Saturday, November 18, 2006
Week 11: Browns Go for TWO in a row
RECORD
Week: 9 - 7
Season: 64 - 47
Well, clearly the biggest story this week is the Browns attempt to win two games in a row for the first time since 2003. To be honest, the most compelling football story this weekend occurred Saturday afternoon in Columbus when #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan clashed in a very entertaining game. Even the NFL paused for the spectacle. WR Braylon Edwards, a Michigan alum, practically begged Head Coach Romeo Crennel this week for permission to go to the game, a move that would have caused him to miss team meeetings Saturday afternoon. Edwards did not attend the game. But I am sure there were many former alums from both sides who play on Sunday, distracted by the hype of rivalry week. It will be interesting to see if a rematch comes about because I see both Florida and USC losing before the season is out. Back to the picks. I finally got back on the plus side last Sunday going 9 - 7 but the surprises and evenly matched games continue to cause me headaches. Week 11 offers more of the same. Picking who will win the Texans-Bills game is just as much of a crapshoot as picking the Chargers-Broncos. Away we go...
Chicago Bears at New York Jets - Bears
Here is a great test for the Jets and Head Coach Eric Mangini. After falling to the Browns twenty days ago, the Jets managed to come back and upset the Patriots in Foxboro last week. The Jets really don't impress me on either side of the ball. I can't help but think that the loss must have been very disconcerting for Patriots fans to handle. The Bears played well last week against the crippled Giants. The win fortified the Bears position for the NFC #1 seed in the playoffs and homefield advantage. However, I think it is very important for the Bears to win on Sunday against the Jets. A second loss to a run-of-the-mill team (their other loss was against the Dolphins) would bring renewed questions about Rex Grossman and the Bears offense. I like the Bears for the second straight week in the Meadowlands because the Jets are susceptible to the run and I expect the Bears to pressure Chad Pennington into bad decisions.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens - Ravens
Despite my desire to pick against them, the Falcons are a stunningly average team. Vick cannot beat a team that forces him to stay in the pocket, the receivers drop passes left and right, and the defense is susceptible through the air. However, Atlanta has found ways to win key games multiple times this season, notably in Cincinnati and against Pittsburgh. Rebounding from consecutive losses to the Lions and Browns will the a true test of character for the Falcons. The Ravens continue to be either extremely lucky or a decent football team. I can't believe I am about to utter these words but...Steve McNair has been playing well lately and he should find opportunities downfield against the porous Falcon pass defense.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints - Saints
The Bengals, what do you make of them? I don't have any idea. The team has literally imploded since the Patriots game in Week 4. The defense, previously exposed in losses to the Falcons and Ravens, was embarrassed in the second half by the Chargers to the tune of 42 points. Simply horrendous. Snakebit all year by untimely miscues and poor execution, the Bengals face the Saints Sunday, an opponent on the opposite side of the spectrum. The fairy tale season of the 2006 New Orleans Saints has been well-documented by media outlets but I still wonder about this team. The defense is iffy, as last week's loss against the Steelers proved, and the team is relatively inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball. Will New Orleans continue their success into December? I think the game against the Bengals on Sunday will go a long way in answering that question.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
I am on the Dolphins bandwagon. This is the team that is going to help me overcome my recent struggles in picking games. I took them last Sunday against the Chiefs and they rewarded my faith. I can't help but think that my comments last week will hold true: "You have to think you'll see a different Dolphin team in the second half of the season." I am in their corner despite inconsistent production from the quarterback position. Joey Harrington is hardly somebody you want to put money on. However, their defense led by Jason Taylor and RB Ronnie Brown are reason enough for me. Come on boys, make me look good.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers - Patriots
It seems strange to me that some people in the media are choosing to focus on this game. I guess it is interesting that Tom Brady and Brett Favre are going to play against each other. However, one is a little beyond his years and prone to bad decisions. Brady has looked very human lately with five interceptions in his last two games. It is surprising to see the Patriots struggle like they have the past two weeks. My godfather from Boston assured me yesterday not to worry because the team always struggles against the Jets and the Broncos. He didn't mention the Colts game. Going on the road, I suspect the Patriots to come out focused as they were three weeks ago in Minnesota. However, it could be an entertaining matchup as neither defense has performed very well this season.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs - Chiefs
You know, there is something interesting about this game. QB Trent Green returns to the field for Kansas City for the first time since he suffered a concussion on a brutal hit in the opening week of the season. Green reclaims his starting role from Damon Huard who performed superbly in relief. Thanks in large part to Huard, the Chiefs are 5-4 and are in the hunt for the wild card in the AFC. Coming off a tough loss in Miami, the Chiefs host the listless Raiders. Hmm, well not listless, maybe inept? They usually compete, they just aren't very good. At all.
