Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

For the first time since I was a senior in high school, the Indians will play October baseball. Often questioned whether I was a bigger Browns or Indian fan, I always replied that it depended on the year. During the mid-1990s when the Indians were so good, the Browns weren’t around. And the brown and orange have been so bad since their return that never have I encountered the predicament that I now face. With the Indians opening tonight against the Yankees and further energized by a couple of coffees, it’s a struggle to focus. Thirty minutes later….alright, so I just watched the Braylon Edwards 78-yard touchdown reception against the Ravens about a half dozens times, I am focused and ready to forge ahead with my picks for Week 5.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots – Patriots

I was talking to a friend of mine recently who is a huge Red Sox and Patriots fan. He said: “Boy, they made it look so easy. It didn’t even seem like that big of a deal…it was kind of anti-climactic.” He is talking about:

1. the Patriots domination over the Chargers in Week 2
2. the Patriots domination over the Bengals in Week 4
3. Game 1 of the Division Series between the Red Sox and Angels.
4. All of the Above.

Now imagine his surprise, when Derek Anderson (the D.A. who is prosecuting defenses across the land) shocks his Patriots in Foxboro. Only in my dreams I’m afraid.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans – Titans

I know they haven’t played since Week 3 and so I haven’t had a chance to comment about it, but the Titans really took it to the Saints in the Superdome a few weeks back. The Falcons meanwhile surprised the Texans for their first win of the season. The offense looks much better in the last two weeks. However, I really like how the Titans are playing and they’ll be prepared with the extra week to stop Joey Harrington and the Falcons.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams – Cardinals

Quick thoughts about everybody who is belittling Matt Leinart, especially Peter King…

1. It’s rare that a player like Leinart will speak his mind to the media but he certainly won’t do that any more thanks to Michael Silver.
2. You want your QB to be confident and want the ball in his hands when the game is on the line.
3. I find it very bizarre that somebody as media-savvy as the young QB would make comments like that in a dinner with a columnist. He must have known those would come out. Big mistake.
4. I like Leinart and think he’s going to be a great player. Sharing his inner thoughts about the situation was a mistake. However, I found the article by Silver interesting and enlightening thanks in part to the former Heisman winner’s honesty.

Gus Frerotte is starting for the Rams! I had to double-check the spelling of his name. Your team was expected to compete for a division championship Coach Linehan and at 0-4, you’re nearly dead. Is Gus Frerotte a better option than Marc Bulger at 75%? The way this season is going; Frerotte pulls off a Warner-esque job replacing Bulger.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs – Jaguars

Alright Jacksonville, you don’t like me and I don’t like you. I know you like to lose games that you’re supposed to win and lose games I have you winning but can’t we get along just this once? I like the Jaguars mostly because I was impressed by their performance two weeks ago in Denver. And quite frankly, I still don’t really understand how the Chiefs beat the Chargers last week. So I am just going to put that aside and remember what the Chiefs looked like the first three weeks of the season.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Saints

Wow, was David Carr, and the entire Panther team for that matter, terrible last week or what? I was fooled into thinking this team could still win with or without Delhomme. Word on the street has Carolina’s starter missing this game. The possibility of Delhomme missing this game gives me enough confidence to take the winless Saints. Besides, I believe Sean Payton is going to roll out a new offense this week, now that Deuce McAllister is out for the year. Payton’s also had two weeks to come up with something better than the stuff that we saw in the first three weeks of the season, which wasn’t good.

New York Jets at New York Giants – Giants

I like the Giants for one reason: home-field advantage. No but seriously, I like the Giants because I think they’re more likely to win. Okay, that wasn’t serious either. To be honest, it’s a tossup game, of which few have gone in my favor. I’ll take the Giants based on their defense…and the Jets defense…which is poor.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers

In the last several years, these are the kind of games people build up that end up a disappointment. Sure, the Seahawks look good but let’s be honest. The AFC’s top teams are head and shoulders above the NFC with the possible exception of the Cowboys. The Seahawks will have difficulty running the ball this week against the Steelers. Balance is the key to the NFC’s third best offense. The Steelers do an excellent job, stopping the run led by Nose Tackle Casey Hampton who is a rather large man. This game will be like Super Bowl XL: a boring, lackluster Steeler victory.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins – Redskins

