Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

Last Week: 10 -3
Overall: 45 - 30

Can you feel it? Fall has finally arrived on the East coast. And I couldn't be happier. A cold wind and a brisk fall day embraced me as I left my apartment this morning. Despite autumn's introduction this morning, baseball still monopolizes my time, thanks to the Tribe's postseason run. Yet this week, I couldn't help but note an event that illustrates the overwhelming popularity of the NFL. Last Sunday, I trudged into my local bar to take in the Browns matchup with the Patriots. As the early games neared their conclusion, a couple of baseball fans entered the bar, looking to catch Game 3 of the ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels. The bartender could not find a television that didn't have people watching the NFL game being shown. Even the Cardinals tussle with the Rams could not be changed, despite the lack of fans for either team. And it got me thinking what a huge boon fantasy football has been to the NFL's popularity. It has given football fanatics more reason to watch teams outside their favorites. No matter what teams are playing or how bad a matchup is, there will always be some individual on a particular squad that draws fans' attention. Take that Rams-Cardinals matchup for example, fantasy owners watched with vested interest as key players like Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, and Larry Fitzgerald put up good numbers in what was otherwise an ugly game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs – Bengals

I was just thinking to myself, "What have the Bengals been up to lately?" They certainly needed the bye week, last week after that pummeling on MNF at home against the Patriots. It's strange to be picking the Bengals who aren't very good on the road at Arrowhead but that's how far the Chiefs have fallen this year with a dreadful QB and an equally bad offensive line. Plus, the Bengals love going 7-9 or 8-8 and just missing the playoffs. They start their traditional mid-October to mid-November run this week.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Jaguars

This is ridiculous. What a brutal game to have to pick. But I am going to take them. I said it at the start of the year how I am not going to get caught singing Jacksonville's praises the same week they drop a winnable game at home. But alas, here I am six weeks later. Their defense was impressive last week and I am confident they can score enough points to win this game. If the Jaguars are going to win this game, QB David Gerrard must not turn the ball over. It is as simple as that. If he turns the ball over a couple of times, I like the Texans. Wouldn't it be great if you could pick the teams to win conditionally? So basically, it would look like this:

Houston wins if David Gerrard's turnovers ≥ 2

Jacksonville wins if David Gerrard's turnovers ≤ 2

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – Bears

Last week at Lambeau Field, the Bears reminded fans that their defense is still a talented, ball-hawking unit as they surprised the Packers 27-20. Following their bye week, the Vikings look to Tavaris Jackson who returns after missing the previous two games with a pulled groin. Until Jackson learns to hold onto the ball, Vikings fans won't have much to cheer about besides the play of rookie RB Adrian Peterson.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns – Browns

The Browns have shocked their fan base this year with wins against Cincinnati and Baltimore at home. Since a dismal opening game against the Steelers, the offense has performed well thanks in large part to the superb play by the offensive line. No game is a sure thing for the Browns but this week at home is about as close as it gets. Who would have thought that Cleveland could be 3-3 at the end of Week 6 after watching the Week 1 debacle?

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers – Packers

Boy, talk of the Packers being the real deal and Brett Favre being the MVP sure slowed this week after the loss at home to the Bears. Maybe now, people can start to recognize that this team isn't as good as people want to believe. The unproven Redskins travel to Green Bay this week where Head Coach Joe Gibbs will hope to see continued growth from his young QB Jason Campbell. Each team currently has a record that belies major areas of weaknesses. For the Packers, it's the running game which is 31^st in the NFL. For Washington, their offense has been inconsistent, moving the ball at will on occasions and disappearing at other times. Please see Week 3 for a prime example. Packers at home are too tough for Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets – Eagles

It occurred to me this week that the Eagles are in a bit more trouble than I have been willing to admit. They are 1-3 in a NFC East Division that boasts a 5-0 Cowboys team and the Giants and Redskins, both three-win teams. There aren't any gimme wins this year within the division. If the Eagles want to have any chance of clawing back into the NFC playoff race, it'll have to start this week. The season is riding on the health of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Each must stay healthy and produce for this team to have any chance.

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Bucs – Titans

In the NFC South, things are pretty mediocre. After the Bucs, you have the Falcons, Saints, and the David Carr-led Panthers. For the foreseeable future, the NFC South will enjoy a reserved spot as the worst division in football. There isn't another division quite like it. The NFC West? Nah, they have the Seahawks and the Cardinals are kind of competitive. The NFC North? Maybe, but deceptively decent records in that division skew the depth of miserable football that resides there. I can't take the Bucs over a talented team that finds ways to win…even when their QB throws three interceptions and looks horrendous. Titans in a close defensive struggle.

