Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

As some of you know, I like coining phrases at the beginning of each Spring Training that will come to define the season for the Indians. Following the success of last year's club and the phrase "Tribe in '05," I, like many fans, had high expectations for the team. With that in mind, I figured "Bang on the Sticks, Tribe in '06" might provide the spark the team needed to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001. However, the inability to replace key components of the '05 Tribe, a shaky bullpen, and a pathetic defense combined to doom the 2006 Indians.

Following the heart-wrenching campaign of 2005, General Manager Mark Shapiro faced a difficult task with starter Kevin Millwood and reliever Bob Howry commanding significant salaries on the free agent market. The closer, ageless Bob Wickman was also a free agent, thus a more dominant replacement was also a need. Adding a right-handed bat with some power rounded out the GM's wishlist. To replace Millwood, Shapiro landed free agent Paul Byrd who proved inconsistent, failing to come close to duplicating the numbers or the leadership of Millwood. The trade that sent Coco Crisp to the Red Sox brought veteran reliever Guillermo Mota along with top third base prospect, Andy Marte. In a seperate deal, Jason Michael joined the Tribe to play left field in place of Crisp. Unable to lure BJ Ryan or Trevor Hoffman to Cleveland, Shapiro brought back Ole' Milwaukee, Bob Wickman. His final acquisitions included Jason Johnson as a fifth starter from Detroit and Eduardo Perez as the right handed bat to platoon with Ben Broussard at first base.

The signing of Byrd, Johnson, and Michaels failed to improve the club and hurt the team's chemistry, a critical element to the success of the 2005 club. When Johnson was finally put on waivers in June with an ERA of 5.96, an Indians clubhouse official said no tears would be shed over his departure due to his cold, introverted personality. Byrd managed an ERA of 9.00 during April and did his best to remind Tribe fans of the movie classic, Major League II when he brawled with Wickman following an extra innings loss to Chicago in June. Michaels gets grouped with Johnson and Byrd because of the guy he replaced: Coco Crisp, one of the most popular guys in the clubhouse and whose departure shook up the clubhouse a great deal.

The bullpen, besieged by injuries in April, imploded during the first half of the season. Guillermo Mota and Fernando Cabrera exhibited an exquisite knack for missing the strike zone regularly, a trait later passed on to Fausto Carmona. Wickman, pitching on a buzz from all the chewing tobacco he put in his lip, managed to save just enough games to make him look effective, but heart-breaking losses to the White Sox and Reds on the same road trip in June, effectively ended any hopes for the Indians recovering from their early-season misfortunes.

When the bullpen wasn't screwing things up, the defense managed to lose games almost single-handedly. With the Indians clinging to a one run lead against the Cardinals June 29th, Catcher Kelly Shoppach dropped a popup in front of the plate that turned into a two-base error to lead off the ninth. Wickman promptly gave up the game tying double, but the game still looked destined for extra innings when the hefty closer induced a two out groundball to shortstop Jhonny Peralta with a runner on third. Peralta's throw in the dirt skipped by Victor Martinez who made a wild wave of his arm in some awful attempt to pick the ball. Martinez was playing first base as a result of his horrific defense against basestealers. In a game in July, the Yankees managed to steal six bases against the 2005 all-star backstop. Though he showed improvement during the second half of the season, his status as a catcher is one question facing Shapiro this offseason. Besides Martinez, Peralta and third basemen Aaron Boone consistently found themselves out of position, exhibiting a lack of range on the left side of the infield that devastated the Indians over the course of the season.

The play of Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner and the rest of the offense were one reason the team was occasionally worth watching this year. Hafner (6) and the Indians team (14) tied the Major League record for grand slams in a season. The Indians finished second in the Majors in runs scored as Sizemore led all big leaguers in extra base hits and runs scored. The two budding stars were repeatedly at the center of big innings for the Indians this season. Hafner, despite missing all of September, hit 42 home runs, finishing in the top five in walks, home runs, on base percentage, and slugging. The play of these two stars provide Tribe fans with at least two reasons to be excited for the 2007 season.

