Saturday, October 21, 2006
Predictions for a Winter-like Week 7
RECORD
Last Week: 9 - 4
Season: 38 - 16
As November nears, it is becoming clear that winter is around the bend. Forecasts are calling for blustery conditions with rain and snow showers in Buffalo, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. Watching the Texas and Nebraska game Saturday, the wind and snow definitely was a factor in the game. It will be interesting to see how teams game plan, particularly in the kicking game. A couple of interesting matchups this week will
influence the AFC North as Carolina travels to Cincinnati and the Steelers meet the Falcons in Atlanta. With a Steeler win, Pittsburgh will suddenly find themselves just one game behind the idle, division-leading Ravens, despite a three game losing streak earlier in the season. The Bengals need a win to avoid a three game losing streak of their own. The matchup of the week though will come on Monday night as the Cowboys host the Giants in a critical NFC East game. The Giants continue to drive me crazy. I have had such a difficult time picking against them this year but I finally decided I ought to in Atlanta last week. They played horrendously in the first 35 minutes of that game before dominating the final 25. Hopefully, this game, they can erase my doubts about them. Without further ado, I present my picks for Week 7.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets - Jets
Following their first win of the season, the Lions travel to the Meadowlands to face the 3-3 Jets. Against the 30th ranked pass defense, Jets QB Chad Pennington will have ample opportunity to find WR Laveranues Coles who is second in the league in receiving yards. The Lions are a better team than their record indicates. Last week, Kevin Jones finally seemed to get on track with a season-high 127 yards rushing. However, the Lions are still not a team that can overcome mistakes and win on the road as the debacle in the Metrodome proved two weeks ago.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Patriots
The Bills started the season with a surprising effort against the Patriots on the road, dropping a 19-17 decision when QB J.P. Losman took a safety late in the game. Buffalo appeared to be headed in the right direction. Since then, they have played horrendously, most recently in embarrassing losses on the road in Chicago and Detroit. The offensive line has been porous, and RB Willis McGahee has proved a non-factor because the team has fallen behind early. The Patriots offense is starting to find its rhythm and should win this game on the ground. The weather at Orchard Park looks to be miserable so avoiding turnovers will be a focus of each team's offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons
One of the tougher games of the week, the Steelers travel to Atlanta Sunday to meet the Falcons. Always a tough opponent at home, the Falcons rushing attack must be working on all cylinders against Pittsburgh. Last week, I predicted Atlanta would win with Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn rushing the football. And they dominated the first two and a half quarters as Vick and Dunn combined for 214 yards rushing. However, the team fell apart in the second half as the Giants rallied to win with 24 unanswered points. After allowing 185 yards rushing to Tiki Barber, what does the Atlanta defense have for an encore against Steelers RB Willie Parker? I think the team comes out fired up with eight man fronts, forcing the Steelers to win the game through the air. Ben Roethlisberger's performance last week hasn't erased my doubts about his ability to win a game without the benefit of a functioning rushing attack.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans - Jaguars
Last Week: 9 - 4
Season: 38 - 16
As November nears, it is becoming clear that winter is around the bend. Forecasts are calling for blustery conditions with rain and snow showers in Buffalo, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. Watching the Texas and Nebraska game Saturday, the wind and snow definitely was a factor in the game. It will be interesting to see how teams game plan, particularly in the kicking game. A couple of interesting matchups this week will
influence the AFC North as Carolina travels to Cincinnati and the Steelers meet the Falcons in Atlanta. With a Steeler win, Pittsburgh will suddenly find themselves just one game behind the idle, division-leading Ravens, despite a three game losing streak earlier in the season. The Bengals need a win to avoid a three game losing streak of their own. The matchup of the week though will come on Monday night as the Cowboys host the Giants in a critical NFC East game. The Giants continue to drive me crazy. I have had such a difficult time picking against them this year but I finally decided I ought to in Atlanta last week. They played horrendously in the first 35 minutes of that game before dominating the final 25. Hopefully, this game, they can erase my doubts about them. Without further ado, I present my picks for Week 7.Detroit Lions at New York Jets - Jets
Following their first win of the season, the Lions travel to the Meadowlands to face the 3-3 Jets. Against the 30th ranked pass defense, Jets QB Chad Pennington will have ample opportunity to find WR Laveranues Coles who is second in the league in receiving yards. The Lions are a better team than their record indicates. Last week, Kevin Jones finally seemed to get on track with a season-high 127 yards rushing. However, the Lions are still not a team that can overcome mistakes and win on the road as the debacle in the Metrodome proved two weeks ago.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Patriots
