Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

“How Can You Not Love This Guy?” Player of the Week: Kerry Collins RECORD
Last Week: 9 - 4 Year: 54 - 34

So another week has passed and again, the Indians are on the forefront of my mind. Unable to clinch the ALCS in Game 5 last night at home, they have me supremely worried as the teams travel back to Boston for Game 6. But with the changing of the clocks coming up, the NFL season is heating up and it’s time to start picking out the contenders in each conference. With the season nearly half over, things are relatively murky in each conference. But one thing is for sure; the Patriots and Colts are the class of the AFC and the NFL. Following those two in the AFC, the Steelers and Chargers are in a class by themselves, clearly ahead of teams like the Jaguars, Ravens, and Titans. The Chargers stand above the Jaguars and Ravens because the offense as well as the defense has played much better in the last couple of weeks and if either of those teams were playing head to head against San Diego, I’d take the ‘Bolts. The Ravens 4-2 record is ridiculously misleading as their victories have come against the Jets, Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers. Impressive. To be honest, I’d take the Browns over the Ravens right now. Baltimore also remains winless within the AFC North, which could hurt them down the road.

In the NFC, I like the Cowboys although their performance against the Patriots, or rather Tom Brady’s performance in Dallas, illustrated the large gap between the two teams. After the Cowboys, I have to take the Packers by default. Their record is pretty good and they’ve found ways to win games despite an inconsistent offense. After Green Bay and Dallas, there are a bundle of teams with decent records but few noteworthy wins: Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New York. The best win by any of these teams I guess would be New York’s victory over the Redskins in Week 3, but their record is an unimpressive 3-2. When I look at this conference, I still like the Saints. They beat the disinterested Seahawks in Seattle last Sunday for their first win of the season and they play in a poor division. Sure, it would take some luck but I could see a late-season run. Of the 3-win teams, I like Washington most of all, though Seattle’s division is such a joke that they’ll make a run at 10 wins. My 2-win team is Philadelphia. If Westbrook can stay healthy, this team has a shot in the brutal NFC East.

That was therapeutic. That’s the first time in the last twelve hours that I haven’t thought about Fausto Carmona’s prospects in Fenway tomorrow if the home plate umpire doesn’t give him the low strike. I laid in bed last night, tossing and turning, thinking about what umpire would be calling the strikes in Game 6. Am I unstable or what!? On to the picks…

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills – Ravens

I’ll say it once and I’ll say it again. The Ravens are in the middle of a three game stretch where their biggest obstacle to victory is their own QB. If Trent Edwards can somehow manage to hold on to the ball and pick up some first downs, I could see the Bills winning this game. Whoever scores 15 points first wins this crap sandwich of a game.

Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions – Lions

It doesn’t get much better than this old NFC Central rivalry between two overrated teams with winning records. I would watch the Texans and Titans play before I’d watch this game. We could see a six way tie at 8-8 for the NFC Wild Card this season. Mediocrity...I mean parity is good for the NFL.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins – Patriots

Monday’s Headline from the Boston Globe: Pats bludgeon Dolphins, Clinch Outright Division Title.

Red Sox Season in Review Page 4

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Saints

I wonder what kind of odds Las Vegas would give on the Saints ending up with more victories than two of the following three teams: Lions, Seahawks, and Bucs. The Saints take their first step towards turning some heads. Following the Bucs “surprising loss in Detroit,” I wonder how many people will jump back on the Saints bandwagon in the coming week.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants – Giants

It’s amazing what a soft schedule can do for a quarterback’s stats and his support in the media. I heard three or four different NFL pundits, lauding Eli Manning this week, following his scintillating 2 TD, 2 INT performance against the hapless Falcons at the Georgia Dome Monday night. I remain unsold, especially after he cost me a fantasy championship last season. I am petty till the end.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins – Redskins

This longtime NFC East rivalry has always been a treat to the several fans who watch these games. I miss these old rivalries: Bucs taking on the Lions in the NFC Central and somehow Arizona playing on the Atlantic Seaboard in the NFC East. Fond memories of days long since passed.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans – Texans

