Fire from the Hip: Thoughts on Sports & Real Life

RECORD
Last Week: 5 - 9
Season: 55 - 40

I have endured quite a streak of bad luck, picking games the last three weeks. Coming off my second straight week at 5-9, it is time for me to sound off. I can't understand why several top-tier teams have simply failed to show up at times this season. Off the top of my head, I can name three teams considered to be serious contenders who laid an egg last weekend (Bears, Patriots, and Falcons). In addition, there were four other possible playoff teams who lost winnable games (Vikings, Cowboys, Bengals, and the Rams). Does anybody besides the Colts want to declare themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders? As for the Bears, I said last week that Chicago seems destined for a divisional round loss in January. In the AFC, the Patriots have hosted two of the best teams in the conference at home this season, and been severely outplayed in both. I think this is the first time I have had the privilege of criticizing Bill Belichick since 1995. His game plan last Sunday night was bewildering. The Patriots should have stuck with the running game to grind out a win. Instead, throwing the ball all over the field resulted in four turnovers and a mind-numbing loss for New England fans. And the Falcons, I don't even know where to start with them. I have watched parts of their last three games and I still have no idea what kind of team they are. Today, I will get up close and personal with them as they host the Browns in the Georgia Dome. Week 10 offers a similar slate as last week, filled with trap games and must-win contests for playoff contenders.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions - Lions

Hmm, the 49ers and Lions, ehh. Both teams come into today fresh off upset wins at home over playoff contenders (Minnesota and Atlanta respectively). I think the Lions are starting to get comfortable in Mike Martz's offense. Recently, Jon Kitna has been playing relatively error-free at the quarterback position and Kevin Jones is doing a fantastic job finishing off his runs. In the first half last week, he lowered his shoulder and absolutely demolished Atlanta CB Jason Webster on his way to picking up a first down. On the other side, I can only express my sympathy for the fans at Candlestick (Monster Park??) who sat through the 49ers and Vikings 9-3 pillow fight last week.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings - Vikings

I figure the team most likely to play well in a matchup between two teams like this is the home team. Each team is maddeningly inconsistent and mediocre on their best days. Isn't it interesting that the Vikings have a decent shot at the playoffs? Personally, I don't think this team can be taken seriously. Although, I will certainly laud the signing of Chester Taylor in the offseason. He has met or exceeded every expectation the Vikings could have had for him. Still, a pedestrian quarterback and inconsistent play ultimately will doom this team's playoff chances.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars

In a meeting of the two teams three weeks ago, the Texans stunned the Jaguars 27-7. Since then, the Jaguars have played mistake-free football in wins over Tennessee and Philadelphia. With David Garrard making his third straight start at quarterback for the Jags, I would expect the team to avenge their earlier loss with a solid performance. Garrard has been the poster child of efficiency in his two starts and Coach Jack Del Rio is close to handing him the reins for the rest of the season in place of Byron Leftwich.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Chargers

I don't know what to do with this game. I think the Chargers are capable of losing every game as a result of the incompetence of Marty Schottenheimer. Okay, I just read the comments made by Chad Johnson and other Bengal players. Wow, this team is in turmoil. This team is kind of like that really cool kid who is fun to be around when things are going good. But when he doesn't get his way, he turns into quite a little whiner. I don't know if this team can recover. If the team continues to fall flat on its face, it could get real ugly in Bengal country. It is a darn shame because Carson Palmer is quite a competitor who shouldn't have to put with the antics of Chad Johnson or Chris Henry.

New York Jets at New England Patriots - Patriots

Last week was just a speedbump for New England. Starting today, they can continue beating up on pathetic AFC East opponents on their way to the playoffs. It's worth saying though that the Patriots have yet to play well in big games this season. If the team continues its string of poor performances against top-tier teams, it will be hard for them to win in the playoffs. For the last five years, New England possessed this incredible ability to find ways to win games on the biggest stage. I am not sure this New England team has that same aura.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts - Colts

I am so disappointed that the Bills won last week. I thought I had a great darkhorse candidate for the first pick in the draft. Don Banks, of CNNSI.com, thinks the Browns and Texans will be playing for the first pick when they meet in Week 17. Wrong answer. Both of those teams have a couple more wins left in them. Back to this game, the Bills continue to spin their wheels without any discernible progress. J.P. Losman is terrible and it makes me sad. I have a soft spot for quarterbacks who are trying to avoid the bust label. I held out hope for Tim Couch for sooooo long. This one could be ugly as Willis McGahee is out for the Bills. I don't think Losman is capable of doing anything to positively influence this game for Buffalo.