The Bills started the season with a surprising effort against the Patriots on the road, dropping a 19-17 decision when QB J.P. Losman took a safety late in the game. Buffalo appeared to be headed in the right direction. Since then, they have played horrendously, most recently in embarrassing losses on the road in Chicago and Detroit. The offensive line has been porous, and RB Willis McGahee has proved a non-factor because the team has fallen behind early. The Patriots offense is starting to find its rhythm and should win this game on the ground. The weather at Orchard Park looks to be miserable so avoiding turnovers will be a focus of each team's offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons
One of the tougher games of the week, the Steelers travel to Atlanta Sunday to meet the Falcons. Always a tough opponent at home, the Falcons rushing attack must be working on all cylinders against Pittsburgh. Last week, I predicted Atlanta would win with Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn rushing the football. And they dominated the first two and a half quarters as Vick and Dunn combined for 214 yards rushing. However, the team fell apart in the second half as the Giants rallied to win with 24 unanswered points. After allowing 185 yards rushing to Tiki Barber, what does the Atlanta defense have for an encore against Steelers RB Willie Parker? I think the team comes out fired up with eight man fronts, forcing the Steelers to win the game through the air. Ben Roethlisberger's performance last week hasn't erased my doubts about his ability to win a game without the benefit of a functioning rushing attack.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans - Jaguars
Even if Byron Leftwich is unable to go for the Jaguars, backup QB David Gerrard has shown he is a capable replacement. The Texans offensive will struggle mightily against one of the best defenses in the league this year.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals
This is a difficult game to pick because it is hard to predict which Bengal team is going to show up. Will it be the one who started the season 3-0, finding different ways to win each week? Or will it be the team that has come out flat in two dismal performances against New England and Tampa Bay? Carolina has been a team I have been riding high on the entire season. The Bengals are a tough matchup for the Panthers defense because their offensive boasts such a balanced attack. I think the Bengals will have some success today moving the ball against the Carolina defense. Earlier in the season, the Panthers defense was susceptible to the run. I think the Bengals can pound the ball with Rudi Johnson. This could be the most entertaining game of the week as the Bengals eke out a win.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - Chargers
The Chargers come to Kansas City playing their best football of the season. Kansas City needs Trent Green back. Damon Huard played well for a few games there but he is certainly a non-entity against a good defense, which the Chargers possess. I am not sure about Phil Rivers just yet, but I still like the Chargers to pull out a tough win in raucous Arrowhead Stadium.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Bucs - Eagles
Bruce Gradkowski has made quite an impression in his first couple of starts, playing superbly against two decent defenses. Last week, he engineered a magnificent game-winning fourth quarter drive, tossing a three yard touchdown pass on fourth down with 35 seconds left. However, the Eagles need a win after a tough loss in the Superdome last week. In a very close game, I like Donovan McNabb's ability to lead the Eagles over the Bucs in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins
The Dolphins defense is not culpable for the Dolphins dismal start to the season. Miami is the fourth ranked defense in the NFL. Expect the Dolphins front seven to stuff the Packers rushing attack, and force Brett Favre into bad decisions. The Packers are a young team and will have a difficult time on the road under the Florida sun. Ronnie Brown will provide all the necessary offense for Miami.
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts - Colts
The Redskins are the most ridiculous team in the NFL right now. I know that is a bold statement but let's look at the facts. Washington has been disgustingly inconsistent. After a shocking win in overtime against the Jaguars, the Redskins have played terribly, losing to the Giants and Titans. The loss to the Titans, the first victory for Tennessee, was an especially painful loss, dropping the Redskins to the basement of the NFC East. It doesn't get any easier today against the Colts.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns - Broncos
Today's game in Cleveland Browns Stadium offers some interesting story lines as the front four of the Broncos all played for the Browns two years ago. Reuben Droughns, WR Quincy Morgan, and DE Michael Myers have exchanged words all week so look for both teams to come out fired up. The Broncos are the better team and should win this game. However, I expect it to be entertaining.
