Friday, October 10, 2008
Breaking Down Week 6
Week 5 was as unpredictable as any other this season: the Colts rally from certain defeat to an inexplicable cover, the Saints get two Reggie Bush punt returns for touchdowns and lose, the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger gut out a win on the road in Jacksonville without the hint of a running game. When I first looked at last week's slate of games, it looked like a straight-forward week with few chances for upsets. I touched on some of the headlines above but I didn't even mention the Dolphins defeating the Chargers for their second straight win or the Falcons behind rookie QB Matt Ryan getting a win at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. What is going on? This week's matchups on paper lack a headliner much like a week ago except perhaps the Patriots/Chargers game. Expert picks on ESPN.com reflect the seemingly predictable nature of this week's games. For nine of 14 games, the eight pundits either all or all but one of them pick the same team. But what the games thus far in 2008 have shown is that parity continues to flourish in the NFL and that matchups are never as clear cut as they appear on paper. On to the picks...
LAST WEEK: 9 - 5
SEASON: 47 - 23
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA - CHICAGO
I can't fully appreciate what the Falcons are doing because I haven't seen them play very much this season. The only thing I can really go on is their record and their success against teams with poor run defenses. Their wins have come against the 27th- (Packers), 30th- (Lions), and 31st- (Chiefs) ranked rush defenses in the league. Their two losses have come against teams with rush defenses ranked in the top half of the league. The Bears are ranked fourth in the league against the run and as I've been saying about the Falcons, Matt Ryan is not yet capable of carrying the Falcons to a win.
MIAMI AT HOUSTON - HOUSTON
How do the Texans respond after Sage Rosenfels' collapse against the Colts? I have no idea, but I like the way Houston played on defense last Sunday. Holding the Colts to just ten points for nearly 56 minutes impressed me. Steve Slaton looks real solid running the ball and I look for Matt Schaub to lead the Texans to their first win of the season against Miami. What a fall for Sage Rosenfels! He played error-free football for all but the final minutes of the Colts game but his comedy of errors cost him an opportunity at the starting job in Houston.
BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS - INDIANAPOLIS
With Troy Smith's improving health coinciding with Joe Flacco's recent struggles, Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh squelched any possible quarterback controversy in Baltimore by announcing that Flacco would start the rest of the season. In doing so, Harbaugh mortgages the 2008 season in the hopes of getting Flacco the necessary experience to find success in 2009. I believe that Harbaugh is also sacrificing the best defense Baltimore has had since their Super Bowl season in 2000. I wonder how happy 33-year old Ray Lewis is with the decision.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA - MINNESOTA
Not much to say about this one, the Lions are horrible. Last week's effort against Chicago was abysmal. And worse, Calvin Johnson, of the District 5 Marauders fantasy football team, had just two catches for 16 yards. Rod Marinelli, I know you're biding your time on head coach death row, but please, get the ball into the hands of your best receiver.
OAKLAND AT NEW ORLEANS - NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans hasn't caught a break all year from the officials: the poor spot on 3rd and 1 in Denver and then the missed facemask call Monday night that cost New Orleans the ball in the red zone. Drew Brees continues to put up numbers comparable to Tom Brady in 2007 but with little fanfare. I am not sure Tom Gable, interim head coach for the Raiders after the ouster of Lane Kiffin, sparks his team on the road to a victory. I don't know what happened in Oakland between Al Davis and Kiffin, but the young head coach seemed to get maximum effort from his players.
CINCINNATI AT NEW YORK JETS - NEW YORK JETS
I am trying to be real careful here in picking this game. I've watched the Bengals play two games in a row that they could have won. And I willingly admit that I haven't given the Jets any credit in 2008. I am taking the Bengals; one of the winless teams get off the schneid...a term that I hear originates from the card game Gin Rummy. UPDATE: Twenty minutes ago, Marvin Lewis announced that Carson Palmer will not play Sunday against the Jets.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY - CAROLINA
The last thirty seconds as they happened in my head:
Ohh, tough game...I don't know...physical game...Tampa at home maybe...I don't trust Jake Delhomme...but do I trust Brian Griese...Yeah, Tampa (typing Tampa Bay)...wait a second...JEFF GARCIA!!!...Tampa Bay??? (out loud)...Carolina.