With Vince Young iffy, I can’t see the Titans winning this game without him. Kerry Collins doesn’t exactly bring the same skill set to the table. The Texans need to rebound after struggling of late losing three of their last four games.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals – Bengals

Here is a game I would be interested in watching. Sure, the teams have a combined record of 2-9 but there are so many subplots. For the Jets, you have Chad Pennington and his likely final stand before backup Kellen Clemens takes over. For the Bengals, Marvin Lewis’ job looks anything but secure after a disappointing 1-4 start. The Bengals offense is dynamite but Lewis is a defensive specialist and their defense is by far their fatal flaw. The Bengals could be a dangerous team against opponents with playoff aspirations down the stretch in November and December.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders – Raiders

Sure, the Raiders were manhandled last week in San Diego. But the Chargers are finding their groove. Oakland is a talented young team with a good running game and a better than average defense. The Chiefs have found ways to win ugly in the last couple of weeks, evening their record at 3-3. On the road in Oakland, I don’t like their chances. Wait a second, an image just popped into my head; it was of Larry Johnson, running all over the Bengals last week. Now I am nervous. Hmm, I’ll stick with the Raiders and complain later.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys

How good is Adrian Peterson? You haven’t heard one person question his durability recently, which was all the rage in April. But let’s be realistic, it’s only been seven weeks. He is far and away the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. Despite his efforts, Tavaris Jackson can’t hold on to the ball on the road in Dallas. Cowboys get back to their winning ways after their loss to New England last week.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles

I think it’s fair to say that this is an elimination game for each team. The Eagles can’t possibly expect to come back from a potential 2-5 record in the rugged NFC East. With a loss, they’d be at least two games behind third place! A must-win for the Eagles. For the Bears, they too can ill-afford a loss. Their schedule down the stretch is fairly mild but a division crown would be very unlikely if they fell 3 ½ games behind the idle Packers this week.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Seahawks

A week ago, I called the NFC West slightly better than the NFC South. What was I thinking? The pathetic NFC West is fast becoming a pillow fight. The Seahawks and Cardinals find themselves at 3-3 but neither team is exhibiting any reasons why they deserve to win this division. Something tells me that this division battle is going to be a long drawn out affair with the division winner at 8-8 and certainly no better than 9-7.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos – Steelers

This is a dangerous game for the Steelers on the road at Mile High. It’s a difficult place to play and the Steelers still haven’t defeated a quality opponent yet. I like them here simply because I sat next to a Bronco fan last Sunday at the bar. After three hours, he had presented a fairly convincing and all-encompassing argument on why I shouldn’t have an ounce of confidence in the Broncos this week against Pittsburgh. He started with their defense. Willie Parker may be in for a good week.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Jaguars

The Colts have to lose sometime. They always do. I legitimately think the Patriots could go 16-0 but not the Colts. Now with their defense. The Jaguars had a ton of success last year running the football against the Colts defense. Indianapolis has had two weeks to prepare and equally important, get their defense healthy in preparation for this game. However, I like the Jaguars chances of winning a slugfest. Maurice Jones-Drew will be the difference for the Jags.

Labels: cleveland browns, Football, NFL, Patriots, Picks Week 7

1. Eric Wedge has pulled all the right strings in this series but Game 6 was the exact opposite. In a critical 7^th inning with the Sox up 2-1, Wedge trotted out C.C. Sabathia after 106 pitches to face the top of the Red Sox lineup. Sure, he had set down the paltry bats of Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Julio Lugo in the 6^th but he seemed gassed. The Indians pen has given up one run in the entire series! Use them. Rafael Betancourt relieved two batters later, but two runs charged to Sabathia gave Josh Beckett all the breathing room he would need.

2. Taking out reliever Rafael Perez in the 8^th in favor of Tom Mastny was simply dumbfounding. With the bases loaded thanks to an error, a bunt single, and a walk, Perez should have been allowed to work out of it. Since giving up back-to-back homers in Game 2, Perez, a key cog in the Indians pen, had not appeared. By pulling Perez in this situation in favor of a mediocre middle reliever, the Indians manager showed a complete lack of confidence in the young lefty. If Wedge was trying to keep the deficit at three runs, why not go to Jensen Lewis? Besides throwing gas on a fire by bringing in Mastny, any confidence Perez had after his rough Game 2 performance has now been completely eroded.