St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers - Panthers
Early this season, the Panthers and the Giants were my darlings. Neither team could do wrong in my eyes. I always had an excuse. Well, I have moved on. I like the Dolphins now. It is good to be off the Panthers wagon because it forces me to look at the team with a critical eye. Well, you know, maybe my feelings haven't changed. I still think there is no explanation for why they aren't one of the top three teams in the NFC. It helps this week that they are playing the Rams who have fallen out of favor with me. How did they manage to lose Sunday in Seattle? It is rare that a team has a chance to turn their season around against a division rival who is missing both their star running back and pro bowl quarterback. And they lost anyway.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles
Well, I would say the Eagles have found a way to overcome their midseason woes. Host mediocre teams. Last week was the Redskins; this week, the Titans make the trip to Lincoln Financial Field. I really would have been impressed if Tennessee had managed to upset Baltimore last week. But I have seen it too many times to really credit the Titans for last week's effort. Watching the Browns for the last seven years, I learned that you can only take so much solace from playing a close game versus a good team. I see another good effort Sunday against the Eagles: 27-10 Philly.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs - Bucs
Joe Gibbs finally pulled the trigger this week, benching QB Mark Brunell for Jason Campbell. Out of Auburn, the Redskins first round pick in 2005 steps into a rough situation. With star running back Clinton Portis done for the year, Campbell faces an aggressive Bucs defense that boasts multiple blitz packages. Expect the Bucs to bring the heat early and often on Sunday in hopes of creating turnovers. Across the way, rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs have cooled off since their string of victories a few weeks back. I think the Bucs defense and playing at home propels the Bucs to a narrow, low-scoring victory.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans - Texans
Here is another game that you can't help but not care about. Unless you are like me and mildly interested in learning about how good the Texans can be next year. The Texans play a team not all that different from them. Both rely upon their defense to keep it close and the offense to manage the game. The Bills played tough last week in Indy but like I said before, close really doesn't matter all that much. The Texans are developing some chemistry and I look for that to continue this week in an ugly win. Also, just imagine if the Texans played the Jaguars every week. They could be next to the Colts for the best record. Talk about having a team's number.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals - Cardinals
This matchup has the potential to be a what were you thinking game for me. It probably would be anyway if I picked the Lions and they lost. Both teams are bad. I like the Cardinals because I picked up Matt Leinart in a desperate move to bolster my production at the quarterback position in my fantasy league. Eli has not been getting it done of late. Leinart said he is working to correct footwork that has caused him to play terribly in recent weeks. It is a lame excuse but I'll drink the kool-aid. Let's just recap the matchups this week: Titans/Eagles, Bills/Texans, Redskins/Bucs, Lions/Cardinals. So a quarter of the matchups this week are overwhelmingly uninspiring. I just thought I'd mention it.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck returns at quarterback for Seattle. Seneca Wallace did a fantastic job, steering the ship and keeping the team on top in the NFC West. The 49ers won last week in Detroit. I wonder if the Seahawks will get on a run and challenge Chicago for home field in the NFC. I doubt it. Either way, the team has the division crown all but wrapped up. I see them as a two or three seed. Does it really matter if they win 10 or 12 games? I am thoroughly unimpressed by this team and the rest of the NFC West for that matter.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys - Colts
So I think it best to keep picking the Colts until given a reason to do otherwise. I think this game as trouble written all over it for Indianapolis. The Cowboys possess a physical running game that they are unlikely to abandon as New England did two weeks ago. The Cowboys are a talented team that seems to be finding its stride since replacing QB Drew Bledsoe with Tony Romo. I can see the Cowboys winning this game, but Peyton Manning is really good at finding ways to win late. I see a Vinatieri field goal winning this game.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos - Broncos
I am taking the Broncos in this game despite my better judgement. I don't like Plummer, and their defense is nowhere near as good as ESPN hyped it to be leading into the Colts game. Those are the facts. However, as impressive as Phil Rivers has been, I am still not sold on the Chargers. How do I know for sure that the real Marty Schottenheimer won't reemerge and suddenly the offensive strategy revolves around killing the clock? This game will be quite an interesting one. The Chargers defense has looked rather pedestrian recently in games against Cleveland and Cincinnati. On the other hand, Plummer likes to throw interceptions. It's all very confusing. To close, I like Denver because they are at home and their defense has proven that it can contain Ladainian Tomlinson.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns - Steelers
I am finding that it is easier to pick against your team than for it. If I don't pick it, I don't care at all that I missed this game. If I pick the Browns, then I am an idiot, listening to his heart. The victory over Atlanta last week was such a pleasant surprise but the team still has major issues in the secondary and QB Charlie Frye can be counted on for one to two costly mistakes a game. The Steelers are a better football team than the Browns. They ought to win. But I really hope the Browns can find a way to win this game. Talk about needing one in this rivalry for the fans. Especially after the pasting the Browns received last year on Christmas Eve in Cleveland Browns Stadium: Steelers 41-0. We'll see what the team can do this year.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
I would have to be crazy to take the Giants on the road in this game. Yes, I know that I usually take them no matter the situation. However, I have changed my thinking of late. A rash of injuries and poor decisions by Eli Manning has forced me to reevaluate this team. I don't know if they are capable of winning this game on the road. It is an important game and they still have Tiki Barber but they will need more than that against a stingy Jacksonville defense.