ST. LOUIS AT WASHINGTON - WASHINGTON
At two different moments this week, I remembered St. Louis was playing Washington this week. On Tuesday when I first thought of the matchup, I picked up the Redskins defense in my fantasy football league. The second time I remembered this matchup was last night at about midnight. I picked up Washington's place kicker Shaun Suisham. I like the Redskins to win on Sunday.
JACKSONVILLE AT DENVER - JACKSONVILLE
This game and my pick proves that I am truly a forgiving person willing to give people and football teams second chances. Watching the Jaguars slowly and painfully lose to the Steelers was laughable. As the game went into the fourth quarter still within Pittsburgh's reach, I just waited impatiently for Ben Roethlisberger to lead the Steelers to an another inevitable "improbable victory." I like Jacksonville's ability to control the clock against Denver who looked sluggish for the second straight week in a victory over Tampa Bay. Denver's offense, which will have to outscore Jacksonville, has slowed down since it's explosive start to the season.
DALLAS AT ARIZONA - DALLAS
I would love to take Arizona here and the Cardinals are a difficult team to play at home. But the Cowboys have too many weapons on offense. It'll be a high-scoring affair but the athleticism on both sides of the ball for Dallas will be the difference. Look for Kurt Warner to put up big numbers but lose a fumble or throw a pick at the most inopportune time (as he is known to do) to cost Arizona a chance to pull the upset.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN FRANCISCO - PHILADELPHIA
With Brian Westbrook now suffering from two broken ribs, you have to wonder if the Eagles are snake-bitten for the second consecutive season. Donovan McNabb has rarely shown throughout his career an ability to carry the Eagles in the absence of Westbrook. I do think the Eagles have enough offense to get by San Francisco but in the brutal NFC East, this team may not finish better than 8-8.
GREEN BAY AT SEATTLE - GREEN BAY
The NFC West is a refreshing division. No matter how poorly a team plays, they are just one win from contention. I am not even sure you can rule out the Rams yet. Despite Seattle's pathetic performances on the road where they've been outscored 78-16, the Seahawks are just a win and an Arizona loss from being a half game out of first place. Unfortunately, Green Bay is in desperate need of a win and has more talent on the offensive side of the ball than Seattle.
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO - SAN DIEGO
At 2-3, San Diego needs a win this week before they head out on the road to Buffalo and then across the pond to London where they'll take on the Saints. But the Chargers haven't played well the last couple weeks. They needed 25 points in the fourth quarter to down Oakland two weeks ago before losing 17-10 in a sloppy game last Sunday in Miami. Meanwhile, the Patriots will play their second straight game on the West Coast after winning against the 49ers 30-21 last week. The Chargers are a better team than San Francisco and will be looking to avenge their AFC title game defeat from January. Matt Cassel will struggle against the Charger defense as San Diego prevails in a close, hard-fought, and physical game.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT CLEVELAND - NEW YORK
So I just typed Cleveland in and I took a moment to compose myself and take a sip of coffee...I should eat breakfast soon. It's nearly 3 p.m. Yup, I have to take the Giants as much as it disheartens me. Even if the Browns play well and have a lead late in the game, it won't be more than a one possession game. And as Browns Beat Writer Tony Grossi said in his podcast earlier this week, there is no way that I see Cleveland's defense stopping the Giants in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Browns lose a heart-breaker. OR DO THEY???
LAST WEEK: 9 - 5
SEASON: 47 - 23
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA - CHICAGO
I can't fully appreciate what the Falcons are doing because I haven't seen them play very much this season. The only thing I can really go on is their record and their success against teams with poor run defenses. Their wins have come against the 27th- (Packers), 30th- (Lions), and 31st- (Chiefs) ranked rush defenses in the league. Their two losses have come against teams with rush defenses ranked in the top half of the league. The Bears are ranked fourth in the league against the run and as I've been saying about the Falcons, Matt Ryan is not yet capable of carrying the Falcons to a win.
MIAMI AT HOUSTON - HOUSTON
How do the Texans respond after Sage Rosenfels' collapse against the Colts? I have no idea, but I like the way Houston played on defense last Sunday. Holding the Colts to just ten points for nearly 56 minutes impressed me. Steve Slaton looks real solid running the ball and I look for Matt Schaub to lead the Texans to their first win of the season against Miami. What a fall for Sage Rosenfels! He played error-free football for all but the final minutes of the Colts game but his comedy of errors cost him an opportunity at the starting job in Houston.
BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS - INDIANAPOLIS
With Troy Smith's improving health coinciding with Joe Flacco's recent struggles, Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh squelched any possible quarterback controversy in Baltimore by announcing that Flacco would start the rest of the season. In doing so, Harbaugh mortgages the 2008 season in the hopes of getting Flacco the necessary experience to find success in 2009. I believe that Harbaugh is also sacrificing the best defense Baltimore has had since their Super Bowl season in 2000. I wonder how happy 33-year old Ray Lewis is with the decision.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA - MINNESOTA
Not much to say about this one, the Lions are horrible. Last week's effort against Chicago was abysmal. And worse, Calvin Johnson, of the District 5 Marauders fantasy football team, had just two catches for 16 yards. Rod Marinelli, I know you're biding your time on head coach death row, but please, get the ball into the hands of your best receiver.
OAKLAND AT NEW ORLEANS - NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans hasn't caught a break all year from the officials: the poor spot on 3rd and 1 in Denver and then the missed facemask call Monday night that cost New Orleans the ball in the red zone. Drew Brees continues to put up numbers comparable to Tom Brady in 2007 but with little fanfare. I am not sure Tom Gable, interim head coach for the Raiders after the ouster of Lane Kiffin, sparks his team on the road to a victory. I don't know what happened in Oakland between Al Davis and Kiffin, but the young head coach seemed to get maximum effort from his players.
CINCINNATI AT NEW YORK JETS - NEW YORK JETS
I am trying to be real careful here in picking this game. I've watched the Bengals play two games in a row that they could have won. And I willingly admit that I haven't given the Jets any credit in 2008. I am taking the Bengals; one of the winless teams get off the schneid...a term that I hear originates from the card game Gin Rummy. UPDATE: Twenty minutes ago, Marvin Lewis announced that Carson Palmer will not play Sunday against the Jets.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY - CAROLINA
The last thirty seconds as they happened in my head:
Ohh, tough game...I don't know...physical game...Tampa at home maybe...I don't trust Jake Delhomme...but do I trust Brian Griese...Yeah, Tampa (typing Tampa Bay)...wait a second...JEFF GARCIA!!!...Tampa Bay??? (out loud)...Carolina.
ST. LOUIS AT WASHINGTON - WASHINGTON
At two different moments this week, I remembered St. Louis was playing Washington this week. On Tuesday when I first thought of the matchup, I picked up the Redskins defense in my fantasy football league. The second time I remembered this matchup was last night at about midnight. I picked up Washington's place kicker Shaun Suisham. I like the Redskins to win on Sunday.
JACKSONVILLE AT DENVER - JACKSONVILLE
This game and my pick proves that I am truly a forgiving person willing to give people and football teams second chances. Watching the Jaguars slowly and painfully lose to the Steelers was laughable. As the game went into the fourth quarter still within Pittsburgh's reach, I just waited impatiently for Ben Roethlisberger to lead the Steelers to an another inevitable "improbable victory." I like Jacksonville's ability to control the clock against Denver who looked sluggish for the second straight week in a victory over Tampa Bay. Denver's offense, which will have to outscore Jacksonville, has slowed down since it's explosive start to the season.
DALLAS AT ARIZONA - DALLAS
I would love to take Arizona here and the Cardinals are a difficult team to play at home. But the Cowboys have too many weapons on offense. It'll be a high-scoring affair but the athleticism on both sides of the ball for Dallas will be the difference. Look for Kurt Warner to put up big numbers but lose a fumble or throw a pick at the most inopportune time (as he is known to do) to cost Arizona a chance to pull the upset.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN FRANCISCO - PHILADELPHIA
With Brian Westbrook now suffering from two broken ribs, you have to wonder if the Eagles are snake-bitten for the second consecutive season. Donovan McNabb has rarely shown throughout his career an ability to carry the Eagles in the absence of Westbrook. I do think the Eagles have enough offense to get by San Francisco but in the brutal NFC East, this team may not finish better than 8-8.