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders - Cardinals
The Cardinals travel to Oakland in hopes that the Raiders provide the balm to heal the self-inflicted wounds from the devastating loss to Chicago last Monday night. Matt Leinart has looked fantastic in his first two starts. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals come out with a sense of urgency against the Raiders. If they come out flat, the Raiders could surprise them but I expect the Cardinals to win this game.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks - Seahawks
The Seahawks return home to face the Vikings after a thrilling win last week in St. Louis. The Seahawks new stadium has become one of the biggest home field advantages over the last two years. Seattle once again calls on QB Matt Hasselbeck to carry the team with RB Shaun Alexander out of action for one more week. Minnesota will have a hard time putting up points against a respectable Seahawk defense.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys - Giants
Here again I find myself with a tough pick as the Giants go on the road against a talented team. I am taking the Giants because I have faith in their ability to put pressure on QB Drew Bledsoe. The Cowboys, yet to beat a quality opponent, have not played to their potential this season. I am starting to think that there is something to the theory that TO is a poison for a team. Eli Manning has gone on the road and led New York to impressive comeback victories against Atlanta and Philadelphia. I think the Giants find a way to win in what should be an exciting game.
Previewing the World Series
Enjoy T...
Just over three weeks ago, I wrote an article, documenting the collapse of the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals over the final month of the regular season. On Saturday night, the two teams face off in Game 1 of the World Series. Three weeks have passed and each team has shown that late-season struggles don't mean a thing in the playoffs. The Tigers, taking the 2oo5 White Sox as their model, have been dominant in the postseason. After dropping the opening game of the Division Series in New York, the Tigers have reeled off seven straight wins with fantastic starting pitching and timely hitting. The scrappy Cardinals took a different route to the World Series. In a marathon NLCS that included two rainouts, St. Louis found a different hero every night. In a classic NLCS Game 7, light-hitting Yadier Molina delivered a two run pennant-clinching homer in the ninth inning at rainy Shea Stadium in New York. However, on paper, the Tigers seem to have a distinct edge over the Cardinals in this year's fall classic. At the beginning of October, everything seemed to indicate that these teams were dead in the water.
The first of three major keys to the 2006 World Series is the starting pitching. The Tigers starting rotation has been nearly perfect this postseason. Excluding Game 1 of the Division Series, Detroit starters have posted an incredible 2.36 Earned Run Average. Kenny Rogers has pitched 15 consecutive scoreless innings in two starts this October. Injuries to the Cardinals rotation has forced Cardinal manager Tony LaRussa to piece together his rotation. Jeff Weaver, picked up off the scrapheap at midseason, has pitched tremendously this postseason, posting a 2.16 ERA in three starts. In Game 1, the Cardinals send rookie Anthony Reyes to the hill, bestowing upon him the distinction of being the player with the fewest career wins to ever start a World Series opener. Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and the aforementioned Weaver will have to be nearly perfect to match the talented Detroit staff.
Both teams have had their share of unsung heros in the 2006 playoffs. Brandon Inge, who carted a .253 batting average in the regular season, delivered three hits, keying a Detroit victory in Game 1 of the ALCS. Curtis Granderson has been on a tear, hitting .313 out of the leadoff slot for the Tigers. Perhaps not from an unlikely source, but I would be remiss not to mention the heart-stopping walkoff home run off the bat of Magglio Ordonez, propelling Detroit into the World Series. The Cardinals have experienced late game heroics from even more unlikely players. Sao Taguchi, David Eckstein, and Yadier Molina hit a total of ten home runs in the regular season in a combined 1,233 at bats. This postseason, the trio have hit five home runs, including two game winners in 81 plate appearences. Each team will need to receive contributions from all nine spots in the lineup in order to manufacture runs in this series.