Week: 9 - 7
Season: 64 - 47
Well, clearly the biggest story this week is the Browns attempt to win two games in a row for the first time since 2003. To be honest, the most compelling football story this weekend occurred Saturday afternoon in Columbus when #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan clashed in a very entertaining game. Even the NFL paused for the spectacle. WR Braylon Edwards, a Michigan alum, practically begged Head Coach Romeo Crennel this week for permission to go to the game, a move that would have caused him to miss team meeetings Saturday afternoon. Edwards did not attend the game. But I am sure there were many former alums from both sides who play on Sunday, distracted by the hype of rivalry week. It will be interesting to see if a rematch comes about because I see both Florida and USC losing before the season is out. Back to the picks. I finally got back on the plus side last Sunday going 9 - 7 but the surprises and evenly matched games continue to cause me headaches. Week 11 offers more of the same. Picking who will win the Texans-Bills game is just as much of a crapshoot as picking the Chargers-Broncos. Away we go...
Chicago Bears at New York Jets - Bears
Here is a great test for the Jets and Head Coach Eric Mangini. After falling to the Browns twenty days ago, the Jets managed to come back and upset the Patriots in Foxboro last week. The Jets really don't impress me on either side of the ball. I can't help but think that the loss must have been very disconcerting for Patriots fans to handle. The Bears played well last week against the crippled Giants. The win fortified the Bears position for the NFC #1 seed in the playoffs and homefield advantage. However, I think it is very important for the Bears to win on Sunday against the Jets. A second loss to a run-of-the-mill team (their other loss was against the Dolphins) would bring renewed questions about Rex Grossman and the Bears offense. I like the Bears for the second straight week in the Meadowlands because the Jets are susceptible to the run and I expect the Bears to pressure Chad Pennington into bad decisions.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens - Ravens
Despite my desire to pick against them, the Falcons are a stunningly average team. Vick cannot beat a team that forces him to stay in the pocket, the receivers drop passes left and right, and the defense is susceptible through the air. However, Atlanta has found ways to win key games multiple times this season, notably in Cincinnati and against Pittsburgh. Rebounding from consecutive losses to the Lions and Browns will the a true test of character for the Falcons. The Ravens continue to be either extremely lucky or a decent football team. I can't believe I am about to utter these words but...Steve McNair has been playing well lately and he should find opportunities downfield against the porous Falcon pass defense.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints - Saints
The Bengals, what do you make of them? I don't have any idea. The team has literally imploded since the Patriots game in Week 4. The defense, previously exposed in losses to the Falcons and Ravens, was embarrassed in the second half by the Chargers to the tune of 42 points. Simply horrendous. Snakebit all year by untimely miscues and poor execution, the Bengals face the Saints Sunday, an opponent on the opposite side of the spectrum. The fairy tale season of the 2006 New Orleans Saints has been well-documented by media outlets but I still wonder about this team. The defense is iffy, as last week's loss against the Steelers proved, and the team is relatively inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball. Will New Orleans continue their success into December? I think the game against the Bengals on Sunday will go a long way in answering that question.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
I am on the Dolphins bandwagon. This is the team that is going to help me overcome my recent struggles in picking games. I took them last Sunday against the Chiefs and they rewarded my faith. I can't help but think that my comments last week will hold true: "You have to think you'll see a different Dolphin team in the second half of the season." I am in their corner despite inconsistent production from the quarterback position. Joey Harrington is hardly somebody you want to put money on. However, their defense led by Jason Taylor and RB Ronnie Brown are reason enough for me. Come on boys, make me look good.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers - Patriots
It seems strange to me that some people in the media are choosing to focus on this game. I guess it is interesting that Tom Brady and Brett Favre are going to play against each other. However, one is a little beyond his years and prone to bad decisions. Brady has looked very human lately with five interceptions in his last two games. It is surprising to see the Patriots struggle like they have the past two weeks. My godfather from Boston assured me yesterday not to worry because the team always struggles against the Jets and the Broncos. He didn't mention the Colts game. Going on the road, I suspect the Patriots to come out focused as they were three weeks ago in Minnesota. However, it could be an entertaining matchup as neither defense has performed very well this season.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs - Chiefs
You know, there is something interesting about this game. QB Trent Green returns to the field for Kansas City for the first time since he suffered a concussion on a brutal hit in the opening week of the season. Green reclaims his starting role from Damon Huard who performed superbly in relief. Thanks in large part to Huard, the Chiefs are 5-4 and are in the hunt for the wild card in the AFC. Coming off a tough loss in Miami, the Chiefs host the listless Raiders. Hmm, well not listless, maybe inept? They usually compete, they just aren't very good. At all.
