Friday, September 14, 2007
Chargers Head to Foxboro and More; Week 2 Picks
Record after Week 1
Week: 10-6
Season: 10-6
5 Things I learned from Week 1:
1. No matter how much I love the Browns, I can't pick them in any game against a team that was better than 5-11 a year ago.
2. Randy Moss looked unstoppable on the field for the first time since he was in Minnesota. He may shatter most of New England's single season receiving records. He was scary good against the Jets. Kind of like this Randy Moss mask.
3. The Texans look to be a dark-horse candidate for a AFC Wild Card spot. Their defense is young, opportunistic, and talented.
4. Ben Roethlisberger will not throw for four touchdowns in a game again this season. Mark it down. It's not happening. He completed twelves passes on Sunday and had a completion percentage just a notch above fifty percent. Sorry Peter King, he is not a Pro Bowl Quarterback.
5. Of all the quarterbacks looking to take their game to the next level, (J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, to name a few) Jay Cutler may be the one most likely to do so. He has a ton of talent surrounding him and a solid running game. He still needs to learn how to put the ball in the endzone. He won't win many games 15-14. But a 300 yard passing effort on the road and more importantly, a victory, is a good way to start for the second year player out of Vanderbilt.
Now on to this week's games...
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers - Panthers
This game is particularly difficult for me to pick because I have adopted the Texans as my out-of-nowhere playoff contender. Their offense isn't where they want it to be whose is after one week. Besides with a revamped offensive line that only allowed two sack on Sunday and a new RB and QB in Ahman Green and Matt Schaub, it will be a few weeks before the team's offense really begins to jell. You have to like their defense. They were quick to the ball on Sunday and opportunistic, forcing four turnovers and collecting three sacks. Granted it was the Chiefs but look for more of the same throughout the year. Enough fawning over the Texans, I like the Panthers in a physical game. Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage will win this game. I like the talented Panthers front four to stymie the Texans run game. I think the Panthers tandem of D'Angelo Williams and DeShaun Foster will wear the Houston defense. I see a late field goal by John Kasey being the difference in this one.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns - Bengals
The only reason Browns fans have to go games for the rest of the season is the possibility of seeing rookie QB Brady Quinn. Already hailed as the soon-to-be savior of the franchise, look for Browns fans to begin the chant early in the first half. In lieu of last week's debacle against bitter rival Pittsburgh, the Browns made a flurry of decisions. First, they traded Charlie Frye; second, they installed Derek Anderson the starting QB, and third, resigned Quinn's mentor Ken Dorsey after he was cut at the end of the preseason. This might seem like a team in chaos considering Frye was named the starter after a long training camp battle and then pulled after a quarter and unceremoniously traded two days later. But Head Coach Romeo Crennel assures fans that there is a plan. For the sake of Browns fans, let's hope it includes starting Brady Quinn sooner rather than later. Bengals by a couple touchdowns as the Browns will be hard-pressed to match last week's show of incompetence.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans - Colts
Until somebody proves otherwise, the Colts are the class of the AFC South. Since the NFL divided each conference into four divisions, the Colts have gone 23-7 against AFC South opponents. Not bad. Until somebody knocks them off, I will steadfastly remain in the Colts corner. A talented team that is up and coming, the Titans hope to be the team that challenges the Colts for divisional supremacy. The last time these two teams met, the Titans stunned the Colts, winning on a dramatic 60-yard field goal from Ron Bironas as time expired. The Titans will employ a similar strategy to the one they had last year. Control the clock by running the ball, wear down the Colts defense, and most importantly, keep Peyton Manning off the field. I think they will execute their plan successfully but in the end, it's too hard to go against Peyton Manning. Especially when you have Vince Young across the ball who in his second season, lacks the consistency and sound decision-making that is needed to beat a superior team like the Colts.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs - Saints
Wouldn't be interesting if the Bucs upset the Saints this week? All of a sudden, the most trendy pick for NFC Super Bowl is in an 0-2 hole and people are suddenly questioning the team's offensive strategy. I am not saying it's going to happen but it would make for interesting reading. I can certainly imagine Peter King and Don Banks of SI piecing together a thousand word analysis on the team's struggles. Back to the game, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia simply cannot function outside a pure West Coast offense. If he isn't in the Eagles offense under Andy Reid or the 49ers scheme under Steve Mariucci, the guy is a QB with average arm strength who makes poor decisions with the football. I don't believe him to be a good fit in Tampa. He did little to prove me wrong last week as the Bucs offense produced just six points in a loss to Seattle. The Saints should come out firing after a bad loss at Indianapolis a week ago. Look for them to establish the running game early on in an effort to control the line of scrimmage. I also suspect they will challenge the Bucs secondary with a vertical passing attack. I found that to be one of the most surprising things to come out of last week's loss against the Colts. I can't remember a single throw by Drew Brees that was over fifteen yards. Look for that to change this week against the Bucs.