The Lions happen to be 3-1 but they haven’t looked particularly inspiring with the exception of the fourth quarter in the Oakland, Minnesota, and Chicago games. With a bye week, I expect the Redskins to have a good game plan to defend Mike Martz’s high powered offense. The Redskins secondary is above average and the Lions haven’t shown they can consistently pick up yardage on the ground. I suspect the Redskins will pound the ball on offense with Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis and control the clock. Jason Campbell and the Redskins win a close one late.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans – Texans

Who would have ever thought the Dolphins defense could be so bad? It’s disappointing to watch. I thought they would bounce back at home last week against the Raiders but their defense was a joke. The front seven is getting blown off the ball and it certainly doesn’t help when Zach Thomas is hurt. The Dolphins are in trouble and it might soon be time to make a change at QB for no other reason than an audition for 2008. Coming off a disappointing loss against Atlanta, Houston needs this game.

Tampa Bay Bucs at Indianapolis Colts – Colts

Year in and year out, the Colts find a way to win. It’s pretty impressive. Although when you have one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, it sure makes things easier. Colts are banged up on both sides of the ball with key injuries to Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai. If Sanders doesn’t play, the Colts run defense becomes very porous. However, Manning will find a way to win this game, outscoring Jeff Garcia and the Bucs offense.

Let’s go back to greatest quarterbacks ever debate. How spoiled are NFL fans right now? We are watching three of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game currently. Granted, Brett Favre is in the final stages of his Hall of Fame career. But when you look at Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, you’re looking at two QBs who are as good as they come. I think Brady will be compared to Joe Montana when he’s done. His focus and determination are unparalleled. With Manning, I think what’s most amazing about him is how much he studies and understands the game. His ability to identify defensive schemes at the line of scrimmage is the most amazing (and annoying) characteristic of his game.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Broncos

I don’t know what to think about either of these teams. The Broncos lost a hard-fought game last week after a lackluster effort against the Jaguars at home the week before. Meanwhile, the Chargers have looked just terrible in three straight losses. Everybody keeps talking about how talented the Chargers are but things just aren’t clicking right now. I don’t particularly like the Broncos as nothing hurts a team’s chances of winning more than settling for field goals in the red zone and that has defined this team’s season thus far. But they’re at home this week in a must win against a division rival. I expect them to win a hard-fought game on a late field-goal by Jason Elam. Sound familiar?

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – Ravens

I have been screaming at the top of my lungs that this Ravens team is just not that good. Their defense is stout as always but so susceptible to the big play. Last week, they were really never in the game against Cleveland. However, they have three winnable games lined up here through the end of October starting this week at San Francisco, then home against St. Louis, and then on the road in Buffalo. They’ll probably be 5-2, heading into their bye week at the end of October and the press will fawn all over their defense. Their offense just isn’t capable of putting up enough points. The team’s success is just too dependent on big plays from their defense and special teams.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Packers

Well, I think the Bears may have hit rock bottom last week. The Bears were in control of a rather ugly game at Ford Field last week 13-3 headed into the fourth quarter. 34 Lions points later, the Bears defense had shown they were about as dependable as Rex Grossman. The question has become, “What now?” And I don’t there is an easy answer. Brian Griese clearly isn’t the answer at QB but you can’t really go back to Grossman now. It’s a perfect mess in Chicago right now. At least the Cubs are still playing…for now. They face arch-rival Green Bay who has had everything go right thus far in the young season. If Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, expect the Packers to win by a comfortable margin. Although I can’t help but feel like I am waiting for the other shoe to drop for a team that has no running game and whose offense is entirely dependent upon a soon-to-be 38 year old QB.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – Cowboys

This game could be similar to those Super Bowls back in the early 90s…except the Bills were actually good back then. To the Bills defense, they played very well against a very under-whelming Jets squad. This week, they play the best the NFC has to offer. I don’t think the Bills can hang with Tony Romo and the Cowboys, especially with the rookie QB Trent Edwards at the helm.