St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers - Panthers
Early this season, the Panthers and the Giants were my darlings. Neither team could do wrong in my eyes. I always had an excuse. Well, I have moved on. I like the Dolphins now. It is good to be off the Panthers wagon because it forces me to look at the team with a critical eye. Well, you know, maybe my feelings haven't changed. I still think there is no explanation for why they aren't one of the top three teams in the NFC. It helps this week that they are playing the Rams who have fallen out of favor with me. How did they manage to lose Sunday in Seattle? It is rare that a team has a chance to turn their season around against a division rival who is missing both their star running back and pro bowl quarterback. And they lost anyway.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles
Well, I would say the Eagles have found a way to overcome their midseason woes. Host mediocre teams. Last week was the Redskins; this week, the Titans make the trip to Lincoln Financial Field. I really would have been impressed if Tennessee had managed to upset Baltimore last week. But I have seen it too many times to really credit the Titans for last week's effort. Watching the Browns for the last seven years, I learned that you can only take so much solace from playing a close game versus a good team. I see another good effort Sunday against the Eagles: 27-10 Philly.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs - Bucs
Joe Gibbs finally pulled the trigger this week, benching QB Mark Brunell for Jason Campbell. Out of Auburn, the Redskins first round pick in 2005 steps into a rough situation. With star running back Clinton Portis done for the year, Campbell faces an aggressive Bucs defense that boasts multiple blitz packages. Expect the Bucs to bring the heat early and often on Sunday in hopes of creating turnovers. Across the way, rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs have cooled off since their string of victories a few weeks back. I think the Bucs defense and playing at home propels the Bucs to a narrow, low-scoring victory.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans - Texans
Here is another game that you can't help but not care about. Unless you are like me and mildly interested in learning about how good the Texans can be next year. The Texans play a team not all that different from them. Both rely upon their defense to keep it close and the offense to manage the game. The Bills played tough last week in Indy but like I said before, close really doesn't matter all that much. The Texans are developing some chemistry and I look for that to continue this week in an ugly win. Also, just imagine if the Texans played the Jaguars every week. They could be next to the Colts for the best record. Talk about having a team's number.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals - Cardinals
This matchup has the potential to be a what were you thinking game for me. It probably would be anyway if I picked the Lions and they lost. Both teams are bad. I like the Cardinals because I picked up Matt Leinart in a desperate move to bolster my production at the quarterback position in my fantasy league. Eli has not been getting it done of late. Leinart said he is working to correct footwork that has caused him to play terribly in recent weeks. It is a lame excuse but I'll drink the kool-aid. Let's just recap the matchups this week: Titans/Eagles, Bills/Texans, Redskins/Bucs, Lions/Cardinals. So a quarter of the matchups this week are overwhelmingly uninspiring. I just thought I'd mention it.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck returns at quarterback for Seattle. Seneca Wallace did a fantastic job, steering the ship and keeping the team on top in the NFC West. The 49ers won last week in Detroit. I wonder if the Seahawks will get on a run and challenge Chicago for home field in the NFC. I doubt it. Either way, the team has the division crown all but wrapped up. I see them as a two or three seed. Does it really matter if they win 10 or 12 games? I am thoroughly unimpressed by this team and the rest of the NFC West for that matter.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys - Colts
So I think it best to keep picking the Colts until given a reason to do otherwise. I think this game as trouble written all over it for Indianapolis. The Cowboys possess a physical running game that they are unlikely to abandon as New England did two weeks ago. The Cowboys are a talented team that seems to be finding its stride since replacing QB Drew Bledsoe with Tony Romo. I can see the Cowboys winning this game, but Peyton Manning is really good at finding ways to win late. I see a Vinatieri field goal winning this game.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos - Broncos