With the Indians out of contention by the all-star break, the organization was able to get a good look at some of the prospects they hope will fill in the question marks for the 2007 campaign. However, many questions still exist surrounding the bullpen, and most of the position players. Below is my general breakdown of the team of the Indians roster and how I see them contributing to the 2007 team.

Starters: C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Paul Byrd, Jeremy Sowers
Despite the team's struggles as a whole, the starters pitched tremendously the final two months of the regular season. The Indians led the league in complete games with thirteen. Sabathia put together a solid, and more importantly consistent season for the first time in his career. Cliff Lee proved himself a capable starter but failed to build upon his 18 win campaign of 2005. He must learn how to lower his pitch count. His option picked up, Jake Westbrook returns next season, having established himself as the new Charles Nagy. Byrd failed to live up to the organization's expectations but promised at season's end to return to form in 2007. Sowers looked fantastic as a rookie and the Indians hope he can continue to display his Maddux-esqe control in 2007.

Bullpen: The bullpen will undergo a complete overhaul as the team is in dire need of a veteran closer. Wickman, traded at midseason to the Braves, has already received a two year extension from the Braves, a sign of the extreme scarcity of available closers. The market is absurdly thin and bullpen help is a priority for the majority of the league. Thus, the Indians will have to either spend significant money or get creative in resolving the question mark at the closer position. Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera, Matt Miller, and Fausto Carmona will figure prominently in the configuration of the makeup of the 2007 pen. However, it all starts with the closer position...

Infield: Aaron Boone's departure is a forgone conclusion and the position will be up for grabs between Andy Marte and Kevin Kouzmanoff, two young right-handed bats with power who showed glimpses of their potential at the end of 2006. Each player remains a large question mark because Wedge desires steady production and solid defense from the position and both players have failed to distinguish themselves. Underachieving Jhonny Peralta will return at shortstop for the Indians in '07 and the organization just hopes he can revert back to his '05 form. During much of the season, Peralta looked off balance and uncomfortable at the plate, finishing in the top five in strikeouts. His defensive range must improve, but when he does get to the ball, his fielding percentage is respectable. The duo of Joe Inglett and Hector Luna manned second base following the trade of Ronnie Belliard, and Inglett provided a spark with the bat at times. However, neither player is a proven second basemen nor does either have a lock on the position. Ryan Garko shared time at first base with Victor Martinez, and displayed timely hitting with some power. His defense is a big question and given the possibility of a youth movement in the infield, a merely adequate defensive first basemen is a recipe for disaster. Unfortunately, there are more questions on the infield than answers. Beyond Peralta, it is difficult to predict who will be the opening day infield for the Tribe next season. I like Garko at first but I am not sold on the current options at second and third base.

Catcher: Victor Martinez continues to hit consistently for average but his defense behind the plate proved a major liability most of the year. Kelly Shoppach is an excellent defensive catcher and a decent hitter but will not see much action unless Martinez is moved to first base.

Outfield: Grady Sizemore will be patrolling centerfield for the Indians next season and beyond. His exceptional skills combined with his work ethic give him the chance to be an all star for years to come. Jason Michaels failed to distinguish himself in his first full season as a starting left fielder. It will be interesting to see if he gets another year to prove himself. I don't believe he will. He may be better suited as a fourth outfielder, his previous occupation. Shin Soo Choo hit well in his stint with the Indians, following his arrival to Cleveland in late July. There is a possibility that he could be the rightfielder next season, but I only see that happening if the Indians acquire a power-hitting right-handed hitter to man leftfield. Casey Blake is Mr. Versatility and will get playing time at up to six positions next season. The Indians don't seem to have any minor league outfielder capable of unseating the guys mentioned above.

I suspect a busy offseason for the Indians as they try to reconfigure the team to compete in 2007. Playing in arguably the most difficult division in baseball, it will be a struggle for the team to compete for the Central crown in 2007. However, fans of the Tigers last winter were probably uttering a similar phrase. So for now, we can think to our own image of heaven and imagine: Tribe in '07.