This week, we’re adding a new feature this week. It’s called the Scott Player Fact of the Week. This week’s fact:

Did you know that Scott Player made the Pro Bowl in 2000? Shocking…

Labels: Football, National Football League, NFL, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL week 5

# posted by Nate @ 5:43 PM 0 comments

Labels: Bill Belichick, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL Week 3, Scott Player

# posted by Nate @ 12:28 PM 0 comments

RECORD

Last Week: 9 - 7
Season: 19 – 13

What a week it was in the NFL this past Sunday with numerous upsets, thrilling finishes, and out-of-nowhere performances. On to Week 3 now and I have to say, prognosticators like myself are growing concerned about teams off to slow starts while eying 2-0 teams, looking to separate the pretenders from the contenders. A trio of teams in the NFC who were popular picks to win the conference currently sport records of 0-2. One of those teams is the Saints whose defense has allowed 65 points in two games. There offense is another issue which I'll address later. The other two are the Rams and Eagles. The Eagles have traditionally started strong, owning a 7-2 record the past three seasons in the month of September. QB Donovan McNabb has appeared sluggish and a bit rusty following a grotesque knee injury last season. Usually a team tough to beat at home, St. Louis has lost two games in a row at the Edward Jones Dome in which they were the favorites. The rush defense, a question mark coming into the season, has been exploited in both losses. Each of these teams need a win in Week 3 as 0-3 is a hole from which, few teams recover.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Patriots

Bills QB J.P. Losman is in desperate need of a good game, star receiver Lee Evans has just 22 yards receiving, and the Bills offense has looked wretched in the first two weeks. Unfortunately for Buffalo, they travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. New England's defense stymied the Chargers last week, forcing three turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The news doesn't get any better on the other side of the ball either. The Bills defense will try to slow down the best offense in football thus far led by Tom Brady who is completely nearly 80% of his passes. New England has won each of their first two games by a score of 38-14. That could be a conservative prediction for this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers

The 49ers travel to Heinz Field to take on the 2-0 Steelers who thrashed Buffalo last week 26-3. The Steelers face there first real test of the young season against San Francisco who will rely heavily upon RB Frank Gore who turned in a gutsy effort against the Rams last week. Just days after his mother's funeral and suffering from a leg strain, the 3rd year man out Miami scored twice including an electrifying 43-yard scamper on fourth-and-1. The 49ers are 2-0 in spite of QB Alex Smith who has struggled thus far. The Steelers will challenge the young QB with an array of blitzes. Smith must not turn the ball over to have any chance in pulling off the upset. The Steelers prove too tough at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens – Cardinals

The formula for success against the Ravens is simple. Stop the run, force whichever mediocre QB the Ravens have under center to throw, and don't turn the ball. If the Cardinals can do this, I believe they can grind out a win.

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers – Chargers

The Packers defense has proven to be a force in the first two weeks of the season. This week, they face their biggest test when Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers come to town. Chargers win a tough game on the road late.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – Colts

The Texans have never beaten the Colts. This game, they'll play Peyton Manning's squad tough but the absence of Matt Schaub's favorite target, Andre Johnson will certainly hurt their chances.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs – Chiefs

Tarvaris Jackson is a turnover machine. Last week, Minnesota lost a heart-breaker in Detroit thanks in large part to Jackson's four interceptions. The Chiefs have looked horrendous as well but at home, they should be able to grind out a win against the turnover-prone Vikings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks – Seahawks

One would think 72 points in a team's first two games would be good enough for a 2-0 record. Not so for the Bengals. Cincinnati's offense led by QB Carson Palmer looks as potent as ever but unfortunately, the defense is once again as bad as the offense is good. The Seahawks defense should slow down the Bengals offense just enough to escape with a victory.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders – Browns

What do QB Derek Anderson and the Browns have for an encore following their 51-point outburst against Cincinnati? We'll find out Sunday in Oakland. Derek Anderson went from a backup QB turned starter with a short leash to AFC Player of the Week following his 5 TD performance against the Bengals. They'll be going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league in the Raiders. After watching the game last week, it's hard not to like the weapons the Browns have on offense.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Jets

This is a must win game for a pair of 0-2 teams. A win for one of the starting QBs is just as important as both Chad Pennington and Trent Green are fighting to stave off challenges from recent draft picks. For the loser of this game, the calls for his backup will only get louder.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles

When the schedule came out, most experts probably thought this would be a matchup of a 2-0 team and a 0-2 team. However, few must have thought that the 0-2 team would be the Eagles. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offense have managed just one touchdown through eight quarters of play. On the other hand, Kicker David Akers is making fantasy owners happy with six field goals thus far. The Lions, 2-0, face a stiff challenge, traveling to Philadelphia in hopes of their first 3-0 start since 1980.

