaning the only people watching this game outside Atlanta and Minnesota will be the friends and family of the players and coaches. An old woman will utter, "That's my baby Tarvarius!" as the Viking QB will complete his first pass of the game sometime midway through the third quarter. I can't think of a better antithesis to Drew Brees/Peyton Manning than Tavarius Jackson/Joey Harrington. Anyway, to the game. Both defenses will stack the line and make the other quarterback beat them. Big plays will determine this game's outcome. Whichever defense can force a key turnover or a big kick return may be enough to swing this game in one direction or another. Jerious Norwood, the explosive Falcons RB, and highly-touted rookie Viking RB Adrian Peterson are both talented game-breakers. If one can bust through into the secondary, each is capable of taking it to the house. I like the Vikings defense, playing in front of a boisterous crowd in the Metrodome, to force some turnovers, leading to an ugly win.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets - Patriots
An intriguing early season matchup, these two rivals figure to be competing all season long for AFC East supremacy. With the Jets acquiring Thomas Jones, you can now argue that they are closer to the Jets at the skill positions. EXCEPT for one major difference: one team has Tom Brady and the other doesn't. Chad Pennington is in a precarious situation with Kellen Clemens, the backup quarterback who performed splendidly in the preseason, breathing down his neck. Don't be surprised if Pennington struggles early, calls for Clemens will quickly grow in number at the Meadowlands. The key factor in this game will be whether or not the Jets defense will be able to stymie the Patriots well-balanced offense. With Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and Laurence Maroney, Patriot QB Tom Brady truly has a bevy of offensive weapons from which to choose. However, former New England defensive coordinator Eric Mangini now coaches for the Jets and his team played the Patriots extremely close three times last season. Expect the Jets to keep it close. However, I just can't see the Jets staying with the Patriots fire-power. New England wins a hard-fought affair.
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Redskins - Redskins
Both teams trot out different starters than at this time last season. Trent Green comes over to Miami from Kansas City, replacing Joey Harrington et al. However, the preseason has been a horror show for Green as he struggles to adapt to the offensive scheme of Cam Cameron. The offense has looked out of sync. Green and his receivers have been struggling to connect and former second overall pick Ronnie Brown showed up to camp out of shape. This team's performance on the road in Washington should provide a good litmus test to that old adage that preseason trends mean nothing. Expect the Dolphins to struggle on offense. The key will be establishing Ronnie Brown to ease some of the pressure of Green.
For the Redskins, Jason Campbell starts at QB for the Redskins, after having replaced Mark Brunell midway through last season. The Redskins will also try to run the ball to set up the pass in an effort to protect Campbell's psyche early in the season. Both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts will carry the ball for the 'Skins as they hope to start fast in what should be a very competitive NFC East division. With similar strategies, the game should be a close one. But I give the edge to the Redskins at home by a field goal.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills - Bills
A bold statement you say? Perhaps, but Buffalo looks to be much improved this year and I suspect Jay Cutler will have his fair share of struggles in raucous Ralph Wilson Stadium. I think the key will be field position and the ability of the Bills to stop the run. The always formidable Bronco rushing attack will be spearheaded this year by Travis Henry, the former Bill. Many observers are predicting a 1,500 yard season. If the Bills defense is able to slow down Henry and force Denver into third and long, the Broncos offense will struggle. Making only his sixth NFL start, I don't believe Jay Cutler will be able to win the game on his arm alone. On the other side of the ball, Denver's defense has struggled to adapt to the new defensive scheme implemented by Jim Bates. Again, how much stock can you put in preseason? But in this case, I think it will play a part. The Bills must run the ball with rookie rusher Marshawn Lynch in order to set up the play-action passing game. An exciting matchup to watch in this game will be Bills star receiver, Lee Evans, lining up against Champ Bailey, the premier cornerback in the league. Look for Losman to challenge the Broncos secondary down the field. Bailey will have his share of picks but he will give up a big one once in awhile. To sum it up, I like the Bills in a hard-fought and close game.
Carolina Panthers vs St. Louis Rams - Rams
The Panthers travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams led by Pro Bowl running back Steven Jackson. The Panthers defense will face a major challenge against the explosive Rams offense who always play well at home on the carpet of Edward Jones Dome. In regards to stopping Steven Jackson, the onus falls upon the Panthers front seven. In order for them to have a chance in this game, they have got to contain the Rams All-Pro running back. In passing situations, their front four led by Julius Peppers must get to the quarterback as the Panthers will employ a nickel defense to slow down the talented trio of receivers for the Rams: Drew Bennett, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt. On offense, the Panthers will try to control the ball and the clock by running the football with D'Angelo Williams and DeShaun Foster. To have any chance to stay with the Rams, they will have to convert their red zone opportunities. The Panthers scored just fifteen touchdowns in their thirty-two trips into the red zone last season. Jake Delhomme must cut down on his turnovers this season or he'll find himself out of the job. It's a make or break season in Carolina and Delhomme and Head Coach John Fox have jobs on the line. A win in St. Louis would be a fantastic start. But I don't see it.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
A matchup of AFC South foes collide on Sunday in Jacksonville. Both teams finished 8-8 last season but their roads to those records were very different. The Titans started 2-7 before inserting rookie QB Vince Young led the team on a five game winning streak and nearly took them to the playoffs. The Jaguars, a playoff team in 2005, looked to take the next step in 2006 but once again, instability at the quarterback position doomed them. 2006 starter and former first round pick Byron Leftwich was cut just after the final preseason game and David Gerrard, his long-time backup, was named the starter. Gerrard has never shown the consistency Head Coach Jack Del Rio has desired in numerous stints filling in for Leftwich. If Gerrard and the Jaguars don't perform well this season, a new quarterback and perhaps a new head coach could be in the cards in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will look to take control of the line of scrimmage by pounding running backs' Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Titans will look to Young and an opportunistic defense as their primary formula for success. We'll see how teams adjust to seeing Young for a second time around. Look for the Jaguars to try to keep him in the pocket and make him throw the ball downfield to an unproven receiving corps. I like the Jaguars in a physical game.
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders - Lions
In Oakland, a battle of teams traditionally battling for top pick honors face off. For all the talk about how Al Davis was going to let Lane Kiffin run the show in Oakland, the decision to cut a third-round pick and the question surrounding who will start the season at quarterback seems to evidence the contrary. This team continues to be run into the ground. The number one pick in the draft, JaMarcus Russell remains unsigned and will as a result be a non-factor in 2007. Anyway, the decision to start Josh McCown over Daunte Culpepper boggles my mind. I thought the Raiders were quietly putting something together but all seems lost in Oakland. I like the Lions as the less terrible team in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans - Texans
This is an intriguing game between two teams who really aren't sure what they have yet. After a long drawn out quarterback competition, Damon Huard triumphed over Brodie Croyle in Kansas City thanks in large part to Croyle's complete ineptitude. I like the Texans because Herm Edwards has taken a team in good shape and turned it into a disaster.
MORE TO COME...
Labels: NFL, NFL opener, NFL predictions, NFL Week 1, Week 1 matchups