I am taking the Broncos in this game despite my better judgement. I don't like Plummer, and their defense is nowhere near as good as ESPN hyped it to be leading into the Colts game. Those are the facts. However, as impressive as Phil Rivers has been, I am still not sold on the Chargers. How do I know for sure that the real Marty Schottenheimer won't reemerge and suddenly the offensive strategy revolves around killing the clock? This game will be quite an interesting one. The Chargers defense has looked rather pedestrian recently in games against Cleveland and Cincinnati. On the other hand, Plummer likes to throw interceptions. It's all very confusing. To close, I like Denver because they are at home and their defense has proven that it can contain Ladainian Tomlinson.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns - Steelers
I am finding that it is easier to pick against your team than for it. If I don't pick it, I don't care at all that I missed this game. If I pick the Browns, then I am an idiot, listening to his heart. The victory over Atlanta last week was such a pleasant surprise but the team still has major issues in the secondary and QB Charlie Frye can be counted on for one to two costly mistakes a game. The Steelers are a better football team than the Browns. They ought to win. But I really hope the Browns can find a way to win this game. Talk about needing one in this rivalry for the fans. Especially after the pasting the Browns received last year on Christmas Eve in Cleveland Browns Stadium: Steelers 41-0. We'll see what the team can do this year.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
I would have to be crazy to take the Giants on the road in this game. Yes, I know that I usually take them no matter the situation. However, I have changed my thinking of late. A rash of injuries and poor decisions by Eli Manning has forced me to reevaluate this team. I don't know if they are capable of winning this game on the road. It is an important game and they still have Tiki Barber but they will need more than that against a stingy Jacksonville defense.
Monday, November 13, 2006
In the Post-Expansion Era, Does Good Hitting Beat Good Pitching?
TABLE BELOW
Well, I promised way back when that I was working on a study, comparing win/loss record versus game duration in Major League Baseball. I first had the idea a couple of years ago when the Indians went from being a perennial contender to a bottom feeder. Suddenly, 7 p.m. games were ending before 10 p.m., when just a few years previous, Indians games wouldn't conclude till 10:30 or later. With the help of my brother-in-law, we embarked on a mission to see what we might discover exploring game duration and any possible correlation to win/loss record. We decided to go as far back as 1996 because 1995 was a shortened season and 1994 was the lockout year. Using the last ten years gave us a pretty unique glance on how pitching and hitting have influenced win/loss records on post-expansion era baseball.
The process was rather painful. My brother-in-law downloaded the boxscore of every game, putting the information into a spreadsheet. I compiled a win/loss record for each team, noting overall record and yearly record. Having gathered data for over 16,000 games, I went back through, searching to fill in the blanks for games with either no information or skewed data. At times, this process was frustrating to say the least. (In the table below, we decided to normalize the games to 54 outs so that we could eliminate skewed results that variables like rain-shortened contests would have caused)
It was still necessary to find out the circumstances around these games so that we could have the option of including them in research down the road. Just to give you an idea of how tedious the process was...one day, I spent thirty-five minutes hunting for information regarding a June 1999 game between the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros. I finally stumbled upon the answer. In this game, Astros manager Larry Dierker had collapsed in the dugout, resulting in a suspended game that was finished at a later date. This was just one of several instances where bizarre circumstances had resulted in little or no information provided in the boxscore.
Below represent just some of our findings. In years 1998, 2001, 2003, and 2004, and over the ten year span collectively, we found that the Top Ten teams played 1% longer games than the middle ten. The bottom ten teams in the majors played 1% shorter games than the middle tier teams. An interesting result, yes but 1% is an insignificant percentage that can be explained away in a number of different ways. One example might be to argue that the top tier teams have been built to win with offense in recent years. And that may be true. People also might criticize the data because of the rule changes that have been implemented to try to speed up the game during the last decade. Still, our research reveals some fascinating bits of information that require further exploration.
During our study, we also discovered random points of interest. For example, in 2005, the Yankees and Red Sox averaged seven percent longer games than the average of all the top tier teams that year. Another fascinating tidbit: I was right about Indians games. In their last pennant-winning year, 1997, Cleveland averaged almost 3 1/2 hours a contest. During their 94 loss campaign of 2003, the Indians average just over three hours a game.