That leads me to the third key for both teams: relief pitching. In what figure to be low-scoring
games, each team will need their bullpen to be sharp. Walks come back to haunt relief pitchers in the postseason. Each manager likes to use the sacrifice bunt and both teams are excellent in their execution. Both St. Louis and Detroit relief pitchers need to be able to come into games and throw strikes. For the Cardinals who lost closer Jason Isringhausen for the season back in September, Adam Wainwright must continue his excellent second season campaign. His magnificent curve ball in the bottom of the 9th that caught Carlos Beltran looking with the bases loaded to clinch the pennant shows the amount of trust the young righty has in his ability. With a healthy Joel Zumaya back after missing the ALCS, the Tigers also boast a strong back end to their bullpen. Todd Jones and Zumaya were dominant in the 8th and 9th innnings of the Division Series against the Yankees. If the Tigers can hold a lead into the late innings, Manager Jim Leyland must like his chances.
Breaking down the three critical components to the series, I like the Tigers in five games. With a week's rest before Game 1 tonight, the Tigers are a picture of health and have their rotation set to match the Cardinals. St. Louis arrives in Detroit tonight less than 48 hours since Game 7 ended in New York. Starting rookie Anthony Reyes in Game 1 against flamethrower Justin Verlander seems a mismatch, heavily favoring the Tigers. I am not sure the Cardinals bats will be able to produce enough runs against Detroit's pitching staff to stay with the Tigers consistent, if not spectacular lineup. I see the Tigers bringing home their first World Series title in 22 years.
Just over three weeks ago, I wrote an article, documenting the collapse of the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals over the final month of the regular season. On Saturday night, the two teams face off in Game 1 of the World Series. Three weeks have passed and each team has shown that late-season struggles don't mean a thing in the playoffs. The Tigers, taking the 2oo5 White Sox as their model, have been dominant in the postseason. After dropping the opening game of the Division Series in New York, the Tigers have reeled off seven straight wins with fantastic starting pitching and timely hitting. The scrappy Cardinals took a different route to the World Series. In a marathon NLCS that included two rainouts, St. Louis found a different hero every night. In a classic NLCS Game 7, light-hitting Yadier Molina delivered a two run pennant-clinching homer in the ninth inning at rainy Shea Stadium in New York. However, on paper, the Tigers seem to have a distinct edge over the Cardinals in this year's fall classic. At the beginning of October, everything seemed to indicate that these teams were dead in the water.
The first of three major keys to the 2006 World Series is the starting pitching. The Tigers starting rotation has been nearly perfect this postseason. Excluding Game 1 of the Division Series, Detroit starters have posted an incredible 2.36 Earned Run Average. Kenny Rogers has pitched 15 consecutive scoreless innings in two starts this October. Injuries to the Cardinals rotation has forced Cardinal manager Tony LaRussa to piece together his rotation. Jeff Weaver, picked up off the scrapheap at midseason, has pitched tremendously this postseason, posting a 2.16 ERA in three starts. In Game 1, the Cardinals send rookie Anthony Reyes to the hill, bestowing upon him the distinction of being the player with the fewest career wins to ever start a World Series opener. Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and the aforementioned Weaver will have to be nearly perfect to match the talented Detroit staff.
Both teams have had their share of unsung heros in the 2006 playoffs. Brandon Inge, who carted a .253 batting average in the regular season, delivered three hits, keying a Detroit victory in Game 1 of the ALCS. Curtis Granderson has been on a tear, hitting .313 out of the leadoff slot for the Tigers. Perhaps not from an unlikely source, but I would be remiss not to mention the heart-stopping walkoff home run off the bat of Magglio Ordonez, propelling Detroit into the World Series. The Cardinals have experienced late game heroics from even more unlikely players. Sao Taguchi, David Eckstein, and Yadier Molina hit a total of ten home runs in the regular season in a combined 1,233 at bats. This postseason, the trio have hit five home runs, including two game winners in 81 plate appearences. Each team will need to receive contributions from all nine spots in the lineup in order to manufacture runs in this series.