San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams - Rams
The Rams look to rebound after a disappointing loss at home last week against the Panthers. Their defense really struggled last week against Carolina, allowing 186 yards on the ground and three touchdown passes from Panther QB Jake Delhomme. Throughout the preseason, the Rams claimed that first round pick DE Adam Carriker would shore up the porous run defense the Rams had last season. If one game is any indication, Carriker and the Rams are going to see teams pounding the ball between the tackles in an effort to control the game and keep the Rams talented offense off the field. It sure worked for Carolina as they controlled the ball for almost sixty percent of the game. This week, the Rams host the 49ers in what becomes an important game for the Rams who can ill-afford two straight losses at home to start the season. Last season, Frank Gore averaged 178 yard per game in his two matchups against St. Louis. Expect the 49ers to give him the ball early and often. If you have Gore this week in fantasy, you can anticipate a 100 yard plus day with a couple of touchdowns. However, I am taking the Rams in this game. They really need this game and will put eight man in the box in an effort to stop Gore and force 49er QB Alex Smith to win the game with his arm.
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers
What a tough opening week it was for the Bills. They played a hard-fought game at home before losing a heart-breaker 15-14 against the Broncos as Jason Elam nailed a 42-yard field goal as time expired. Trumping the loss was a devastating injury to backup TE Kevin Everett who suffered a spinal cord injury midway through the second half. He lay motionless on the field for several minutes before being carted off the field. This week, the Bills travel to Heinz Field to battle the Steelers. Aaron Schobel and the Bills front seven will face a stiff challenge in trying to stop Willie Parker and the Steelers rushing attack. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills must not turn the ball over to have a chance in this game. J.P. Losman struggled mightily last week at home against Denver. He must connect with Lee Evans on a couple of deep balls to pull the upset. Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh is too tough at home for the Bills. I do think it will be a close game. I think the Bills will wake up Monday morning thinking that their 0-2 record could easily be 2-0 if not for a couple of plays.
Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants - Packers
The Packers travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants in New York's home opener. Last week, the Packers defeated the Eagles 16-13 on a last minute field goal at Lambeau Field. Meanwhile, the Giants were sliced and diced by the Cowboys' Tony Romo en route to a 45-35 defeat. In that game, Giants QB Eli Manning bruised his shoulder. He is iffy for Sunday's game. If he can't go, the Giants will turn to Jared Lorenzen, the mammoth (285 lbs) backup quarterback. If he gets the nod, he may become the heaviest quarterback to ever start an NFL game. Elias Sports Bureau, I need you! I like the Packers in this game but I really don't have a good grip on this game. The two reasons I am taking the Packers are 1) the possibility that Jared Lorenzen starts for New York and 2) the Packers defense, which played exceptionally well last week against Philadelphia. I think Green Bay's ability to stop the Giants rushing attack putting the burden on the New York QBs to win the game. The Packers win a low-scoring affair.