1996 - 2005
--------------------WINS---------AVG MINS/54 OUTS-----INDEX TO AVG--RUNS SCORED
TOP TEN----------9,410----------------179----------------------1.01------------8,365
MIDDLE TEN------8,078----------------176----------------------1.00-----------7,840
BOTTOM TEN-----6,469----------------174----------------------0.99-----------6,963
AVERAGE------------------------------176---------------------------------------7,723
Copyright, 2006
One situation that we failed to fully address in our initial research is the fact that the Yankees may play ten minute longer games than a team like the Devil Rays. But these two teams play against each other multiple times over the course of the season. So what kind of influence does this matchup have on each's game duration averages? I believe the next step to be looking at when top ten teams play each other and when bottom ten teams play each other. Analyzing game duration in these instances could reveal more significant data that might support my thesis. Other variables that we have taken into account in our study but not appearing in this summary include: average minutes per game extra innings or otherwise, runs scored by the visitor, runs scored by home team, runs allowed by home and visitor, and comparisons of the American League game versus National League game duraiton. If you have any feedback, don't hesitate to chime in with your thoughts.
Well, I promised way back when that I was working on a study, comparing win/loss record versus game duration in Major League Baseball. I first had the idea a couple of years ago when the Indians went from being a perennial contender to a bottom feeder. Suddenly, 7 p.m. games were ending before 10 p.m., when just a few years previous, Indians games wouldn't conclude till 10:30 or later. With the help of my brother-in-law, we embarked on a mission to see what we might discover exploring game duration and any possible correlation to win/loss record. We decided to go as far back as 1996 because 1995 was a shortened season and 1994 was the lockout year. Using the last ten years gave us a pretty unique glance on how pitching and hitting have influenced win/loss records on post-expansion era baseball.
The process was rather painful. My brother-in-law downloaded the boxscore of every game, putting the information into a spreadsheet. I compiled a win/loss record for each team, noting overall record and yearly record. Having gathered data for over 16,000 games, I went back through, searching to fill in the blanks for games with either no information or skewed data. At times, this process was frustrating to say the least. (In the table below, we decided to normalize the games to 54 outs so that we could eliminate skewed results that variables like rain-shortened contests would have caused)
It was still necessary to find out the circumstances around these games so that we could have the option of including them in research down the road. Just to give you an idea of how tedious the process was...one day, I spent thirty-five minutes hunting for information regarding a June 1999 game between the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros. I finally stumbled upon the answer. In this game, Astros manager Larry Dierker had collapsed in the dugout, resulting in a suspended game that was finished at a later date. This was just one of several instances where bizarre circumstances had resulted in little or no information provided in the boxscore.
Below represent just some of our findings. In years 1998, 2001, 2003, and 2004, and over the ten year span collectively, we found that the Top Ten teams played 1% longer games than the middle ten. The bottom ten teams in the majors played 1% shorter games than the middle tier teams. An interesting result, yes but 1% is an insignificant percentage that can be explained away in a number of different ways. One example might be to argue that the top tier teams have been built to win with offense in recent years. And that may be true. People also might criticize the data because of the rule changes that have been implemented to try to speed up the game during the last decade. Still, our research reveals some fascinating bits of information that require further exploration.
During our study, we also discovered random points of interest. For example, in 2005, the Yankees and Red Sox averaged seven percent longer games than the average of all the top tier teams that year. Another fascinating tidbit: I was right about Indians games. In their last pennant-winning year, 1997, Cleveland averaged almost 3 1/2 hours a contest. During their 94 loss campaign of 2003, the Indians average just over three hours a game.
1996 - 2005
--------------------WINS---------AVG MINS/54 OUTS-----INDEX TO AVG--RUNS SCORED
TOP TEN----------9,410----------------179----------------------1.01------------8,365
MIDDLE TEN------8,078----------------176----------------------1.00-----------7,840
BOTTOM TEN-----6,469----------------174----------------------0.99-----------6,963
AVERAGE------------------------------176---------------------------------------7,723
Copyright, 2006
One situation that we failed to fully address in our initial research is the fact that the Yankees may play ten minute longer games than a team like the Devil Rays. But these two teams play against each other multiple times over the course of the season. So what kind of influence does this matchup have on each's game duration averages? I believe the next step to be looking at when top ten teams play each other and when bottom ten teams play each other. Analyzing game duration in these instances could reveal more significant data that might support my thesis. Other variables that we have taken into account in our study but not appearing in this summary include: average minutes per game extra innings or otherwise, runs scored by the visitor, runs scored by home team, runs allowed by home and visitor, and comparisons of the American League game versus National League game duraiton. If you have any feedback, don't hesitate to chime in with your thoughts.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Anybody Interested in Being Considered a Super Bowl Contender?