Similar to 2005, finding the candidate most deserving for the AL Most Valuable Player Award is a lesson in perspectives. Once again, we have to ask ourselves if a player who only hits (David Ortiz) deserves consideration for the league's top honor? Can a player win the league award, and still not be considered his team's MVP? Should pitcher Johan Santana who literally carried his team to a division title be considered, despite only pitching every fifth day? Or does Derek Jeter win his first MVP since ESPN's Baseball Tonight crew annoints him as the guy who should get it? Here are my Top 5 candidates of the award...

5. DAVID ORTIZ, DH, BOSTON RED SOX
AVG: .287, HR: 54, RBI: 137, R: 115
I am sure that many of my friends in New England scoff at this ranking, believing that he should be rated much higher. Ortiz proved the most exciting hitter in baseball through July, making walk-off hits seem almost mundane at Fenway Park. Besides leading the league in home runs, runs batted in, and walks, Ortiz finished third in runs scored. Recognizing that he was the most clutch hitter all season this side of Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard, a late-season slide by the Red Sox and his limited role in the field hurt his chances.







4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B, MINNESOTA TWINS
AVG: .321, HR: 34, RBI: 130, R: 97

A highly touted prospect who had yet to meet expectations, the light turned on for Morneau in 2006. Morneau increased his batting average an astounding 82 points and drove in 51 more runs compared with 2005. He became the first Twin to hit 30 home runs in a season since 1987. Hitting just .235 in June, the lanky first basemen hit .369 the rest of the way. His personal turnaround was a key component to the Twins incredible second-half run that helped them capture the Central Division crown. Minnesota's small-market and his rather quite demeanor hurts his candidacy for the MVP, but his equally qualifed teammate Joe Mauer ultimately dooms Morneau's chances.



3. JERMAINE DYE, RF, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
AVG: .315, HR: 44, RBI: 120, R: 103

Exhibiting more power at the plate, Dye easily trumped the 33 homers he hit in 2000, his previous career high. Hitting behind sluggers Jim Thome and Paul Konerko, Dye consistently made opposing pitchers pay for pitching around the two stars. Dye finished in the Top 5 in four categories including: slugging, OPS (on-base plus slugging), RBI, and in homers. Despite his career year, the White Sox tailed off late in the season, and were eliminated in the final week. The slide significantly hurt Dye's MVP hopes and doesn't figure to beat Mauer or Jeter.


2. JOE MAUER, C, MINNESOTA TWINS
AVG: .347, HR: 13, RBI: 84, R: 86
Mauer has fulfilled all the expectations for the Minnesota Twins since he was drafted first overall in 2001. The local boy from nearby St. Paul became the first catcher in American League history to win the batting title. His clutch hitting and .429 on-base percentage provided ample opportunities for the aforementioned Justin Morneau to drive in runs. Besides his outstanding skills with the bat, his play behind the plate merits him consideration for the Gold Glove. Mauer committed just four errors all season and threw out a robust 37.9% of all basestealers. Mauer, just 23, has become the posterchild for a resurgent Twins organization that was on the verge of bankruptcy and possible relocation just three years ago. A low-profile and teammate Morneau hurts his ability to make a run at Jeter.



1. DEREK JETER, SS, NEW YORK YANKEES
AVG: .343, HR: 14, RBI: 97, R: 118

Jeter, one of the biggest stars on the most popular team in the world, put together a spectacular 2006 season. Barely losing out on the batting title to Mauer and finishing just shy of the 100 RBi plateau, Jeter was second in the league in runs scored. He stole 34 bases and maintained a .417 on-base percentage. The shortstop turned in a respectable .975 fielding percentage. Appearing in 150 games, Jeter played a pivotal role early in the season when the Yankees were besieged by injuries. Playing shortstop for the most recognizable franchise in sports, Jeter should win the MVP by a comfortable margin over Twins catcher Joe Mauer.


This is my opinion, but like I said, MVP voting is all about perspective. Arguments can be made for Johan Santana and others not appearing on this list. Another valid question to ask is how valuable is Derek Jeter to a team filled with all-stars like the Yankees versus somebody like Carlos Guillen who performed superbly during the Tigers surprising season. It is important to recognize the crucial influence that the media plays in helping a candidate gain the upper hand in a race as tight as the 2006 AL MVP. As a coworker said to me: "The reason Guillen won't get any consideration is that nobody on Baseball Tonight mentioned his name." And don't even get me started on Grady Sizemore who put together a year never before seen from a leadoff hitter. These are the five players who I believe will finish in the Top 5 in voting...and deservedly so.