3. Josh Beckett is good. Real good. He is intimidating and dominating and once again, pitched superbly tonight. Too bad, Cy Young Award voting concludes before the playoffs. Sabathia, the likely winner, would certainly be a distant second at this point to Beckett. A nightmare keeps flashing through my head: Beckett jogging out of the Sox pen in Game 7 a la Pedro Martinez in 1999 and shutting the Indians down, keying a Sox series win.

4. Travis Hafner will have to go to the video room after this season. What a disaster. I have never seen him so completely out of whack. He is guessing on what pitches are coming…with nothing to show for it. He is zero for his last eight with six strikeouts. He’s lost all feel for the strike zone. He has just two walks and eight strikeouts in the ALCS. He must pick it up at Fenway Park this weekend or the Indians’ job is going to be much more difficult.

5. With Jake Westbrook taking the ball in a potential Game 7, one could argue…I will argue that the Indians season is on the line in Game 6 and rests on the right shoulder of 23-year old Fausto Carmona. There are two ways to look at that: 1) he is young and perhaps, unaware of the pressure of a fan base, thirsting for their first championship in 59 years, or 2) if things don’t go his way early, he unravels at raucous Fenway Park.

6. J.D. Drew will make more money over the course of his contract than the entire Indians team this season. Just so you’re aware, journeyman outfielder Bobby Kielty played in his place tonight with the Red Sox season on the line. No team has ever vanquished the Red Sox and Yankees in a single postseason. It would be a momentous effort, by a team built economically, to beat the payroll behemoths of the East.

I know, I know…the ravings of an angry and very nervous Tribe fan. I wonder if the Red Sox will buy Alex Rodriguez to replace Julio Lugo. So bitter. But that is the life of an Indians team. We’ll see what’s in store for Game 6.

1. 1. It’s an interesting experience to watch a playoff game with a fan of the opposing team. Tonight, I watched the game in my apartment with my roommate who is a huge Red Sox fan. We had our spats especially with the inconsistent strike zone of Home Plate Umpire Kerwin Danley. The humor reached a high point when in the ninth, Ryan Garko popped one down the first base line with the go-ahead run at second. Shouts of “Get outta play!” and “Come on…get over there Youk,” filled our apartment. I think we’re still friends…

2. It’s not surprising that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are having incredible postseasons. They are locked in and the strike zone has been tight in almost every AL playoff game I have watched thus far. In Game 2, I believe there was only one called strike three. While we’re talking about the Red Sox lineup, how about the at-bats of Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis? They have an eye for the strike zone that is unparalleled in my opinion.

3. Maybe I am wrong but the drama of the eleven pitch at-bat by Kevin Youkilis against reliever Rafael Betancourt with the winning run on second and two outs was unbelievable…and shouldn’t have been taking place at midnight on the East Coast. Why is this game starting at 8:23 p.m. on a Saturday night? Regarding the AB, afterwards, I was able to take a step back and appreciate the intense drama of that moment. ALMOST. I had to take two Maalox to settle my stomach.

4. I would be curious to know how many Indians fans were comfortable with a seven run lead and Joe Borowski on the mound…especially after two singles and the top of the Red Sox lineup looming. This guy is taking years off my life and thousands of others! There should be compensation for this sort of thing…a class action suit of some sort?

5. The key to the series may very well be the bullpen. Boston had to like their chances once Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Betancourt were spent. And if you had to guess who was more likely to get hammered by the opposing team, Tom Mastny or Eric Gagne, not many people would say Tom Mastny. What a performance in the tenth retiring David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell in order, especially when you consider that he went 2-0 on both Ortiz and Ramirez.

6. Right now, every string Indians Manager Eric Wedge is pulling is working. Allowing Trot Nixon to hit against Javier Lopez seemed questionable at the time but worked out as Nixon singled in the go-ahead run. Starting Franklin Gutierez after a dismal performance at the plate thus far in the postseason also seemed dicey but didn’t cost the Tribe.

Labels: ALCS, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, MLB Postseason