RECORD
Last Week: 5 - 9
Season: 55 - 40
I have endured quite a streak of bad luck, picking games the last three weeks. Coming off my second straight week at 5-9, it is time for me to sound off. I can't understand why several top-tier teams have simply failed to show up at times this season. Off the top of my head, I can name three teams considered to be serious contenders who laid an egg last weekend (Bears, Patriots, and Falcons). In addition, there were four other possible playoff teams who lost winnable games (Vikings, Cowboys, Bengals, and the Rams). Does anybody besides the Colts want to declare themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders? As for the Bears, I said last week that Chicago seems destined for a divisional round loss in January. In the AFC, the Patriots have hosted two of the best teams in the conference at home this season, and been severely outplayed in both. I think this is the first time I have had the privilege of criticizing Bill Belichick since 1995. His game plan last Sunday night was bewildering. The Patriots should have stuck with the running game to grind out a win. Instead, throwing the ball all over the field resulted in four turnovers and a mind-numbing loss for New England fans. And the Falcons, I don't even know where to start with them. I have watched parts of their last three games and I still have no idea what kind of team they are. Today, I will get up close and personal with them as they host the Browns in the Georgia Dome. Week 10 offers a similar slate as last week, filled with trap games and must-win contests for playoff contenders.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions - Lions
Hmm, the 49ers and Lions, ehh. Both teams come into today fresh off upset wins at home over playoff contenders (Minnesota and Atlanta respectively). I think the Lions are starting to get comfortable in Mike Martz's offense. Recently, Jon Kitna has been playing relatively error-free at the quarterback position and Kevin Jones is doing a fantastic job finishing off his runs. In the first half last week, he lowered his shoulder and absolutely demolished Atlanta CB Jason Webster on his way to picking up a first down. On the other side, I can only express my sympathy for the fans at Candlestick (Monster Park??) who sat through the 49ers and Vikings 9-3 pillow fight last week.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings - Vikings
I figure the team most likely to play well in a matchup between two teams like this is the home team. Each team is maddeningly inconsistent and mediocre on their best days. Isn't it interesting that the Vikings have a decent shot at the playoffs? Personally, I don't think this team can be taken seriously. Although, I will certainly laud the signing of Chester Taylor in the offseason. He has met or exceeded every expectation the Vikings could have had for him. Still, a pedestrian quarterback and inconsistent play ultimately will doom this team's playoff chances.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars
In a meeting of the two teams three weeks ago, the Texans stunned the Jaguars 27-7. Since then, the Jaguars have played mistake-free football in wins over Tennessee and Philadelphia. With David Garrard making his third straight start at quarterback for the Jags, I would expect the team to avenge their earlier loss with a solid performance. Garrard has been the poster child of efficiency in his two starts and Coach Jack Del Rio is close to handing him the reins for the rest of the season in place of Byron Leftwich.
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Chargers
I don't know what to do with this game. I think the Chargers are capable of losing every game as a result of the incompetence of Marty Schottenheimer. Okay, I just read the comments made by Chad Johnson and other Bengal players. Wow, this team is in turmoil. This team is kind of like that really cool kid who is fun to be around when things are going good. But when he doesn't get his way, he turns into quite a little whiner. I don't know if this team can recover. If the team continues to fall flat on its face, it could get real ugly in Bengal country. It is a darn shame because Carson Palmer is quite a competitor who shouldn't have to put with the antics of Chad Johnson or Chris Henry.
New York Jets at New England Patriots - Patriots
Last week was just a speedbump for New England. Starting today, they can continue beating up on pathetic AFC East opponents on their way to the playoffs. It's worth saying though that the Patriots have yet to play well in big games this season. If the team continues its string of poor performances against top-tier teams, it will be hard for them to win in the playoffs. For the last five years, New England possessed this incredible ability to find ways to win games on the biggest stage. I am not sure this New England team has that same aura.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts - Colts
I am so disappointed that the Bills won last week. I thought I had a great darkhorse candidate for the first pick in the draft. Don Banks, of CNNSI.com, thinks the Browns and Texans will be playing for the first pick when they meet in Week 17. Wrong answer. Both of those teams have a couple more wins left in them. Back to this game, the Bills continue to spin their wheels without any discernible progress. J.P. Losman is terrible and it makes me sad. I have a soft spot for quarterbacks who are trying to avoid the bust label. I held out hope for Tim Couch for sooooo long. This one could be ugly as Willis McGahee is out for the Bills. I don't think Losman is capable of doing anything to positively influence this game for Buffalo.
