Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

Last Week: 9 – 7
Year: 28 – 20

The last weekend of September might be my favorite for that very reason. The last weekend in September brings us the final weekend of regular season baseball and ushers in the real start to fall, October. I will soon be able to fully devote my Sunday afternoons to football without concern for my fantasy baseball team, the crazy NL playoff situation, and the race for home field advantage in the AL Playoffs. Soon, football will rule the day with playoff baseball games going late into the evening. What could be better?

It’s been a slow start to the year in terms of my picks. This week, I come storming back. The Rams and Saints look like they’re in serious trouble. Fortunately for the Saints, they have a bye. The Rams, not so much to be thankful for. This week’s loser of the Giants/Eagles game will have major cause for concern as well. But without further fanfare, I present my picks for week 4.


Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Texans

Coming off a tough loss at home last week, the Texans visit the Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons. The game will also feature Matt Schaub’s return to Atlanta following the off-season trade that sent him to Houston. Schaub and the Texans defense will both be looking to rebound from sub-par efforts last week against Indy. The Falcons cooperate and the Texans recover with a victory. Everybody wins!

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Jets

On this week’s edition of Remember When, “Do you remember when the AFC East was competitive?" Besides the Patriots, teams in the division (Bills, Dolphins, and Jets) are 1-8 with the lone win coming when the Jets and Dolphins squared off last week. The Jets are the least terrible team out of the three. Besides being injury-riddled, the Bills have been terrible on both sides of the ball with the lone bright spot being the play of rookie RB Marshawn Lynch.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – Browns

Still riding high after their win over the Bengals two weeks ago, the Browns host their third division rival in four weeks. Nevermind that bad loss in Oakland. The Ravens strong defense likes the big play whether it be making them or allowing them. Browns QB Derek Anderson likes to throw the ball down the field. Look for a couple of big plays from Browns receivers and a few interceptions from the Browns QB. If Anderson throws more touchdowns than picks, the Browns win. A rather simple formula, don't you think?

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Rams, they lose star RB Steven Jackson to a partially-torn groin and it’s revealed that Marc Bulger is playing with two broken ribs. Nothing has gone right for the Rams who have been decimated by injuries along the offensive line and now the backfield. On the bright side, the Rams team page on NFL.com reports no injuries. Hooray. Everything must be fine. Bulger and the Rams offense will have to play as they did circa 2004 to stay close to the Cowboys this week.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins – Dolphins

In a loss last week against the Jets, I thought the Dolphins offense made some major strides. First, they (hopefully) realized that Ronnie Brown needs to be the focal point of the offense. He has great speed, can run in between the tackles, and exhibited improved pass-catching skills. Last week, he racked up 211 yards in total offense with three touchdowns. After watching each of these teams last week, I like the Dolphins’ talent on offense against a suspect Raider defense that was supposed to be the strength of the team.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Bears

To some including myself, a Bears/Lions matchup doesn’t appear all that appealing. But this game really stands out to me this week. There are a number of different angles that interest me. First, how will Brian Griese respond to his first NFL start since 2005? How will the Lions defense respond after giving up 56 points to the Eagles last week? Are the Lions the confident team that appeared in the first two games or the same old Lions who struggle to overcome adversity?

For Bears Head Coach Lovie Smith, now couldn’t be a better time to make a switch at the quarterback position. Griese will face one of the worst pass defenses in all of football this week in Detroit. The defense should be able to keep the game a low-scoring affair. I like the Bears with Griese managing the game and Bears RB Cedric Benson chewing out yards on the ground.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Packers

I think this is a dangerous game for the Packers. Are they as good as their 3-0 record? NO! As I broke down this game, I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Vikings. The Packers defense has been solid during the first three weeks of the season. Meanwhile on offense, the Packers have been dependent on QB Brett Favre as the running game has been for the most part non-existent. Going into the Metrodome where they traditionally struggle gives me pause. But the Vikings offense outside of Adrian Peterson is just atrocious.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers – Seahawks

Remember when the 49ers acted like Ashley Lelie and Darrell Jackson would cure their offensive ills and give Alex Smith the additional weapons he’d need to succeed? Three weeks into the season, Lelie is a non-factor and listed as fifth on the 49er depth chart. Jackson leads the club with 186 receiving yards, but Alex Smith and the passing game has looked out-of-sync. As a result, teams are stacking the line to stop All-Pro RB Frank Gore who managed just 39 yards rushing last week in a loss in Pittsburgh. As long as Smith struggles, the 49ers offense as a whole will struggle. The Seahawks are a better defensive team than they were a year ago. This time around, they should be able to contain Gore and the 49ers.

Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers – Bucs

I can’t believe I am doing it. Maybe it’ll be a curse to the team. But for the first time since Jazzy Jeff Garcia left Cleveland, I am picking his team to win. He has shocked me with his sound decision-making in the young season. He has yet to throw an interception and been a model of efficiency, completing 66% of his passes. Surprisingly for the 2-1 Panthers, the offense has outperformed the defense. New Offensive Coordinator Jeff Davidson has done an excellent job of rotating RBs’ DeShaun Foster and D’Angelo Williams. A steady mix of play-action has helped Jake Delhomme put up better-than-expected numbers too. However, Delhomme suffered a strained shoulder last week and is questionable this week. But my major concern is a defense that is allowing over 20 points and 342 yards per game. Bucs win in a squeaker.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts – Colts

To put it nicely, the Broncos have struggled against Indianapolis at the RCA Dome. In their last two games played there, (when it mattered), the Colts have defeated the Broncos by scores of 41-10 and 49-24. This week, a resurgent Colts defense that has played incredibly since the start of the 2006 playoffs faces off against Denver’s fledgling offense. Led by young QB Jay Cutler, the Broncos have moved the ball well enough and can’t be unhappy about being 2-1. However, they are struggling to score in the red zone and with as much talent as they have on the offensive side of the ball, they should be better. For instance, they are the sixth best offense in football in yards per game. Every team in the top ten in offense is averaging at least 24 points per game. The Broncos are putting up 17 per game. To have any chance in this game, they’ll need to double their current scoring average. I don’t see that happening against the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals – Steelers

The unbeaten Steelers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals this week. The Steelers have been dominant in their first three games against clearly inferior opponents. This week, we’ll get a chance to see how good the Cardinals are. They’ve lost two close games at San Francisco and in Baltimore late, but sandwiched in between those losses was a big win at home against Seattle. The Cardinals must contain Willie Parker to have any chance in this one. The key to the Steelers is forcing them to beat you through the air. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has been solid but untested thus far. He is prone to making mistakes, especially on the road. Games against Oakland and Cleveland last year come to mind. The Cardinals will need a fast start against a tough defense. I expect to see former Steeler Offensive Coordinator and now Cardinals Head Coach, Ken Whisenhunt start the Cardinals in the no huddle. The Cardinals will play tough at home but through three weeks, the Steelers seem too formidable on both sides of the ball for Arizona.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers – Chargers

The Chargers return home this week after consecutive losses against New England and Green Bay. Their pass defense has been atrocious in the past two weeks while neither the offensive unit nor the defensive unit has displayed the explosiveness and play-making ability displayed in 2006. Luckily for them, they return home to sunny San Diego to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite a win last week at home against Minnesota, the Chiefs offense has played horrendously. The Chargers are looking to vent some of their frustrations from the past two games and the Chiefs should prove to be the proverbial punching bag.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants – Eagles

Is there a more entertaining division in football than the NFC East this season? You have the under-achievers, Eagles and Giants and the over-achieving Redskins and Cowboys. Thus far, the only team that looks as good or as bad as their record would seem to be the Cowboys, coming off a convincing win against the Bears at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Giants rose from the dead with 24 unanswered points and a dramatic come-from-behind victory against Washington. It was a bad loss for the ‘Skins who were in control of the game at home and let it slip away. They still had a chance late but poor clock management by QB Jason Campbell cost them a play inside the Giants five-yard line with under a minute to go. In Philadelphia, the Eagles finally played like the team everybody expected this year by crushing the Lions 56-21. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook continue to be the two keys to that offense. Each must be healthy and playing well for this team to be anything better than a Wild Card hopeful.

With that said 1-2 Philly and 1-2 New York battle on Sunday night. After their excellent second half, one wonders whether the second half was a sign of things to come for the Giant defense or an aberration. 97 points allowed through five halves of football really offsets any positives from one good half. A big question for the Eagles will be the availability of Westbrook who is questionable. If he can’t go, beating the Giants in a must-win game on the road will be much more difficult. As it stands now, I like the Eagles.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Patriots

The Bengals and their bumbling defense and special teams play host to the New England Patriots on Monday night. I don’t know where to start in criticizing the Bengals. I guess I’ll start with their special teams. They allowed 183 yards in kickoff returns against the Browns, worked all week to correct deficiencies, and then allowed a 72-yard kickoff return to start the game against Seattle. Nice work. Fumbling away the ball on a return late in the fourth quarter thus preventing one of the best QBs in football a chance to tie the game also wasn’t good. Lost in all this was a less terrible performance by the Cincinnati defense. But let’s cast all that aside and realize that this week, they host the Patriots. I expect the Bengals to put up points even with RB Rudi Johnson out of the lineup. However, I don’t see any chance of the Bengals slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots juggernaut offense.