That leads me to the third key for both teams: relief pitching. In what figure to be low-scoring
games, each team will need their bullpen to be sharp. Walks come back to haunt relief pitchers in the postseason. Each manager likes to use the sacrifice bunt and both teams are excellent in their execution. Both St. Louis and Detroit relief pitchers need to be able to come into games and throw strikes. For the Cardinals who lost closer Jason Isringhausen for the season back in September, Adam Wainwright must continue his excellent second season campaign. His magnificent curve ball in the bottom of the 9th that caught Carlos Beltran looking with the bases loaded to clinch the pennant shows the amount of trust the young righty has in his ability. With a healthy Joel Zumaya back after missing the ALCS, the Tigers also boast a strong back end to their bullpen. Todd Jones and Zumaya were dominant in the 8th and 9th innnings of the Division Series against the Yankees. If the Tigers can hold a lead into the late innings, Manager Jim Leyland must like his chances. Breaking down the three critical components to the series, I like the Tigers in five games. With a week's rest before Game 1 tonight, the Tigers are a picture of health and have their rotation set to match the Cardinals. St. Louis arrives in Detroit tonight less than 48 hours since Game 7 ended in New York. Starting rookie Anthony Reyes in Game 1 against flamethrower Justin Verlander seems a mismatch, heavily favoring the Tigers. I am not sure the Cardinals bats will be able to produce enough runs against Detroit's pitching staff to stay with the Tigers consistent, if not spectacular lineup. I see the Tigers bringing home their first World Series title in 22 years.
Monday, October 16, 2006
The AFC North: The Toughest Division in Football...To Figure Out
AFC North StandingsBALTIMORE RAVENS 4-2
CINCINNATI BENGALS 3-2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2-3
CLEVELAND BROWNS 1-4
It was a mere six and a half weeks ago that the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers handled the Miami Dolphins with ease in a 28-17 victory. Soon followed were impressive road wins by the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals against the Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs respectively. Suddenly, people like Rod Woodson were calling the division the toughest in football. FootballLock.com commented on the Cincinnati win in Week 1: "Few teams win in Arrowhead, let alone hold the Chiefs to one TD and Larry Johnson under 100 yards. If Cincinnati's defense turns in performances like this all season, look out rest of league." ESPN was especially complimentary of the big three of the AFC North, ranking the Steelers number #1, the Bengals #4, and the Ravens #6 in the Power Rankings following Week 1. Praise for the Ravens included: "They sure looked like a team that is back among the AFC's elite..."
But here we are six weeks later and the Steelers are 2-3 and have yet to beat a top tier team. The Cincinnati Bengals were the consensus pick to dethrone the Steelers, especially after defeating the defending champs at Heinz Field in Week 3. However, the Bengals have dropped two straight, the latest loss coming at the hands of the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers who started rookie Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. The Ravens are also a team recently thrown into turmoil. Besides dropping Sunday’s game to Carolina, their second defeat in six days, the Ravens also lost starting quarterback Steve McNair to a concussion. The Ravens could not have asked for a better time for their bye week and thus, McNair is unlikely to miss any further action. But losing two straight has forced football experts to take a hard look at the Ravens issues on the offensive side of the ball. Breaking down the struggles of the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals is a manageable task but predicting how the 2006 season will play out for each team presents a much greater challenge.
The 2006 Steelers season remains in the hands of Ben Roethlisberger. At Carolina, home for Baltimore, and on the road against the Bengals in Week 16, the Steelers face a brutal finish that will most likely decide their playoff fate. The offensive line is no longer a dominant force and defenses are keying on the Pittsburgh rushing attack, forcing the Steelers to beat them through the air. However, Roethlisberger has been under duress most of the season. Having already been sacked 11 times through four games, that number is projected at 35 for the season. Entering the 2006 season, he had been sacked only 53 times in his career. As a result of the pressure, Roethlisberger has made poor decisions with the football, having already thrown seven interceptions in four starts. Perennially a league best, the rushing attack led by Willie Parker has struggled at times this year. The offensive line has been unable to control the line of scrimmage as in years past. All that recognized, the Steelers still boast a Top 10 defense statistically. A consistent performance from the offense and Roethlisberger down the stretch should assure them a Wild Card berth.