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons
I don't feel much like talking about this game or analyzing the Browns chances. But I realized this week that I can't remember the last time the Browns won a game against an opponent when nobody gave them a chance. I think you have to go back to at least December 28, 2003 when the Browns beat the Bengals in Cincinnati, eliminating the Bengals from playoff contention. It might even be October of 2003 when the Browns thrashed the Steelers 33-13 in Pittsburgh on Sunday night in primetime. A win today would be such a boost for the fanbase and the team.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles
You probably have to give credit to the Redskins for their effort last Sunday against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, it was such a fluke win that I can't really offer any praise. The team really needs to stop playing Mark Brunell. I wish I knew a Redskins fan so I could hear their thoughts on the direction of the team. They are 3-5 and I don't think they have another miracle playoff run like the one they put together last year. I like the Eagles to win handily, especially coming off a bye week and before that, three consecutive devastating losses by a combined twelve points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
You have to think that you will see a different Dolphin team the second half of the season. An emotional win against previously unbeaten Chicago, in which few gave them any chance, should bolster team morale. I think they find a way to steal this game from Kansas City. If the Chiefs do win, I must tip my cap and recognize the job Herm Edwards has done, keeping Kansas City in the playoff hunt despite an 0-2 start. I just have a feeling about the Dolphins on this Sunday in November.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans - Ravens
I was passionately involved in the Bengal/Raven contest last Sunday. You can ask my buddy Jake. The Ravens turned two Bengal miscues in the first five minutes of the contest into fourteen points and the Baltimore offense didn't muster another touchdown. They are pathetic. What really drove me crazy was the fact that when the Bengals used zone coverage and blitz schemes, Cincinnati was able to take away Baltimore's short passing attack. On three different occasions when Cincinnati was in zone, Bengals defenders dropped potential interceptions. The Ravens had no business winning that game. I refuse to even consider them a Super Bowl contender. A team with merely a decent defense and a mistake-free offense beats the Ravens every time. Ahhh, I am going insane. To think, they are going to win the AFC North with little difficulty makes me sick. And I thought this was the toughest division in football. My mistake.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders - Broncos
This one should be ugly. In fairness, I thought the Steelers/Raiders contest would be ugly too. One sure thing is that Andrew Walter will be sacked multiple times this afternoon. I wonder if the spread for this game is higher than the over/under number on how many sacks Denver will pile up today?
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers - Saints
So it is official: I am abandoning my position on the Steelers. I don't think it is possible for them to turn their season around. How many times did they turn the ball over inside the Denver 10 last week? Four is the number I heard. The Steelers at home used to be something you could hang your hat on. Not anymore. The Saints impressed me last week with a win in Tampa, helping to ease the sting from the terrible game they played against the Ravens two weeks ago. Winning today would erase any lingering doubts. Beating the Steelers at Heinz Field takes a team effort. Pittsburgh's offense remains dangerous and their defense is still capable of wreaking havoc in the backfield with their aggressive blitzing schemes.
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals - Cowboys
Dallas reminds me of hmm, well nobody comes to mind. They have been involved in some absolutely bizarre outcomes. However, I am not sure any top last week's game against the Redskins. Three potential game-winning kicks in 31 seconds, are you kidding me? What's strange is that when I think about the games each of the two teams have been involved in, I feel like I should have somehow been able to predict that. Anyway, the Cowboys should win this game to help prolong their playoff hopes in this tumultuous 2006 season. Dennis Green's team is now playing for his job in 2007. I wouldn't want to be in Green's position.
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks - Rams
Maurice Morris is no Larry Johnson. The Rams are susceptible to the run but the Seahawks really aren't capable of generating much offense without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. That said, I like the Rams to find a way to win this game. If it hadn't been for Hasselbeck's heroics in St. Louis, the inconsistent Rams would be playing for the division lead. This is a must-win if the Rams want to be considered a legitimate playoff team.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants - Bears
I have enjoyed a fair amount of success riding the Giants this season. However, I don't like this matchup for New York. The Bears received their first jolt of reality last Sunday. The Bears defense was punished by Ronnie Brown to the tune of 157 yards rushing. Chicago's defense is going to come ready to play. I think the Bears will have a conservative game plan on offense to try to help limit Rex Grossman's mistakes. I see the Bears winning a slugfest on a late field goal.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers - Panthers
The Panthers are right there next to the Bengals and Falcons. I have no idea how this team manages to lose with the amount of talent they have. The Panthers have nobody to blame but themselves for their disappointing 4-4 record. Coming off a bye week, I suspect Carolina will emerge in the second half and establish itself as a legitimate candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