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons - Falcons

I don't feel much like talking about this game or analyzing the Browns chances. But I realized this week that I can't remember the last time the Browns won a game against an opponent when nobody gave them a chance. I think you have to go back to at least December 28, 2003 when the Browns beat the Bengals in Cincinnati, eliminating the Bengals from playoff contention. It might even be October of 2003 when the Browns thrashed the Steelers 33-13 in Pittsburgh on Sunday night in primetime. A win today would be such a boost for the fanbase and the team.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles

You probably have to give credit to the Redskins for their effort last Sunday against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, it was such a fluke win that I can't really offer any praise. The team really needs to stop playing Mark Brunell. I wish I knew a Redskins fan so I could hear their thoughts on the direction of the team. They are 3-5 and I don't think they have another miracle playoff run like the one they put together last year. I like the Eagles to win handily, especially coming off a bye week and before that, three consecutive devastating losses by a combined twelve points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins - Dolphins

You have to think that you will see a different Dolphin team the second half of the season. An emotional win against previously unbeaten Chicago, in which few gave them any chance, should bolster team morale. I think they find a way to steal this game from Kansas City. If the Chiefs do win, I must tip my cap and recognize the job Herm Edwards has done, keeping Kansas City in the playoff hunt despite an 0-2 start. I just have a feeling about the Dolphins on this Sunday in November.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans - Ravens

I was passionately involved in the Bengal/Raven contest last Sunday. You can ask my buddy Jake. The Ravens turned two Bengal miscues in the first five minutes of the contest into fourteen points and the Baltimore offense didn't muster another touchdown. They are pathetic. What really drove me crazy was the fact that when the Bengals used zone coverage and blitz schemes, Cincinnati was able to take away Baltimore's short passing attack. On three different occasions when Cincinnati was in zone, Bengals defenders dropped potential interceptions. The Ravens had no business winning that game. I refuse to even consider them a Super Bowl contender. A team with merely a decent defense and a mistake-free offense beats the Ravens every time. Ahhh, I am going insane. To think, they are going to win the AFC North with little difficulty makes me sick. And I thought this was the toughest division in football. My mistake.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders - Broncos

This one should be ugly. In fairness, I thought the Steelers/Raiders contest would be ugly too. One sure thing is that Andrew Walter will be sacked multiple times this afternoon. I wonder if the spread for this game is higher than the over/under number on how many sacks Denver will pile up today?

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers - Saints

So it is official: I am abandoning my position on the Steelers. I don't think it is possible for them to turn their season around. How many times did they turn the ball over inside the Denver 10 last week? Four is the number I heard. The Steelers at home used to be something you could hang your hat on. Not anymore. The Saints impressed me last week with a win in Tampa, helping to ease the sting from the terrible game they played against the Ravens two weeks ago. Winning today would erase any lingering doubts. Beating the Steelers at Heinz Field takes a team effort. Pittsburgh's offense remains dangerous and their defense is still capable of wreaking havoc in the backfield with their aggressive blitzing schemes.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals - Cowboys

Dallas reminds me of hmm, well nobody comes to mind. They have been involved in some absolutely bizarre outcomes. However, I am not sure any top last week's game against the Redskins. Three potential game-winning kicks in 31 seconds, are you kidding me? What's strange is that when I think about the games each of the two teams have been involved in, I feel like I should have somehow been able to predict that. Anyway, the Cowboys should win this game to help prolong their playoff hopes in this tumultuous 2006 season. Dennis Green's team is now playing for his job in 2007. I wouldn't want to be in Green's position.

St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks - Rams

Maurice Morris is no Larry Johnson. The Rams are susceptible to the run but the Seahawks really aren't capable of generating much offense without Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. That said, I like the Rams to find a way to win this game. If it hadn't been for Hasselbeck's heroics in St. Louis, the inconsistent Rams would be playing for the division lead. This is a must-win if the Rams want to be considered a legitimate playoff team.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants - Bears

I have enjoyed a fair amount of success riding the Giants this season. However, I don't like this matchup for New York. The Bears received their first jolt of reality last Sunday. The Bears defense was punished by Ronnie Brown to the tune of 157 yards rushing. Chicago's defense is going to come ready to play. I think the Bears will have a conservative game plan on offense to try to help limit Rex Grossman's mistakes. I see the Bears winning a slugfest on a late field goal.

Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers - Panthers

The Panthers are right there next to the Bengals and Falcons. I have no idea how this team manages to lose with the amount of talent they have. The Panthers have nobody to blame but themselves for their disappointing 4-4 record. Coming off a bye week, I suspect Carolina will emerge in the second half and establish itself as a legitimate candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.