The Cincinnati Bengals are a team that was thought to be far and away the best team in the
division a few weeks ago. With all-pro talent at all of the skilled positions on offense, it is hard to understand how the team managed only 13 points on Sunday against the Bucs. A string of distractions off the field may have contributed to the stunted growth of the surprise team of 2005. The organization endured one embarrassing incident after another in the past ten months with multiple Bengal players caught on the wrong side of the law. Despite the turmoil, the team jumped out to a 3-0 start and looked poised to run away with the division. After beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the team has befuddled football pundits with two disappointing losses in a row. On Sunday, the Bengals were only 3 -14 on third down. Rated 23rd in third down conversion percentage, the explosive Bengals have failed to sustain drives, converting less than 33% of their third downs. As a result, the Bengals are ranked 28th in the NFL in time of possession. Opposing teams have been able to wear down Cincinnati's defense recently as the Carson Palmer led offense has failed to put together time-consuming drives. The answers must come soon for the Bengals as 8 of their final 11 games are against teams who currently have a winning record.It's not hard to pinpoint the major area of weakness for the 2006 Ravens. The offense, despite the addition of Steve McNair, has struggled to put up points consistently. The Ravens who are currently ranked 28th in the NFL in total offense fired offensive coordinator Jim Fassel today. The rushing game, traditionally the lynchpin to the success of the offense, is ranked 24th in the league. Former 2,000 yard rusher, Jamal Lewis is on pace to rush for less than 1,000 yards and looks in need of an early retirement. Their 4 wins to start the season seem less impressive when you note the 6-14 combined record of the opponents. Though the defense seems to have returned to its 2001 form, opponents have found the secondary susceptible to the big play. In their last four games, the defense has given up touchdown passes of 31, 44, 58, and 72 yards. Even with a favorable schedule down the stretch, the Ravens problems on offense and flaws in the secondary leave them unlikely to compete for the division crown. Though, a Wild Card berth is not of the question.
Six weeks into the season, more questions than answers have appeared about the top teams in the AFC North division. Concerns surrounding each offense are well-founded and how well the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals address these problems will ultimately decide who wins the division in 2006. Having pointed out the weaknesses of each team, I still see the Bengals and Steelers qualifying for the playoffs with the Ravens on the outside of the playoff picture.
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Picking Week 6: Are Last Year's Super Bowl Participants in Trouble?
RECORD
Last Week: 11 - 3
Season: 29 - 12
Week 6 presents some intriguing games that will help clarify who the best teams really are in 2006. Surprise teams of the season, New Orleans and St. Louis, host talented teams that will serve as a litmus test for each team. The Rams host 3-1 Seattle who have had two weeks to cope with the thrashing they received at the hands of the Bears in Week 4. Again without Shaun Alexander, they will struggle to establish the run against an opportunistic Rams defense. I foresee another long day for Seattle QB Matt Hasselback. The reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in particularly disturbing circumstances. Ben Roethlisberger looks uncomfortable in the pocket this season, and last week against the Chargers, threw off his back foot multiple times. His eagerness to get rid of the ball has him out of sync with his receivers. Today, the Chiefs come to Pittsburgh in a must win for the 1-3 Steelers. However, a multitude of injuries in the linebacking corps will make it difficult to stop the Chiefs RB Larry Johnson who will play, despite a strained neck suffered last week in Arizona. With that said, I present my picks for the sixth week of the NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions - Lions
The Lions are due for a win and I thought I had successfully predicted it last week against Minnesota. However, the team collapsed in the fourth quarter, giving up 23 unanswered points in the final fifteen minutes. Today, the Bills make another visit to the Midwest fresh off an embarrassing loss in Chicago. J.P. Losman has been maddeningly inconsistent for the Bills and was particularly awful last week. The drawback to picking Detroit is their offense lacks any identity. Like the Mike Martz coached Rams in '05, the team has a good running back and talented receivers. Now the Offensive Coordinator in Detroit, Martz has failed to consistently establish the run, putting the game in Jon Kitna's hands who has turned the ball over repeatedly. I still like the Lions in a close one.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens - Panthers
The Ravens are a beatable team if you can avoid turnovers and stop the Ravens running attack. The Panthers defense should be able to neutralize Jamal Lewis and DE Julius Peppers will hound Raven QB Steve McNair throughout the day. Peppers is playing like a man possessed and deserves MVP consideration. The Panthers were atrocius on third downs, going 0-11 against an under-manned Browns defense. Delhomme must find a way to get the ball to wideouts Keyshawn Johnson and Steve Smith this afternoon because the Ravens are susceptible to the big play. I like the Panther 16-13.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bengals