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
The Jaguars are right on schedule. One must credit their consistency. They have another season where they'll hover around .500 all lined up. QB David Gerrard is not a significant upgrade over Byron Leftwich, the receivers still drop too many passes, and the team always finds a way to lose close games. This week however, the Jaguars host the Falcons who look to be in the running for the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft. Last week, they managed a field goal in a 24-3 loss in Minnesota. The offense looked terrible. If Joey Harrington doesn't play better than last week, somebody…anybody is going to get a look in his place under center for the Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals - Seahawks
I still have some hope left for my darling Cardinals. But last week's performance against the 49ers cost them some of my confidence. Matt Leinart played particularly poorly, going 14-28 through the air with two interceptions. This was the guy I was saying was preparing to make the jump into the next level a la Carson Palmer a few years ago. One game does not make a season but he must play better this week against a Seahawks defense that allowed just two field goals in a win over Tampa last Sunday. Look for the Cardinals to play well at home. Unfortunately, the Seahawks look more like the 2005 Seahawks when they won the NFC Championship than they resemble last year's inconsistent, injury-riddled squad. I like the Seahawks in a tight, back and forth game.
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
Dallas travels to Florida to meet the Dolphins in Miami's home opener. Miami is coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Redskins in overtime while the Cowboys are coming off a big win at home against the Giants. Many believe the Cowboys to have the upper hand in this matchup. But I think the Cowboys defense was exposed last week. Their secondary gave up a ton of big plays while the defense surrendered 35 points. Meanwhile, Miami's defense is perennially stout. Look for the Cowboys offense to come back to Earth a bit. I see a physical game that will be won by whoever is able to run the ball with more success. What this will do is open up the play-action passing game. With each team possessing a pedestrian secondary, QBs Trent Green and Tony Romo will take their shots down the field. I think the Dolphins pull the upset with a couple of big plays and a late field goal.
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions - Lions
Is this the year that the Lions finally emerge from nearly ten years of chaos? The Lions have been horrendous for several seasons now. They've haven't made the playoffs since 1999 and at one point, managed to lose a record-setting twenty-four straight games on the road. However, second-year Head Coach Rod Marinelli has instilled confidence throughout the organization through his no-nonsense demeanor and attention to detail. With Mike Martz running the offense, the 2007 Lions should put up some gaudy offensive numbers. For one game at least, the offense looked good as the team ran up almost 400 yards of total offense and 36 points in a win on the road in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Tavaris Jackson experiment in Minnesota passed the first test last week. The second year QB out of Alabama State managed the game well last week, throwing a touchdown pass as the Vikings beat the hapless Falcons 24-3. The Lions defense will be a much more difficult test. Look for Detroit to stack eight in the box to slow the Minnesota running game. With an eight man front, the Lions will have an array of options with which to blitz. If the young QB gets into trouble and turns the ball over a couple of times, it could get ugly. Even if he doesn't, I suspect the Lions to put enough points on the board against an underrated Vikings defense to get the win.
Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos - Broncos
At Mile High, the Broncos host rival Oakland in their home opener. The Broncos return home 1-0 after a heart-stopping last second victory in Buffalo last week. The Raiders played tough before fading late losing at home 36-21 to the Lions. Raiders QB Josh McCown is questionable this week following an injury sustained in the second half last week. If he can't go, Daunte Culpepper will get the call. Realistically though, the Raiders defense must play much better than last week to have a chance in this game. One of the best defensive teams in the conference last season, the Raiders gave up 392 yards to the Lions and twenty-six second half points. Against Denver, they will need to stop a well-balanced attack that features Travis Henry at RB along with Pro Bowl-caliber receiver Javon Walker. They rolled up well over 400 total yards in offense last week in Buffalo. Look for another solid performance from Denver's offense and more touchdowns in the red zone this week as Jay Cutler settles in under center.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears - Bears
There couldn't be a better elixir to heal the Bears' wounds after a tough loss in San Diego last Sunday. Rex Grossman should play much better than a week ago against a below average defense. Meanwhile, the Bears defense led by Brian Urlacher will feast on the miscues that are quickly becoming a staple of the Chiefs offense. Each year, the Bears seem to get one or two patsies at home to feast on. Last year, it was Buffalo and San Francisco. This year, it's Kansas City. This looks to be ugly. Cedric Benson should also get on track this week. The Bears couldn't have asked for a better opponent to play this week. Except perhaps the Browns.