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

Whatever the under in this game is, take it! Here are two teams with putrid offenses. I am not sure if I've ever seen as dull a game as the one witnessed last week in San Francisco. Okay, perhaps I have. But as crazy as it sounds, last week's 9-7 snoozer at Monster Park was between two possible playoff teams! Can you imagine Steve McNair and Trent Dilfer leading teams to the playoffs? Neither can I. Can the Ravens really make it to the playoffs using the same formula year after year? With games likes last week's, they might.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals – Cardinals

The Panthers are so desperate for a QB following injuries to Jake Delhomme and David Carr to a lesser extent that this week, they signed the ancient Vinny Testaverde who may get the start in this game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are putting along in the weak NFC West with three wins, despite the loss of Matt Leinart to a fractured collarbone. The Cardinals have the better back-up QB in Kurt Warner and a better team right now.

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys – Patriots

Critics are quick to point out that the Patriots haven’t defeated a quality opponent yet this season. Their victories have come over teams with a combined record of 7-17. But the Cowboys haven’t exactly faced the most talented teams in the league either. Their wins have come at the expense of the Giants, Dolphins, Bears, Rams, and Bills – who boast a combined record of 6-19! Don’t talk to me about the Patriots being untested. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers - Chargers

The sweeping changes that followed the 2006 season for the Oakland Raiders have paid dividends much sooner than many pundits expected. With LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas running the ball, the offense has earned a degree of respectability and were it not for a late timeout by Broncos Head Coach, Mike Shanahan, the Raiders would be 3-1. However, the Chargers found themselves in a big way last week, throttling the Broncos in Denver 41-3. The Raiders are making progress but the Chargers prove too tough at home.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks – Saints

When you think about the biggest disappointments of the year, the Saints certainly take the cake. What happened to Drew Brees? His touchdown to interception ratio of 1:9 is the most shocking statistic of the season. Everything has gone wrong for the Saints. RB Deuce McAllister is out for the season, the team has committed costly penalties at key moments, and the magic of the 2006 season just isn’t there. In spite of all that, I still like the Saints to turn it around and make a run at an 8-8 season.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – Giants

How about these two matchups for national television: Saints versus Seahawks and Giants versus Falcons? I can’t imagine either of these games faring well opposite postseason baseball games on TBS and Fox. The Giants haven’t convinced me that they are for real yet. However, I am not feeling that good about Atlanta’s chances this week. The Giants need to keep winning in order to keep pace with the Redskins for second place in the NFC East.

Random Scott Player Fact of the Week: P Scott Player was waived by the Browns earlier this week.

Labels: cleveland browns, New England Patriots, nfl analysis, NFL predictions, Week 6 matchups

So as we go to the top of the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium, both the Indians and the Yankees must start looking ahead to Game 4. But first, let us reflect on Eric Wedge’s management of his pitching staff tonight. Against a potent Yankee offense, SP Jake Westbrook skated through his first four innings thanks in large part to four double plays. In the fifth things fell apart as the Yankees strung together four straight hits, concluding with a three-run home run from Johnny Damon.

Eric Wedge faced a difficult decision in the bottom of the sixth: bring Westbrook back for one more inning or go to the pen and try to keep the game within striking distance? Hoping to sneak him through the sixth and save the pen, Wedge let the starter start the sixth. He induced a groundball off the bat of Alex Rodriguez that Johnny Peralta failed to turn into an out, to put it nicely. Curiously, Wedge yanked Westbrook and handed the ball to Aaron Fultz. Fultz proceeded to give up a base hit to Jorge Posada. A sacrifice bunt by Doug Mientkiewicz and an intentional walk to Hideki Matsui followed. Robinson Cano hammered a single to right that RF Trot Nixon misplayed allowing three runs to score. To all intents and purposes, the outcome of the game was decided.

I can respect the fact that Wedge faced a very difficult decision. Should he use his best relief pitchers in a game with the series at 2-0 with a likely Game 4 on the horizon the very next night? There isn’t a right answer. But if you are going to try to sneak Westbrook through an extra inning, he might as well have stuck with him than bring on Fultz. And once the bases were loaded, he needed to go to his best relievers. Even if LP Rafael Perez had given up the hit to Cano, you could have gone to a less important reliever in the later innings with the game out of hand. To leave Westbrook out there and then go to Fultz was poor management.

Now the question that ought to be considered by Wedge is whether to bring ace C.C. Sabathia back Monday night on three days rest for Game 4 Monday night? Even if Indians were to lose Game 4, Fausto Carmona would still be available on Wednesday on full rest in Game 5 at Jacobs Field. It would be a gutsy decision for Wedge to go with Sabathia instead of scheduled starter Paul Byrd. But Byrd is a soft-thrower who the Yankees hit hard earlier in the season and while Byrd has been with the Tribe. In three starts against New York the past two seasons, he is 0-3 and has allowed seventeen runs in twelve innings.

An interesting side note has arisen since I started this article: why is the Yankees most valuable reliever other than Closer Mariano Rivera in the game with a five run lead? Now, Joba Chamberlain has thrown thirty-eight pitches tonight and one must wonder about how long he’ll be able to go if needed tomorrow night.

Labels: AL Division Series, American League Playoffs, Cleveland Indians, Game 4 ALDS, New York Yankees