The Bengals travel to Tampa today to take on the Bucs who are led by rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo Rocket star played exceptionally in his first NFL start last week in New Orleans. The Bengals, coming off a bye week, have too much offensive firepower for the Bucs. Marvin Lewis will have the defense ready to play after a shocking-loss at home to the Patriots in Week 4.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys
I think the Texans are moving in the right direction but have yet to shown any signs of emerging from the bottom rung of teams in the league. The Cowboys should win easily as the Dallas offense produces a good game against a below average defense. The Texan defense was the elixir for Mark Brunell a few weeks back and will be this week for Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons
This is such a difficult game because I am in the Giants corner this year. Eli Manning is vastly improved and the Giants finally put together a solid defensive effort last week against Washington. However, I think the Falcons, ranked first in the league in rushing,will find running room today. On turf, RB Warrick Dunn and QB Michael Vick are virtually unstoppable. This should be an interesting affair and a very close game. But at home, I like the Falcons.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints - Saints
This season, I have really knocked the Eagles. This week, I pay lip service to the legitimacy of Philadelphia as QB Donovan McNabb certainly is the MVP through the first five weeks of the season. I am still not sold on the Saints. I think the team is playing beyond their talent, especially on defense. But right now, they are finding ways to win. This game is a tossup like the Giants/Falcons but I will remain consistent and take the home team.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams - Rams
Without Shaun Alexander, the Seahawks are one-dimensional. The Rams offense is starting to click in the new scheme under Head Coach Scott Linehan. The Seahawks have failed to impress me thus far. I like the Rams balance on offense with Steven Jackson running the football. Depending on Matt Hasselback, the Seahawks will be hard-pressed to match the Rams.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins - Redskins
The Jekyll and Hyde impersonation of the Redskins offense is hard to figure out. One week, they look great. The next, atrocious. The hardest part for me to understand is how this team ever looks good on offense. Perhaps, I don't give enough credit in recognizing their talent on that side of the ball. Clinton Portis is a great running back but I find it difficult to find anything likable about their passing attack. At any rate, I like the Redskins over the hapless Titans.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers
The Steelers are too well-coached to lose to a team at home who is playing with their backup quarterback. Expect Bill Cowher to blitz QB Damon Huard repeatedly on third down, harrying the inexperienced quarterback into bad decisions. I suspect the Steelers will jump on the Chiefs early, taking Chiefs runner Larry Johnson out of the equation. Look for Willie Parker to get twenty-five carries and the Steelers to get back to their winning ways.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets - Jets
Does Dolphin Head Coach Nick Saban really believe Joey Harrington is the answer to the Dolphins struggles? The decision to start the former Lions QB befuddles me. What happened to this team? The Jets play well at home and should find the Dolphins the perfect opponent to recover some pride after a pathetic performance last week in Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers - Chargers
The Chargers offense proves too much for the 49ers and the best defense in the AFC overwhelm young Alex Smith.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos - Broncos
I wish Oakland would surprise me with one well played game but I think the team may be headed for one of the worst seasons of all time.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals - Bears
Matt Leinart played superbly in his first start last week against the Chiefs. The Bears defense is a different breed of cat. I like the Bears in this one and again, I can't help but wonder how this game was designated a Monday night affair?
Last Week: 11 - 3
Season: 29 - 12
Week 6 presents some intriguing games that will help clarify who the best teams really are in 2006. Surprise teams of the season, New Orleans and St. Louis, host talented teams that will serve as a litmus test for each team. The Rams host 3-1 Seattle who have had two weeks to cope with the thrashing they received at the hands of the Bears in Week 4. Again without Shaun Alexander, they will struggle to establish the run against an opportunistic Rams defense. I foresee another long day for Seattle QB Matt Hasselback. The reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in particularly disturbing circumstances. Ben Roethlisberger looks uncomfortable in the pocket this season, and last week against the Chargers, threw off his back foot multiple times. His eagerness to get rid of the ball has him out of sync with his receivers. Today, the Chiefs come to Pittsburgh in a must win for the 1-3 Steelers. However, a multitude of injuries in the linebacking corps will make it difficult to stop the Chiefs RB Larry Johnson who will play, despite a strained neck suffered last week in Arizona. With that said, I present my picks for the sixth week of the NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions - Lions