New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens - Ravens
Like the Bears, the Ravens lost a tough road game in the NFL's first week. This week, they take on the Jets at home. The Ravens match up very well with the Jets who have an immobile QB (Chad Pennington) who might not be able to go, in which case Kellen Clemens would get the nod in his first NFL start. Possessing one of the best defenses in the league, look for Rex Ryan's unit to blitz early and often against the vulnerable Jets. The Ravens offense was supposed to be vastly improved from a year ago. However, QB Steve McNair looked no more comfortable in the offense than he did a year ago as the Ravens committed six turnovers. The Jets will have a tough time running the ball against Baltimore and with the Ravens aggressive defense, look for a number of turnovers from the Jets no matter who is playing quarterback.
San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots - Patriots
In a rematch from last year's playoffs, the Chargers battle New England in Foxboro. The Patriots are coming off an impressive victory against the Jets. The victory was overshadowed when it was discovered that a Patriot employee was illegally videotaping the signals of the Jets defensive coordinator. On Thursday, Patriot Head Coach Bill Bellichick was fined $500,000 and the organization docked a draft pick. I suspect the veteran squad will be unfazed by all the controversy. The Chargers emerged victorious last week against Chicago in a hard fought physical game. M.V.P. Ladainian Tomlinson once again did it all for the Chargers tossing and running for a score in the fourth quarter. Phil Rivers is the guy I think will be the key to the entire Charger season. He must perform better than he did in Week 1 for the Chargers to make it through the AFC playoffs. Yes, I already have a spot in the playoffs for the Chargers. Their victory Sunday over Chicago just goes to show you how good Tomlinson is. This week, I like the Patriots for a couple of reasons. They are at home where they always play well. Two, I think they have more offensive weapons and are better offensively than when these teams met last January. And three, I don't think Phil Rivers can beat the Patriots. And by stacking the line against Tomlinson, that is what the Patriots are going to make him do. Pats win in an entertaining Sunday night game.
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles
The Eagles return home after a tough opening week loss to the Packers. In his first game back from knee surgery, Donovan McNabb was noticeably rusty. However, the team was still in excellent position to win the game or at the least go to overtime till a muffed punt late sealed their fate. This week, they host archrival Washington at raucous Lincoln Financial Field. Washington comes in with young Jason Campbell making the start at QB. He managed last week's game against Miami nicely but will need to do more if the Redskins are to have any chance of knocking off the Eagles. I see a big day for Eagles RB Brian Westbrook and McNabb returns to form as the Eagles win going away.
Labels: nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 2, Week 2 matchups
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
A Tranquil Cleveland Playoff Run?
For the last few weeks, a marvelous feeling of tranquility has overtaken me. No, I still don't have a job. No, I haven't found my "center." And no, I haven't paid my ever-growing credit card bill. But what I have discovered is an Indians team that is cruising towards a Central Division title and a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2001. I feel that I am getting a rare glimpse of what it's like to be a Red Sox or Yankees' fan. It is the expectation that your team will win, that your team is going to perform when it matters most, and that a fear of the team self-destructing isn't necessary. In the 2007 regular season at least. It isn't a completely foreign feeling as I recall something similar back in the mid 1990s. However, this is unique.
I still remember
Since that October day, GM Mark Shapiro dismantled the team and rebuilt it around a core of young players. I witnessed their potential in 2004 when they clawed to within two games of Central-leading
However, watching last Thursday's afternoon game in
The last two nights in
That's not to say that this team doesn't have flaws. Closer Joe Borowski is a heart-attack, waiting to happen, as he continually walks a tightrope in the 9th inning of games as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA. Their platoon at each of the corner outfield positions also leaves something to be desired. While, I can still tell you the remaining schedule for both
Labels: AL Central, AL playoffs, American League, American League Central, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ben Francisco, Cleveland, Cleveland sports, Hunt for October, Indians, October baseball, Tribe