GREEN BAY AT SEATTLE - GREEN BAY
The NFC West is a refreshing division. No matter how poorly a team plays, they are just one win from contention. I am not even sure you can rule out the Rams yet. Despite Seattle's pathetic performances on the road where they've been outscored 78-16, the Seahawks are just a win and an Arizona loss from being a half game out of first place. Unfortunately, Green Bay is in desperate need of a win and has more talent on the offensive side of the ball than Seattle.
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO - SAN DIEGO
At 2-3, San Diego needs a win this week before they head out on the road to Buffalo and then across the pond to London where they'll take on the Saints. But the Chargers haven't played well the last couple weeks. They needed 25 points in the fourth quarter to down Oakland two weeks ago before losing 17-10 in a sloppy game last Sunday in Miami. Meanwhile, the Patriots will play their second straight game on the West Coast after winning against the 49ers 30-21 last week. The Chargers are a better team than San Francisco and will be looking to avenge their AFC title game defeat from January. Matt Cassel will struggle against the Charger defense as San Diego prevails in a close, hard-fought, and physical game.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT CLEVELAND - NEW YORK
So I just typed Cleveland in and I took a moment to compose myself and take a sip of coffee...I should eat breakfast soon. It's nearly 3 p.m. Yup, I have to take the Giants as much as it disheartens me. Even if the Browns play well and have a lead late in the game, it won't be more than a one possession game. And as Browns Beat Writer Tony Grossi said in his podcast earlier this week, there is no way that I see Cleveland's defense stopping the Giants in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Browns lose a heart-breaker. OR DO THEY???
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Some Thoughts on the MLB Playoffs
So a friend of mine contacted me earlier this week, asking for a column about the baseball playoffs. I thought that I ought to oblige her although I am watching this postseason through the lens of last year's playoffs, which involved my Cleveland Indians.
1. Last night, while watching the Angels rally against the Red Sox in the eighth inning while simultaneously witnessing my friend, a die-hard Boston fan, suffer a complete meltdown, I was struck with one overwhelming thought: I am glad I am not experiencing what he is right now. Maybe this is an unrealistic goal, but I hope the next time the Indians are in the playoffs, I can watch in a detached manner. What's the major obstacle to this goal? Die-hard fans watch so many games during the regular season that when the playoffs roll around, the amount of time invested in a team becomes a psychological force so that the team's fortunes dramatically affect the mental state of the die-hard fan.
2. On the subject of the Red Sox, as I said just moments after Jason Bay slid home with the winning run in the ALDS, Boston fans are living a charmed life right now. Despite the fact that Boston has one of the best front offices in baseball and a plethora of talent on the field, results like Monday night's win go beyond talent. There has been an aura around this franchise since October 2004 and it has yet to dissolve, even though as Tom Verducci noted today, the stars from past postseason squads are no longer with the club. Treasure the ride New England.
3. You know the network executives are just praying for a Dodgers/Red Sox matchup in the Fall Classic: two teams with storied traditions, large television markets, and another thing they have in common: a future Hall-of-Famer happened to be traded from one team to the other this season. The Joe Torre-led Dodgers with the red-hot Manny Ramirez against the "scrappy" Red Sox could keep Peter Gammons, Joe Buck, and countless other postseason pundits talking endlessly...for better or worse.
4. Sure, the Brewers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. And yes, C.C. Sabathia didn't pitch well allowing a 300-foot pop fly grand slam to Shane Victorino in Game two. However, I still believe he deserves serious Cy Young consideration in the N.L. Sabathia was the reason the Brewers made the playoffs, going 11-2 in 17 starts with a 1.65 ERA. The Brewers went 14-3 in Sabathia's starts after he was acquired, 11 games over .5oo. In that period, Milwaukee went just 36-29 on days C.C. didn't start. His importance to the Brewers playoff run and his dominance of the N.L. cannot be understated. Are his stats impressive enough to sway voters? We'll see.
5. Though I am not sure the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, I think they'll win the World Series. Tampa Bay is a young team and they'll need to win at least one and I think, probably two games in Boston to defeat the Red Sox in the ALCS. I don't see it. The Boston lineup is filled with hitters that wear down pitchers by working the count. I don't see that same plate discipline for Tampa Bay. Their inexperience will get the best of them and Boston will take advantage winning the series in 6 games. As for the Dodgers or Phillies, Boston will have homefield advantage and are just too fundamentally sound to be defeated by teams that don't have the pitching depth to overcome the Sox lineup.