So, I think it is understood by the general populace of this country that late Sunday afternoons are all together depressing. Watching the sunset conclude an all too short weekend, thoughts turn toward the work week. But musn't we also reflect on the doings of the weekend in sports?

• First, did anyone, anyone at all, see the roughing the passer call made in the Panthers/Browns game during the second quarter on Jake Delhomme? Alvin McKinley grazed Delhomme's helmet with his outstretched hand, incurring the most horrendous personal foul I have ever witnessed. Sickening.

• The Lions utterly collapsed in the fourth quarter this afternoon in the Metrodome, surrendering twenty-three unanswered points to the Vikings in another devastating loss. I would have looked really intelligent if they had managed to hold on.

• I have been meaning to write a column about why Albert Pujols is my National League Most Valuable Player hands down. I haven't gotten around to it and probably won't. If anybody is moved to debate Ryan Howard, I'll write my article because the vote will be extremely close as both players are very deserving.

• I suppose I will produce a piece about the American League MVP because that is a heated topic with many realistic possibilities: Derek Jeter, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana, Jermaine Dye, David Ortiz, Grady Sizemore, etc... No, but seriously, Sizemore will get a couple of votes, I guarantee it.

• Well, once again, another successful postseason for American League baseball fans, living outside of New York. Rarely one to defend a Yankee, I do however think Alex Rodriguez is receiving way too much criticism for his postseason failures. Also, the firing of Joe Torre by George Steinbrenner would be a ludicrous knee-jerk reaction that would do very little to improve this team. Maybe, New York should try producing some homegrown pitching prospects instead of buying overpriced, over-the-hill starting pitchers. By the way, their lineup isn't even as good as any of those of the mid to late nineties Indians. I can't pick one so I will take the 1995, '97, or 2000 Indians lineup over the current Yankees. Now, that ought to raise some eyebrows.

• In my column earlier, I said that the Lions and the Raiders were the only two winless teams in the NFL. I was mistaken. The Titans are also without a win, despite a superb effort today in Indianapolis.

• Final thoughts: I thought the Browns special teams today proved that they are the best unit in the league. Dave Zastudil, the punter, kicked the ball tremendously today in windy conditions; Dawson was successful on four field goals; the returners, Joshua Cribbs and Dennis Northcutt, are showing teams around the league that they are a threat to break one each time they touch the ball. A pleasant surprise. The defense also surprised me, keeping the Panthers passing attack in check, and more impressively: holding the Panthers without a third down conversion. Despite my rosy picture, we did in fact lose.

• Ohh, I almost forgot. An Associated Press writer used the word genuflect in his recap of the Browns/Panthers contest today, making it good enough to be the word of the day. I thought it might be just a little bit beyond his audience. He used the term to describe Keyshawn Johnson's reaction when Julius Pepper was introduced. It means "to bend the knee or touch one knee to the floor in reverence or worship."

Year to Date: 18-9
FYI: I missed Week 1 and have just started picking the entire schedule each week. I don't pick with the spread.

So here we are, Week 5, and I am curious to see how the Browns respond tomorrow against Carolina on the road. Other than that, there are not a ton of games to get excited but will be difficult to pick nonetheless.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans - I like New Orleans in this game because they have played well thus far. But moreover, the Bucs haven't shown any real reasons why I should consider them on the road in the Superdome. Whether it is Simms or Gradkowski at QB for Tampa, I still like the Saints balanced offense to be the difference in this game.

Browns at Panthers - The Panthers. Their defensive line should wreak havoc in the Browns backfield. I hope Frye doesn't get hurt in this game. That is my biggest fear. Look for the Panthers to get the ball down the field for some big plays against the Browns depleted secondary.

Titans at Colts - The Colts are going to have a field day against a mediocre Titans defense. They will almost have as much fun as the defense who will tee off on Vince Young. This could be ugly. Anybody for Indy is a good fantasy play this week.