The Lions are due for a win and I thought I had successfully predicted it last week against Minnesota. However, the team collapsed in the fourth quarter, giving up 23 unanswered points in the final fifteen minutes. Today, the Bills make another visit to the Midwest fresh off an embarrassing loss in Chicago. J.P. Losman has been maddeningly inconsistent for the Bills and was particularly awful last week. The drawback to picking Detroit is their offense lacks any identity. Like the Mike Martz coached Rams in '05, the team has a good running back and talented receivers. Now the Offensive Coordinator in Detroit, Martz has failed to consistently establish the run, putting the game in Jon Kitna's hands who has turned the ball over repeatedly. I still like the Lions in a close one.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens - Panthers
The Ravens are a beatable team if you can avoid turnovers and stop the Ravens running attack. The Panthers defense should be able to neutralize Jamal Lewis and DE Julius Peppers will hound Raven QB Steve McNair throughout the day. Peppers is playing like a man possessed and deserves MVP consideration. The Panthers were atrocius on third downs, going 0-11 against an under-manned Browns defense. Delhomme must find a way to get the ball to wideouts Keyshawn Johnson and Steve Smith this afternoon because the Ravens are susceptible to the big play. I like the Panther 16-13.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bengals
The Bengals travel to Tampa today to take on the Bucs who are led by rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo Rocket star played exceptionally in his first NFL start last week in New Orleans. The Bengals, coming off a bye week, have too much offensive firepower for the Bucs. Marvin Lewis will have the defense ready to play after a shocking-loss at home to the Patriots in Week 4.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys
I think the Texans are moving in the right direction but have yet to shown any signs of emerging from the bottom rung of teams in the league. The Cowboys should win easily as the Dallas offense produces a good game against a below average defense. The Texan defense was the elixir for Mark Brunell a few weeks back and will be this week for Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons
This is such a difficult game because I am in the Giants corner this year. Eli Manning is vastly improved and the Giants finally put together a solid defensive effort last week against Washington. However, I think the Falcons, ranked first in the league in rushing,will find running room today. On turf, RB Warrick Dunn and QB Michael Vick are virtually unstoppable. This should be an interesting affair and a very close game. But at home, I like the Falcons.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints - Saints
This season, I have really knocked the Eagles. This week, I pay lip service to the legitimacy of Philadelphia as QB Donovan McNabb certainly is the MVP through the first five weeks of the season. I am still not sold on the Saints. I think the team is playing beyond their talent, especially on defense. But right now, they are finding ways to win. This game is a tossup like the Giants/Falcons but I will remain consistent and take the home team.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams - Rams
Without Shaun Alexander, the Seahawks are one-dimensional. The Rams offense is starting to click in the new scheme under Head Coach Scott Linehan. The Seahawks have failed to impress me thus far. I like the Rams balance on offense with Steven Jackson running the football. Depending on Matt Hasselback, the Seahawks will be hard-pressed to match the Rams.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins - Redskins
The Jekyll and Hyde impersonation of the Redskins offense is hard to figure out. One week, they look great. The next, atrocious. The hardest part for me to understand is how this team ever looks good on offense. Perhaps, I don't give enough credit in recognizing their talent on that side of the ball. Clinton Portis is a great running back but I find it difficult to find anything likable about their passing attack. At any rate, I like the Redskins over the hapless Titans.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers
The Steelers are too well-coached to lose to a team at home who is playing with their backup quarterback. Expect Bill Cowher to blitz QB Damon Huard repeatedly on third down, harrying the inexperienced quarterback into bad decisions. I suspect the Steelers will jump on the Chiefs early, taking Chiefs runner Larry Johnson out of the equation. Look for Willie Parker to get twenty-five carries and the Steelers to get back to their winning ways.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets - Jets
Does Dolphin Head Coach Nick Saban really believe Joey Harrington is the answer to the Dolphins struggles? The decision to start the former Lions QB befuddles me. What happened to this team? The Jets play well at home and should find the Dolphins the perfect opponent to recover some pride after a pathetic performance last week in Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers - Chargers
The Chargers offense proves too much for the 49ers and the best defense in the AFC overwhelm young Alex Smith.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos - Broncos
I wish Oakland would surprise me with one well played game but I think the team may be headed for one of the worst seasons of all time.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals - Bears
Matt Leinart played superbly in his first start last week against the Chiefs. The Bears defense is a different breed of cat. I like the Bears in this one and again, I can't help but wonder how this game was designated a Monday night affair?