St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs – Rams

A revamped defense and All-Pro RB Steven Jackson were supposed to lead the Rams back into the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Through two games, Jackson has been bottled up. But the real problem is on the defensive side of the ball. Head Coach Scott Linehan thought he had addressed the run defense when he drafted DE Adam Carriker with their first pick in the 2007 draft. Unfortunately, the former Nebraska Cornhusker has been outmuscled, contributing only 3 tackles through two games. The Rams are giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Jeff Garcia has played mistake free football thus far for Tampa but that will come to an end this week. The Rams need this game too much not to have it.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos - Broncos

Jacksonville travels to Denver this week to take on the Broncos who are incredibly fortunate to be 2-0 instead of 0-2. First, there was the Chinese Fire Drill-esque kick against Buffalo. With no timeouts left, the Field Goal unit rushed onto the field, managing to snap the ball just as time expired as K Jason Elam sent the ball through the uprights for a 15-14 win. In overtime last week, they called timeout just as Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski kicked a game-winning field goal. Do over. Janikowski’s second try hits the left upright. Broncos Elam booted the winning field goal on the ensuing possession. This week, the Broncos host the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense must shut down the cutback lanes that were exploited by Tennessee’s Chris Brown in Week 1 to the tune of 175 yards. The Broncos’ zone-blocking scheme will give the Jaguars fits all day.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Panthers

Every time I checked in on the Falcons/Jaguars last week, Falcon QB Joey Harrington was getting sacked. He’s been sacked 13 times in just sixty-five dropbacks. That’s twenty percent of the time! Head Coach Bobby Petrino’s offense stresses three-step drops and quick passes. Harrington must get rid of the ball. It doesn’t figure to get any better this week as the Falcons face DE Julius Peppers and the Carolina Panther’s defense.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Redskins

Giants Head Coach Tom Coughlin entered the season, knowing that he was on the hot seat. But could he have ever expected the seat to get this hot this quickly? A stout defense has always been a staple of Coughlin-coached teams but the Giants defense has been atrocious thus far giving up eighty-points through two games. The injury bug hit the Giants, especially hard but the snake-bit Giants have already lost their starting RB while QB Eli Manning and lone receiving threat Plaxico Burress try to play through their own injuries. The Giants will have to come up with a Herculean effort to defeat the Redskins this Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Cowboys

I feel pretty stupid having not picked the Cowboys to be at the top of the NFC. In the vastly weaker conference, each contender had major issues coming into the season. The Seahawks had Shaun Alexander coming back from an injury-riddled 2006 campaign. The Saints had a very suspect pass defense. The Eagles had Donovan McNabb attempting to return from a serious knee injury. The Bears have Rex Grossman as their QB. The Cowboys This is a tough pick this week but I can’t in good conscience take the Bears with Wild-Eyed Rexy running the show. He has been terrible in his first two starts and it doesn’t figure to get much better this week.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints – Saints

This game is a must win for the Saints. They’re at home after two tough road games but they face a well-coached Titans team that nearly beat the Colts last week. Somebody recently said something about Vince Young that I thought was pretty accurate: “It’s never pretty with Vince Young but they’re never out of the game with him either.” Seems about right to me…especially on turf. New Orleans needs this game. I think they’ll make more of an effort to run the ball in order to open up the vertical passing game. Head Coach Sean Payton is a good game-planner and I think he’ll find a way to neutralize Young and get a Saints victory.

Labels: National Football League, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, NFL Week 3, Pro Pick

# posted by Nate @ 11:21 AM 0 comments