Rams at Packers - The Rams will win this game, but it strikes me that I still have a difficult time picking against the Packers at Lambeau Field. It is kind of sad to realize that the brilliant Favre era is over in Green Bay. The Rams dynamic offense is starting to find a rhythm and I expect a good day from Torry Holt and the Rams passing game.

Bills at Bears - J.P. Losman probably watched last Sunday's Bears game, witnessed the pummeling of Seattle QB Matt Hasselback by the Bears front seven, and is now having nightmares. Expect three-step drops and quick releases from Losman to prevent sacks. Anticipate interceptions. Bears.

Dolphins at Patriots - The Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment thus far in the young season. Culpepper looks lost and uncomfortable under center right now. He is driving me crazy as he continues to limit the fantasy production of WR Chris Chambers. The Patriots shocked me last week, perhaps a tribute to their coach. But I refuse to credit Bellichick. I like New England in a close game.

Lions at Vikings - So, we have the Lions along with the Raiders as the two lone teams without a win. Is that right? Off the top of my head, I believe that is correct. Yes, it is. Ok, so now it is only a matter of time before they win a game. I am going to take them in this one. What a stupid pick. So yeah, there it is. What are you thinking? Shut up, I think they can win. Are you serious? No, really, I do, I think.

Redskins at Giants - I have this hunch that the Eagles and the Redskins are just not that good. I have picked against each team in every toss up game this year. Until the Redskins beat the Jaguars last week, my strategy had worked. I think I am also biased towards New York because I have Eli Manning as my fantasy quarterback. I mean what else could explain me taking the Giants on the road in Seattle week 3. But I really don't like the Redskins offense and I like the Giants balanced attack to win this game. 31-24 Giants.

Chiefs at Cardinals - Hmm, so Matt Leinart will now quarterback Arizona. I don't know if this solves the offensive line issues the Cardinals have. This seems a recipe for disaster. The Chiefs really hammered the 49ers last week. The Cardinals have underachieved but will be tough at home. I think Larry Johnson and the Chiefs wear down the young Cardinals in the second half and win going away.

Jets at Jaguars - Can anyone explain to me what happened to the Jaguars defense last week? Abominable. Expect Coach Jack Del Rio to have them ready to play and firing on all cylinders. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to excel for the Jagaurs. Look for the rookie runner to get more opportunities to carry the ball. The Jagaurs prove to be too tough at home for the Jets.

Raiders at 49ers - Now that I have seen the Raiders up close and personal, I think it is conceivable that they won't win a game this year. Andrew Walter should not be starting for this team. Anybody is better than this. 49ers win an ugly affair.

Cowboys at Eagles - The game that everyone is talking about pits two teams that have yet to prove how good they are going to be. The Eagles don't have enough playmakers to be effective consistently. As I said a couple weeks ago, the whole offense is dependant upon Brian Westbrook. He is iffy. In Terrell Owen's return to Philadelphia, I like the other guys on offense for Dallas, Terry Glenn and Julius Jones, to help the Cowboys win a tough divisional game on the road.

Steelers at Chargers - This game is a rematch of a Monday night affair last season. The Chargers lost a hard fought contest in the waning seconds on a Jeff Reed field goal. I expect the Steelers to play a very physical game against the Chargers, similar to the strategy employed by the Ravens last week. Chargers should have never lost that game last week. That pissed me off. I like the Steelers to win this game on a Jeff Reed field goal just like last season.

Ravens at Broncos - The Ravens are killing me thus far, winning games they don't deserve in the least. I expect them to lose to Denver in a defensive struggle. The Broncos are stout against the run and solid against the pass. There is no reason to think the mediocre Raven offense will be able to move the ball. Same advice to Jake Plummer as I offered to Phil Rivers last week, don't turn the ball over and give the Ravens a short field. If he can do that, the Broncos will win.

So there are my picks this week. I have a real good feeling about Week 5. If everything falls into place, I expect a great record this week. I just need the Broncos, Cowboys, and Giants to pick me up. Go Browns, etc. Sidenote, I found it delightful watching the Yankees get eliminated by the Tigers. Tribe in '09.